World Risk Updates

Bahrain

Security forces dispersed several hundred Shia demonstrators near the capital Manama on 18 December. The demonstrators gathered near a roundabout on the Budaiya highway for the fourth day in a row, until police stormed the area forcing them out. Tensions continue to simmer in Bahrain and are unlikely to dissipate until the opposition feel that they are being listened to by the government.

Côte d’Ivoire

Following a local dispute, at least six people were killed by the government's new army, the Republican Forces of Côte d’Ivoire, after armed youths raided military barracks on 17 December in Vavoua in the west. The undisciplined and fragile nature of the country's armed forces - comprised of former warring factions - has sparked regular clashes since the end of post-election hostilties. Rebuilding the security apparatus is President Ouattara's biggest challenge.

DRC

After the Supreme Court confirmed Kabila's re-election, opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi called for the DRC armed forces to stop obeying Kabila. Kabila is due to be sworn in on 20 December, but Tshisekedi has declared himself president. Tshisekedi has departed from conciliatory calls for peaceful protest and is stepping on dangerous ground, risking a full-scale return to widespread violence.

Egypt

Security forces wielding batons and firing teargas clashed on 19 December with rock-throwing demonstrators who continue to call for an end to military rule. At least one person was killed in the latest clashes, bringing the total number of casualties in the recent spate of violence to 11. The demonstrations have been largely confined to the Midan Tahrir area of the city; however, there is potential for clashes to spill-over into adjoining streets in the downtown area.

Kazakhstan

15 people were reportedly killed following riots in the western region of Mangistau. The unrest was sparked on 16 December by striking oil workers in the town of Zhanaozen during independence celebrations; the violence subsequently spread to Shetpe and the regional capital, Aktau. Security personnel are likely to take an increasingly heavy-handed approach to quelling any further possible outbreaks of unrest.

North Korea

Kim Jong Il's abrupt death leaves his son Jong Un as his designated heir, although attention is likely to focus on his brother-in-law Jang Song Taek, who is expected to act as caretaker while Kim Jong Un consolidates control. South Korea’s military, supported by 28,500 US troops, is currently on high alert as developments are monitored. The current expectation is for a continuation of the status quo, where Pyongyang will continue to use its nuclear programme to leverage foreign aid where the potential for increased foreign policy tensions and the possibility of small scale military attacks on South Korea continues. It is likely the DPRK’s foreign policy will remain erratic.

US

President Obama has signed in a spending bill which will avoid forcing the closedown of certain government agencies such as defence and labour, as previously agreed. The move prevents tax rises for most workers but protects the emergency welfare benefits currently received by millions of Americans. Although the legislative battles on Capitol Hill are expected to continue, this bill provides for government financing through to September 2012, which will come as a relief to Obama as he heads into the elections.

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Source: AKE

Iraq Weekly Roundup, 19 December 2011

Summary

Levels of violence fell in Iraq over the past week, with at least 33 people killed and 84 injured. Attacks were concentrated in Mosul, Baghdad and Kirkuk, with a scattering of incidents through the central provinces and a notable bombing attack on oil and gas infrastructure in Basrah province.

Tactics

At least 26 bomb attacks left 15 people dead and 77 injured, a decline from the previous week, while a consistent number of small arms fire attacks left 15 people dead and seven injured. There was only one indirect fire (rocket or mortar) attack reported but it caused no casualties or damage. There were no suicide attacks recorded over the course of the week, and the country should now be considered statistically overdue.

Abductions

Three people were kidnapped in separate incidents, including a mayor in Babil province who was later found shot dead. Three ministry employees abducted last week were also found shot dead in Salah ad-Din province. A rare abduction was also recorded in Kurdistan, although the victim was freed very quickly by a security force operation.

The Withdrawal

Meanwhile AKE issued a risk advisory for Iraq on Global Intake following the withdrawal of US forces from the country which concluded on 17 December. Counter-insurgency operations on the ground will no longer take place while training of the Iraqi security forces has also been significantly scaled back. The country now faces a security gap, which various threat groups, both domestic and external may attempt to capitalise on. Violence may therefore rise over the course of 2012, not least as the political environment appears to growing more competitive and 

confrontational

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Source: AKE

Risk Update Worldwide

Bahrain
On 9 December riot police fired tear gas at hundreds of anti-government demonstrators attempting to march from the village of Musalla to the east of Manama, towards the pearl roundabout, which became the focus of pro-democracy unrest between January and March. Tensions remain, particularly among the country’s Shi’ah majority, and there is an ongoing risk of anti-government demonstrations that have the potential to turn violent.

