While last week was bloody in Iraq, levels
of violence actually fell slightly in the country from the week before.
Nonetheless, conditions should still be regarded as hostile, with dozens of
people killed in a series of suicide bombings towards the end of Ramadan. As
well as several such attacks in the centre of the country, one also hit the
comparatively quiet city of Basrah in the south. In the north of the country
the Turkish military also continues to target Kurdish terrorists based in the
mountains.
North
While the holy month of Ramadan has often
seen ceasefires signed between Iran, Turkey and the Kurdish separatists in the
past, 2011 saw continued Turkish attacks against suspected PKK installations.
However, while various political figures continue to criticise the action, and
a number of civilians have been killed or had their property damaged, the
operations are having little impact on the majority of businesses operating in
the region. Conversely, the adjacent cities of Mosul and Kirkuk remain very hostile,
with numerous bomb, shooting and even mortar attacks around the two cities last
week. The police and Iraqi army remain the primary target for local militant
groups, but an oil protection force officer and an employee of Bayji refinery
were also targeted in separate attacks last week. All sectors should be
considered at risk, with the oil and gas sector remaining an attractive target
for criminals and terrorists alike.
Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months
Centre
Levels of violence remain consistently high
in the centre of the country, with three suicide attacks recorded last week,
one in Fallujah, one in Karmah, and one in the west of Baghdad, targeting a
large and high profile Sunni mosque. There will remain a risk of further
suicide attacks after al-Qaeda in Iraq threatened to carry out 100 such attacks
from the middle of Ramadan. While similarly bold statements of intent have not
been fulfilled in the past the risk of mass casualty spectacular attacks should
nonetheless be considered elevated at this time. Personnel should therefore
avoid large gatherings of people, especially around religious sites, government
facilities, security force installations and commercial areas, as these are the
most attractive targets for terrorists intent on inflicting mass casualties.
South
Even the normally quiet south of the
country is at risk of such attacks, with one of the suicide bombings recorded
last week occurring in Basrah. The region should not be considered immune from
Islamist terrorism, despite the fact that suicide bombings are normally
associated with Sunni groups, whereas the southern provinces are predominantly
Shi’ah. Personnel are advised to maintain vigilance in the region and bear in
mind that there are no grounds for complacency.
- Get more
Intelligence tweets, follow me on: @MaxExpat
- Instant Reports
on SKYPE: Max.Expat
No comments:
Post a Comment