التقرير الأمني الاسبوعي في العراق

يستمر متشددين اسلاميين بقيادة الدولة الاسلامية  معركتهم مع قوات الأمن العراقية والكردية في عدة أجزاء من المنطقة الوسطى والشمالية. ومع ذلك، شهد الأسبوع الماضي أيضا قفزة في عدد من التفجيرات اتخذ الأربطة في جنوب العراق. وكانت الهجمات الجنوبية الصغيرة نسبيا من حيث الحجم ولكن توقيتها تشير إلى الجهود المنسقة التي هي مصدر قلق نظرا تدابير أمنية مشددة حاليا والتي من المفترض أن تكون في مكان في المنطقة.

بالاضافة الى الى 55 هجمات غير انتحارية خلفت 20 قتيلا و 96 جريحا. ستة تفجيرات انتحارية إضافية خلفت 25 قتيلا و 130 جريحا. خلفت هجمات بالأسلحة الصغيرة 11 شخصا بين قتيل وجريح واحد، بما في ذلك أعضاء من قوات الأمن خلال اشتباكات مع مسلحين. 

حوادث إطلاق النار غير المباشرة (الصواريخ وقذائف الهاون والقصف المدفعي العسكري) تركت 18 قتيلا و 45 جريحا. وورد أن 54 شخصا على الأقل اختطفوا، بما في ذلك أعداد كبيرة من أفراد قوات الأمن يعتقد انها اختطفت من قبل مسلحين في شمال البلاد (على الرغم من أن الأرقام الحقيقة الانه يصعب التحقق من صحتها كليا). انتشال السلطات أيضا ما يصل الى 42 جثة المهجورة في عدة مجالات.

الاستراتيجية الجديدة لهزيمة داعش

 تقول الولايات المتحدة ان تتظيم الدولة الإسلامية يشكل خطرا بالغا على الولايات المتحدة وحلفائها في الشرق الأوسط وحول العالم. تفيد تقارير أنها لا تخطط حاليا هجوم ضد امريكاا هي الراحة قليلا. موقعها، والموارد التي تسيطر عليها، مهارة وتصميم القادة والمقاتلين، وشدة فتكه أظهرت تمييزه من جماعات تنظيم القاعدة شبيهة أخرى. قدرته على تقديم الملاذ الآمن والدعم للإرهابيين يخططون لشن هجمات ضدنا هو أبعد من أي تهديد إرهابي رأيناه من أي وقت مضى. تشكل الآلاف من المواطنين الأمريكيين والأوروبيين الذين يقاتلون جنبا إلى جنب مع الدولة الإسلامية و جبهة النصرة في العراق وسوريا تهديدا غير مسبوق لأمن الولايات المتحدة كما تزعم امريكا بغض النظر عن ما إذا كانت تلك الجماعات تنوي مهاجمة امريكا. وتقول امريكا بان تنظيم الدولة الإسلامية يشكل خطرا واضحا وقائما على أمن الولايات المتحدة لابد من القضاء عليه بالكامل.

وضع استراتيجية لتحقيق هذا الهدف هو امر شاق وصعب جدا كما وان الوضع اليوم سيئ جدا والكثير من الزخم في الاتجاه الخاطئ أنه من المستحيل على التعبير عن مسار مباشر إلنهاية مقبولة في العراق وسوريا. الإهمال الأميركي من الأوضاع المتردية في كلا البلدين قد حرمتنا من التفاهم والاستخبارات على الأرض حتى الأساسية اللازمة لبناء استراتيجية. لذا يجب علينا اتباع نهج متكرر أن يختبر الافتراضات الأساسية، ويطور فهمنا، ويبني شراكات مع الأطراف الراغبة على الأرض، وخاصة العرب السنة في العراق الذين سيكون من الضروري وضع شروط لعمليات أكثر حسما لمتابعة.