Lebanon
Six people were injured when an improvised explosive device was detonated next to a UNIFIL peacekeeping patrol in the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon on 9 December. The attack was the third targeting the international force this year, which is made up of mainly French and Italian troops. Further attacks are likely; it remains unclear who is responsible.

Libya
Gunfights broke out near the international airport on 11 December when militiamen opened fire on the convoy of army chief Major-General Khalifa Haftar. The initial incident was followed by hours of armed clashes, with army officials claiming that former rebel militiamen from the Zintan brigade were responsible for the initial attack. Tensions are likely to increase further in the capital as a deadline for militia groups to return home moves closer.

Mexico
A professor at Pachuca Polytechnic University was injured by a letter bomb on 8 December. The academic belongs to the institution's security committee and is the third attack of its type this year. Radical, single-issue groups, such as one that opposes nanotechnology, are known to campaign strongly in academic institutions across the country; the attack highlights the terrorist threat posed by these groups as well as other, better-known elements in the country.

Peru
In an unexpected move, Prime Minister Saloman Lerner resigned on 10 December, prompting the rest of the cabinet to stand down in accordance with Peruvian law. President Humala was forced into a considerable cabinet reshuffle, as part of which a number of his friends and confidantes have been given key portfolios. Lerner was a popular man and his departure has unsettled those key sectors of Peruvian society that have been less than impressed with the President's unsympathetic attitude towards striking miners.

Russia
Thousands of protesters took to the streets in Moscow on 10 December to demand political reforms and a rerun of parliamentary elections. The protests were the largest Moscow has seen for several years and were notable for the lack of arrests and violence which often mar opposition activities. On 12 December, President Medvedev rejected calls for a rerun to be held but ordered a probe to be held into electoral fraud allegations.

Syria
At least 18 people were killed in clashes around the country on 11 December. In Homs, 11 people were killed; there are concerns that the military may be preparing for a full military assault on the city. Violence was also reported in northern Idlib province and in the south of the country near the Jordanian border. A general strike called by opposition activists was observed in some parts of Damascus although fear of reprisals by pro-government militias likely kept many at home.


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Source: AKE

AKE Iraq Weekly Roundup, 12 December 2011

Summary
Levels of violence fell slightly in Iraq over the past week but conditions are still higher than most weeks in November. At least 76 people were killed and 165 injured in nationwide attacks with incidents concentrated in Baghdad, Mosul and Kirkuk, as well as southern Salah ad-Din province, western Diyala province and central Babil province.

Tactics
At least 35 separate bomb attacks left 61 people dead and 150 injured while small arms fire left 14 people dead and four injured. A rise in indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) left one person dead and 11 injured. Two separate mortar attacks in Baghdad occurred near Muthanna airbase and Baghdad International Airport although they caused no damage or casualties.

Ashura Violence
As warned, terrorists targeted Shi’ah pilgrims gathering to mark Ashura, with bombs and indirect fire against religious worshippers in Kirkuk, Baghdad and Babil province. However, heightened security by the authorities over the last two weeks meant that there were no attacks in Karbala province, the main focus of the event. There were no suicide bombings reported countrywide during the week.

Energy Sector Attacks
Two North Oil Company employees were killed in separate bombing attacks in Kirkuk, marking the first direct attack on the energy sector in over a month. An Iraqi private security firm also came under attack in Salah ad-Din province, with one guard killed and another injured in a shooting on 11 December.

Kidnap for Ransom
Five people were abducted in separate incidents, including a child in Kirkuk and four ministry employees in Salah ad-Din province. An academic was also released from captivity in exchange for a six-figure ransom sum (in US dollars).

The Withdrawal
The US military withdrawal continues, with hundreds of troops crossing the border into Kuwait every day. At the time of writing there remain 6,000 in the country with most set to leave by 20 December. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Maliki is in Washington to discuss post-withdrawal relations with the US.


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Source: AKE

Deterioration Ahead of the Pullout

Many are concerned that conditions could worsen in Iraq once the US military has withdrawn its forces from the country. Troops are required to leave by the end of the year and the pullout is already well underway. Hundreds of transport vehicles are currently snaking their way south towards the Kuwaiti border. Most of the troops are likely to have left the country by Christmas. Concerns are not being eased by a recent bomb in the International/Green Zone and a rise in violence over the course of November.

At least 200 people were killed and over 560 injured in violent incidents over the course of the month. Of the dozens of recorded attacks over a third targeted civilians. However, it was the security forces who bore the brunt of the violence. Over half of all the attacks targeted either the Iraqi police or military.

Government employees, particularly those working in ministries in the capital, were the next most commonly targeted group. After that the Sahwah organisation suffered the next greatest number of targeted shootings and bombings in the central provinces. The US military suffered a handful of attacks, but they will now go into decline as the force crosses the border into Kuwait.

Militant Targeting in November

Commercial interests remain at risk of attack in Iraq but they remain targeted only infrequently. The oil and gas sector was not targeted at all over the course of the month, although a bombing in Basrah the day before a notable oil and gas conference served as a sharp reminder of the security issues facing private businesses. Two recent attacks on North Oil Company employees in Kirkuk also illustrate that the hydrocarbon sector is far from immune.

The economic potential in Iraq is significant so would-be investors should not be put off by ongoing violence. The operating environment simply requires a different approach from a health and safety perspective. The industry-wide principles of preparation, training, protection, intelligence and insurance are as applicable in Iraq as in other industry hotspots such as Algeria, Angola and Nigeria. Risk-aware companies which prepare themselves appropriately for investing securely in the country will likely find themselves far ahead of their competitors.

Source: IRAQ BUSSINES  & AKE 

Iraq's monthly death toll decreases in November

 The monthly death toll among Iraqis from violence sharply deceased in November comparing to the previous month, Iraqi authorities said Saturday.

A total of 187 people have been killed by attacks during November across the country, including 112 civilians and 75 security members, according to figures compiled by Iraqi ministries of interior, defense and health.

November's death toll is much lower than that of October when the authorities announced the death of a total of 258 Iraqis.

The last month's figures also showed that a total of 325 people were wounded during the month, including 205 security members.

However, May's death toll was the lowest since December 2010, when the authorities announced the death of 151 Iraqis.

The decline in last month's toll came despite fears by observers that the ongoing drawdown of U.S. troops from the country could open the door for insurgents to launch a new wave of violence.

On Oct. 21, U.S. President Barack Obama announced that all U.S. troops stationed in Iraq will completely pull out of the country by the end of this year, and the Iraq War will be over.

Under the security pact named Status of Forces Agreement signed late in 2008 between Baghdad and Washington, the United States would pull out all its troops from the country by Dec. 31.

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Source: xinhuanet

World Piracy Report

AKE's maritime analyst Rory Lamrock warned that hijackings were likely to rise over the coming weeks.

"The Indian Ocean Monsoon will draw to a close by the end of the month, which will make it easier for pirates to travel out into open waters and attack vessels."

Speaking at the high profile Offshore Europe oil and gas conference in Aberdeen, Lamrock also warned that shipping interests associated with the oil and gas sector were as much at risk as anyone else.

"Pirates have demonstrated their intent to attack all types of vessels, from private yachts to Very Large Crude Carriers. Oil tankers in particular are an attractive target because they tend to result in a higher than normal ransom sum when they are eventually freed."

The report findings also indicate that there was an overall decline in pirate activity off East Africa over the course of August, due largely to the ongoing monsoon in the Indian Ocean. 

Elsewhere in the world, Southeast Asia and Latin America both saw a rise in reported attacks, as incidents of opportunistic theft continue to occur.

According to Andrew Kain, the CEO of AKE, vessels need to ensure security self-sufficiency when transiting waters afflicted by piracy.

"While naval warships are patrolling the Gulf of Aden the reality is that they cannot protect every vessel from attack."

"They are also very concentrated in a small body of water, whereas Somali pirates are active in the wider Indian Ocean. It would be impossible to patrol such a large area effectively."

Vessel operators need to take measures to protect their own ships, crew and cargo, according to Kain. Precautions such as crew training, barbed fire fences and the use of citadels or safe-rooms are all recommended to make it as difficult as possible for pirates to gain access to the bridge and crew.

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Source: AKE

How Iraq’s Religious Parties Attempted To Seize Power In The Post-Invasion Vacuum

In April 2003, the government of Saddam Hussein fell. With it went the bureaucracy and the security forces. Into this vacuum stepped local Shiite clerics and exile political parties, all attempting to take advantage of the chaos to seize power. The Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) in coordination with Iran moved in thousands of its militiamen. Moqtada al-Sadr’s followers tried to take over in major cities, and killed one of his main rivals. The SIIC and Sadrists were not only able to take control of some areas of the country during this period, but set the stage for them to become the new leaders of Iraq.
The Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) was one of the largest and most well organized parties to step into the void created by the overthrow of Saddam. As early as November 2001, the SIIC’s militia, the Badr Brigade met with friendly tribes, to begin planning for post-Saddam Iraq. Badr told the sheikhs to take over government offices after the impending U.S. invasion. This was coordinated with the Iranians, which the SIIC had close ties to. The Supreme Council’s founders Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim and Sayid Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who came from one of Iraq’s leading religious families, fled to Iran during the Iran-Iraq War where they created the party. They pledged allegiance to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard created the Badr Brigade to help in its war with Baghdad. The Supreme Council would later forge ties with the Americans, participating in various opposition meetings before the March 2003 invasion. The U.S. ended up picking the SIIC as being the main Shiite party it would work with, despite its ties to Iran. This was partly due to its connections with other leading opposition parties like the Kurds and the Iraqi National Congress, all of which the SIIC had worked with for years. In the new Iraq, the Hakims were hoping to play upon their name, opposition to Saddam, support from Tehran, and organization to take advantage of the U.S. invasion. This gave it an early lead to become one of the new powers in the country.

Immediately after the March 2003 invasion, the SIIC sent in thousands of its Badr Brigade fighters into Iraq. They positioned some in Kurdistan before the attack, while others moved in from Iran. The United States was aware of these moves, and warned Badr that it would be attacked if it were encountered during the invasion. In April 2003, the U.S. deployed peshmerga and Special Forces into Diyala province to try to block Badr from entering from Iran there. Neither of these actions deterred the Supreme Council however. The Badr Brigade was able to seize key cities in Diyala, and ended up fighting Baathists, Sunni tribes, and the Iranian-opposition party Mujahedeen e-Khalq in the province. This forced the United States to try to disarm the Badr, which only partially worked. The SIIC also moved to seize power in southern Iraqi cities like Basra, Najaf, and Karbala. In Kut, the capital of Wasit for example, SIIC cleric Sayid Abbas Fadhil claimed control of the city, and took over the city hall before U.S. forces arrived. The Badr Brigade also began assassinating Baathists. While being nominally aligned with the United States, the Supreme Council proved to have its own agenda. The SIIC had been waiting for twenty years for the fall of Saddam, and were not going to pass up the opportunity to assert itself across Iraq. They moved into Shiite areas of northern and southern Iraq, went after their opponents like former regime members, and set themselves up as the new government in parts of the country.

Moqtada al-Sadr was also active during this period. First, Ayatollah Kadhem al-Hussein al-Haeri, a leading cleric based in Qom, Iran, appointed Sadr his representative in Iraq on April 7, 2003. The next day, al-Haeri issued a Fatwa calling on Shiites to seize power, and to oppose the United States. At the same time, Sadrists began asserting their control over Sadr City in Baghdad and southern Iraq, setting up offices, banning alcohol, and making women wear veils. On April 10, Sadr’s followers assassinated one of Moqtada’s main rivals, Sayid Abdul Majid al-Khoei in the Imam Ali shrine in Najaf, and surrounded the house of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most senior cleric in Iraq, threatening him as well. Like the Supreme Council, the Sadrists tried to take over local administration in several of the country’s cities. Sadr’s followers also began working at the grass roots level with their offices that distributed social services to build up its support. Sadr went on to directly challenge his rivals by assassinating Sayid Khoei and threatening Ayatollah Sistani. Those events set the trend for the Sadrists as they would become the main movement of the Shiite poor, as well as one of the more violent militias.

Both the Hakims and Sadr were able to translate their early moves after the U.S. invasion into political power in post-Saddam Iraq. In 2003, Sayid Abdul Aziz Hakim became a member of the Iraqi Governing Council put together by the Coalition Provisional Authority. The Sadrists led two revolts in 2004, and became the major Shiite opposition group to the Americans. In 2005, the two parties decided to work together in the United Iraqi Alliance, which ended up winning the most seats in parliament in the two elections held that year. They then took over local administrations, provincial councils, governorships, and police forces in southern Iraq as a result. They then turned on Sunnis in response to the constant sectarian attacks by groups like Al Qaeda in Iraq, as well as fighting each other for dominance of southern Iraq. The United States was caught flatfooted to deal with any of this. They did not expect the government to totally collapse in the wake of the invasion, and did nothing during the chaotic weeks that followed when the war was officially over. That space allowed groups like the Supreme Council and Sadrists to rise to prominence. The SIIC turned out to be the party, the United States decided to work with, because it was willing to cooperate with them, while the Sadrists were considered a threat, because they constantly called for the Americans to leave the country, and were willing to use force to achieve that. Today, both parties remain members of the government, which is in part, the result of their aggressive moves to seize power in the wake of the U.S. invasion.
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Source: AK News

Weekly Security Update for 7th December 2011

As the US military withdrawal continues, many are worried at the possibility of increased militancy over the coming year in Iraq. Levels of violence rose over the past week with the highest number of casualties recorded in six months. As warned, terrorists targeted Shi’ah worshippers gathering to commemorate Ashura, with a number of attacks in Baghdad and the central provinces. However, the authorities reported no violent incidents in the revered city of Karbala where many of the worshippers were actually travelling to which is grounds for some optimism over the capability of the Iraqi security forces. Meanwhile, unrest in Kurdistan over the weekend illustrates that even in the quiet north there remains the potential for political violence.

NorthMob violence left several properties damaged in the town of Zakhu in Dahuk province on 2 December. Shortly after Friday prayers a crowd of young men roused by a particularly inflammatory sermon, began attacking properties associated with the sale of alcohol. These included several Christian and Yazidi-owned shops and at least two hotels. Dahuk has consistently been amongst the quietest provinces in Iraq since 2003 but the incident highlights the fact that even here care should be exercised. Close attention should be paid to localised developments while hotels are advised to review their security measures. Otherwise, the Kurdish region remains stable and the majority of commercial and industrial interests will be unaffected by the latest unrest. Organisations should simply be mindful of current cultural sensitivities while personnel should consider exercising discretion if consuming alcohol.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

CentreUnlike several other parts of the country levels of violence fell in Baghdad over the past week with security heightened for Ashura. Nonetheless, a number of attacks marked the date, demonstrating that terrorists still have the ability to operate in the city and conduct attacks even for events the security forces have been specifically preparing for. Foreign nationals have also been alarmed by last week’s bombing in the International/Green Zone while the US state department has altered its advice on travel to the country with many now concerned that the risk of kidnap has increased. With almost 80 people abducted in the country so far this year Iraq should still be considered a kidnap hotspot. Personnel should exercise caution and bear in mind that even the fortified IZ is not completely ‘safe’.

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Resource: AKE-Iraq

Worldwide Risk Updates 5,Dec. 11

Afghanistan 
A suicide bomber killed three and injured around 70 after he tried to penetrate the outer perimeter of Combat Outpost McClain. The attack is suspected to be the work of the Haqqani network, after an ISAF mission captured the commander they allege to be responsible. The significance of the attack is drawn from its location; Logar province, along with Wardak, is seen to be crucial in terms of its position to ensure long term security in Kabul. The fact that this is the second large attack in six weeks in the region suggests that that insurgents can relatively easily carry out attacks in the future and that travel to bases in Logar and Wardak, particularly when entering and exiting, is considered high risk.

Bahrain
An improvised explosive device (IED), placed under a vehicle by unidentified militants, was detonated near the British embassy in the capital Manama on 4 December. No casualties were reported following the incident, which comes amid ongoing tensions and anti-government demonstrations in and around the capital.

Egypt
The Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party is expected to be the major winner from the first round of elections to the country’s lower house. Egyptians are scheduled to return to the polls on 5 December for run-off votes that will conclude the first round of voting. Another two rounds will be held for other parts of the country, and will conclude on 11 January. The Salafist al-Nour Party is also expected to perform well in the first round, a result that may add to uncertainty among investors and the business community.
 
Libya-Tunisia
Tunisia closed all its border crossing points with Libya on 4 December following clashes between militiamen and border guards at the Dehiba border crossing which leads to the Nafusa Mountains region of Libya. The main crossing at Ras Ajidir was also closed following the clash, which led Deputy Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagur to promise measures will be put in place to secure both crossings.

Pakistan
As reported in the last two AKE Kidnap reports, kidnappers in Pakistan are increasingly targetingBritish citizens of Pakistani origin returning for business or to visit family. The UK Serious Organised Crimes Agency reported a three-fold leap in the number taken between 2006 and 2008, while incomplete data is likely to mean that the actual figure is higher. Please email intel@akegroup.comfor more information regarding our Kidnap Report and quarterly brief.

Russia
Exit polls indicate that ruling United Russia party is set to lose its constitutional majority in the State Duma, although is likely to retain a simple majority amidst allegations of widespread electoral fraud. The result will come as a blow to Prime Minister Putin, who is to run in presidential elections in March, although he is still unlikely to face any real opposition. President Medvedev is set to see his legitimacy fall, and plans to install him as Prime Minister under a Putin presidency are likely to come under increased scrutiny.

Serbia-Kosovo
Serbia and Kosovo agreed on 2 December to cooperate over their volatile common border in an agreement which is set to see the gradual establishing of integrated crossing points. A number of KFOR personnel had been injured in skirmishes in recent weeks and the stalemate had been seen as hindering Belgrade's EU aspirations. Serbian President Tadic has now called on Serb Kosovars to respect the deal, in the hopes that Serbia will be able to fulfill EU candidacy conditions.




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Resource: AKE Intel.

Iraq Weekly Roundup, 5 December 2011

Summary Levels of violence rose in Iraq over the past week. At least 94 people were killed and 168 injured in nationwide violence, making it the worst week since a series of bombings caused havoc in mid-June. As the US military withdrawal continues, many Iraqis are increasingly worried at the possibility of rising violence over the coming year. As warned, terrorists have begun targeting Shi’ah worshippers gathering to commemorate Ashura (which will culminate on 5-6 December). Further attacks should be expected over the coming 48 hours, particularly around the central provinces where many will congregate around mosques to mark the anniversary of the death of Imam Hussein. A rise in non-suicide bomb attacks last week left 38 people dead and 123 injured last week while at least four separate suicide attacks left 23 people dead and 30 injured, although had it not been for the vigilance of the Iraqi security forces who managed to prevent some of the attackers inflicting extensive damage the death toll would have been higher. Some of the more notable blasts occurred in Taji, Khalis and even the normally well defended International Zone, highlighting the fact that there are no grounds for complacency.  Unrest in Zakhu and Sulaymaniyah over the weekend also illustrates that even in the quiet Kurdish region there remains the potential for political violence. Small arms fire attacks left 29 people dead and 15 injured last week while there were no incidents of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) recorded at all. Otherwise, a Kurdish civilian was abducted in Kirkuk last week while foreigners are reminded of the ongoing risk of abduction for political purposes. November Review AKE has compiled figures of violence over the course of November.  At least 200 people were killed and over 560 injured during the month. A third of attacks targeted civilians, but over half of all attacks targeted either the police or Iraqi military. Government employees, particularly those working in ministries in the capital, were the next most commonly targeted group. After that the Sahwah organisation suffered the next greatest number of targeted shootings and bombings in the central provinces. The US military suffered a handful of attacks, but they will now go into decline as the force crosses the border into Kuwait. The media suffered at least three separate attacks, as did religious interests, academics and members of the medical profession. Commercial interests remain at risk but they remain targeted only infrequently. Note that the oil and gas sector was not targeted at all over the course of the month. Frequency of Attacks According to AKE figures, Baghdad remains the most hazardous part of Iraq, followed closely by Ninawa province, particularly its provincial capital Mosul. Both areas see an average of at least one violent incident per day at present. The next most hazardous provinces are Ta’mim (Kirkuk), Anbar, Diyala, Salah ad-Din and Babil. The southern provinces remain far more quiet, although they should not be considered ‘safe’. A bomb attack in central Basrah province served as a reminder to foreign companies that security measures will remain an important consideration for anyone looking to invest in the region. The security forces, both US and Iraqi, also continue to locate and make safe explosive devices along the key routes in the southern region. ___________________________________________________ Resource: AKE Intel.

ANALYZING: THE STORMING OF THE BRITISH EMBASSY IN TEHRAN

Summary
Students protesting at the British Embassy in the Iranian capital Nov. 29 breached the embassy's walls. The incident occurred a day after Iran's Guardian Council voted to downgrade diplomatic relations with the United Kingdom. The protests will cause diplomatic security concerns and put other missions in Tehran on notice. However, the Nov. 29 protests are not out of line with other anti-British incidents that have occurred in Iran, and the embassy staff appears to have been prepared for it.

Analysis
Iranian student protesters breached the walls of the British Embassy in Tehran on Nov. 29 and entered the diplomatic compound. The incident came a day after Iran's Guardian Council approved a bill downgrading diplomatic relations with the United Kingdom from the ambassadorial level to one of charge d'affaires.

From a diplomatic security perspective, the incident certainly is alarming and will put other missions in the Iranian capital on notice. However, put into a larger context, the Nov. 29 incident is congruent with previous anti-British incidents in Iran, and the embassy's staff appears to have been prepared for it.

Images from the front of the embassy Nov. 29 showed students climbing over the fence and gates, entering what was reported to be a guard booth and allegedly setting fire to it. Similar protests occurred at the British Embassy's residential compound elsewhere in Tehran. Images from both compounds clearly show protesters entering the grounds and some peripheral buildings. The protesters reportedly called for the embassy to be taken over and chanted, "Death to England." Unconfirmed social media reports indicate that protesters actually made it inside the administrative buildings. Foreign press reports citing British and local law enforcement officials indicate that six embassy staff members could have been caught up in the protests at the residential compound. Embassy staff evacuated the compound as soon as the protests began, and there were no indications of injuries to diplomatic staff or anyone else. After several attempts and what appears to have been use of force, riot police cleared the compounds of protesters and established a security perimeter around the buildings -- but not before the protesters could pose for cameras and reporters.

Security at diplomatic missions such as the British Embassy and residential compound in Tehran comprises several concentric rings of increasingly hard barriers. Local police typically serve as the first line of defense for any diplomatic mission. They take charge of protecting the streets surrounding the mission and, in some cases, even restrict traffic on these streets. Within that circle stands a wall or fence surrounding the compound. Images from the British Embassy in Tehran indicate that this barrier was not insurmountable, and the images show no police attempting to stop the protesters. Walls alone do not keep people out; they merely make it more difficult to enter and serve as a tool to help police contain a situation. 

At the British Embassy compound -- as in most Western diplomatic compounds in high-risk countries -- a large standoff distance separates the embassy building and the perimeter wall. This distance gives security personnel at the embassy time and space to react to perimeter breaches and provides space to absorb attacks involving explosives. The actual embassy building is hardened with ballistic glass and reinforced concrete, and within embassies such as these are safe rooms where staff can rally in the direst situations. It appears that security staff at the British Embassy successfully avoided confrontation by evacuating the embassy long before protesters made it inside, thus eliminating the need to test the absolute limits of the embassy’s security.

The police in Tehran initially did not work to keep people from breaching the perimeter barrier. Protesters appeared to climb over the wall easily and open the gate protecting the main entrance to the embassy. Most images show the protesters entering the guard booth at the compound's entrance, which serves as a third layer of security. There was no indication that guards stationed at the entrance (usually local national private guards) attempted to control the crowd or were even present. Iranian authorities have in the past clearly demonstrated the ability to prevent protests at the British Embassy -- as in June 2009, when authorities prevented protesters from demonstrating at the embassy over the United Kingdom's alleged involvement in post-election unrest. Iranian authorities appear to have chosen to allow the Nov. 29 protests to happen.

However, the staff at the British Embassy appears to have used perhaps an embassy staff's most important security measure: preparedness. Given the history of incidents involving the British Embassy in Tehran, protests like those seen Nov. 29 should not come as a surprise. In 2008, protesters breached the same diplomatic residential compound and caused superficial property damage. In 2009, Iranian authorities arrested eight British diplomats, claiming that they illegally assisted the opposition during protests following that year's June elections. The Iranian government has long tried to force the United Kingdom to abandon the Qolhak Gardens, where the residential compound is located. This desire has often led to public protests against the British presence there. British staff at the embassy in Tehran would be acutely aware of the environment's hostility and would plan its security accordingly.

Acknowledging a threat and creating contingency plans to deal with it is just as important to diplomatic security as perimeter walls and reinforced concrete. Given the history of protests against the United Kingdom’s diplomatic presence in Iran and the failure of Iranian police to always provide adequate security, the embassy's security officers most likely were prepared for the Nov. 29 incident. They appear to have done their jobs in protecting the diplomatic staff.

Iraq Weekly Roundup, 28 November 2011

Summary
Levels of violence rose in Iraq over the past week. At least 60 people were killed and 168 injured in nationwide attacks, concentrated in Baghdad, Mosul and Kirkuk. Non-suicide bomb attacks left 41 people dead and 146 injured, while at least three suicide bombings, all of which were relatively unsuccessful, left nine people injured. Earlier on Monday a fourth suicide attack has also struck a prison in Taji, on the northern fringes of Baghdad. At least 11 people are reported to have been killed. A blast, suspected to be a mortar, has also hit the International/Green Zone, with at least one person killed at the time of writing.

Terrorism
Earlier in the week terrorists attacked a busy marketplace in Basrah, the day before an international oil and gas conference began in the city, killing and injuring several people, including a large number of police officers.

Targeted Assassinations
There has also been a countrywide rise in the number of small arms attacks, which left 17 people dead and 11 injured last week. This increase denotes a rise in the number of targeted assassinations and security force personnel and ministry employees should be on their guard amid the risk of further such attacks over the coming weeks.

Tactics
Otherwise, a policeman and his son were abducted in Anbar province by unknown militants. A media worker was attacked by escaped unhurt in an incident in Bayaa district in Baghdad. Turkish military forces also continued their cross border operations in the Qandil Mountains. Fighting is continuing despite the onset of winter weather conditions, but the frequency of operations is likely to go into decline over the coming weeks.

The Coming Weeks
Meanwhile, last week saw the beginning of the Islamic New Year and holy month of Muharram. The Shi’ah community will now observe a period of mourning to commemorate the death of Imam Hussein. Religious travellers and worshippers are also likely to be targeted by terrorists over the coming six weeks.


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Source: AKE

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Iraq in a week 'Summary' till 21-Nov.

Summary
Levels of violence rose in Iraq over the past week, particularly in Mosul and the central provinces. At least 33 people were killed and 99 injured in nationwide attacks, which is double the figure recorded the previous week. A rise in bomb attacks left 21 people dead and 87 injured while small arms attacks left 10 people dead and 10 more injured. Indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) also left two people injured.

Notable Incidents
There was one attempted suicide bombing in the capital but the police managed to stop the would-be terrorists before they had the chance to detonate their significant amount of explosives. At least one person was kidnapped in the north of the country. The head of a local journalist association was also shot and injured in Diyala province.

The US Withdrawal
At the same time there have been at least three separate attacks on US military interests over the past seven days, and anxieties are growing countrywide over the prospects for stability once American troops have left. Militancy is likely to gradually rise following their departure, but it remains to be seen whether or not anticipated ebb and flow of violence will trigger any major escalation in militancy and civil unrest. Any journalists interested in covering the situation over the coming weeks who require assistance in the country please contact the AKE Iraq office at akebaghdad@akegroup.com.

Political Risk
Meanwhile, ExxonMobil has gone against express state wishes by signing oil and gas contracts with the Kurdish authorities. This puts central government in a very difficult position to which it may respond aggressively and even to the detriment of the investment climate.
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Source: AKE

BASRA - Several people were killed and dozens injured in a marketplace bombing in Basra on 24 November.

Coinciding with both Thanksgiving and the start of a major oil and gas conference the bombers may have been sending a signal to the international community.

Hundreds of US vehicles are currently snaking their way along Iraqi highways as part of the ongoing withdrawal from the country. There are also numerous foreign delegates in the city for the Basra International Oil and Gas conference. However, the marketplace was likely viewed as a softer target, easier for the terrorists to attack. Security remains an obstacle for firms looking to work in Iraq. However, conditions are still quieter in the oil-rich south of the country than in the central and northern regions. Despite the latest attack, Basra still sees far fewer incidents of violence than Baghdad, which bodes well for the numerous companies looking to work in the area. 
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Source: AKE