التحدي الأساسي الذي يواجه الولايات المتحدة في العراق وسوريا هي المشكلة تمكين المجتمع من العرب السنة تمتد من بغداد إلى دمشق وتركيا إلى الأردن لهزيمة منتسبي القاعدة ومن تفرع منهم، في حين أن هذه الجماعات المتطرفة تتركز عمدا في المناطق ذات الأغلبية السنية. إقناع تلك المجتمعات للانضمام الدول اصلاحه في العراق وسوريا بعد أن مواسم طويلة من الصراع الداخلي تكون شاقة. لكن مشاركتهم في حلول أمن الدولة سيكون ضروريا لحرمان تنظيم القاعدة من العودة من جديد. العديد من هؤلاء السكان، وخاصة السوريين، قد يكونو قد فقدوا الثقة في هذه الرؤية ما بعد الحرب

المشكلة في سوريا هي سهلة نسبيا للدولة، ولكن صعبة للغاية لحلها. فقد نظام الأسد السيطرة على معظم أراضي الدولة السورية. قد انتهكت القانون الدولي أنه في مناسبات عديدة وفقدت شرعيتها كعضو في المجتمع الدولي. الأسد نفسه هو رمز من فظائع ووحشية النظام، والطائفية إلى السكان السنة في سوريا وجميع أنحاء المنطقة. وأثارت تصرفاته صعود الإسلاميين العنيف، لا سيما تنظيم #داعش و نظيم جبهة النصرة. لذلك يجب أن تكون استراتيجية الولايات المتحدة ضمان أن أيا من هذه الجهات الثلاث السيطرة على كل أو جزء من سوريا حين دعم تطوير بديل، الدولة السورية شاملة على مر الزمن

Iraq Security Weekly roundup

- Islamist militants led by the Islamic State (IS) continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region, especially to the north and west of Mosul, the belt of Anbar province stretching from Baghdad to the Syrian border as well as around Salah ad-Din and Diyala provinces (particularly around Amerli and the Hamrin Mountains). Fighting also continues in places such as Babil province and south-west of Kirkuk. Last week a total of 31 non-suicide bomb attacks left 30 people dead and 92 injured. Two additional suicide bombings left 12 people dead and 44 injured. Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 29 people dead and 35 injured.  Small arms attacks left six people dead and nine injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants. This is a relatively low figure and it is likely that many more shootings (including executions in areas under IS control) are likely to have gone unreported. At least 59 people were reportedly abducted in several incidents, although at least 20 have reportedly been released at the time of writing. Several abductees over recent months have not been so lucky. Up to 94 bodies were reportedly recovered by the authorities or sent to morgues in different parts of the country last week.

_______________ AKE

موجز الاحداث الامنية في العراق، الاسبوع ٤٠

 

خلال الأسبوع الماضي كان هناك ما يقارب 25 هجوما انفجارا خلّف 48 قتيلا و 161 جريحا. كما و خلفت الهجمات بالأسلحة الصغيرة 81 قتيلا و 28 جريحا، بينهم أفراد من قوات الأمن بالرصاص خلال اشتباكهم مع مسلحين، وإطلاق النار على عدد كبير من المدنيين السنة في مسجد في محافظة ديالى.

 

حوادث إطلاق النار غير المباشرة (الصواريخ وقذائف الهاون والقصف المدفعي العسكري) تركت 33 قتيلا و 43 جريحا.

 

و استمر متشددين اسلاميين بقيادة الدولة الإسلامية (IS) في معركتهم مع قوات الأمن الاتحادية والكردية في عدة أجزاء من المنطقة الوسطى والشمالية. البيشمركة الكردية، بدعم من الضربات من قبل القوة الجوية الأمريكية، تمكنت من ابعاد الخطوط الأمامية بعيدا عن الحكومة الإقليمية الكردية (حكومة إقليم كردستان) ولكن هل من المحتمل أن تنظيم صفوفهم حول الموصل، وهي مدينة غير المرجح أن تعود إلى سيطرة الحكومة لقدرا كبيرا من الوقت كما ان تنظيم داعش (الدولة الاسلامية) مسيطرا عليها بالكامل.

 

 

في أماكن أخرى، لا يزال القتال يتركز في المناطق ذات الكثافة السكانية العالية سنية المذهب، وخاصة المحافظات الشمالية والوسطى، في مناطق مثل محافظة الانبار (كل من المناطق الريفية والحضرية)، جنوب وغرب كركوك، وكما هو في جرف الصخر في محافظة بابل وديالى وبعض المدن من محافظة صلاح الدين. ولا تزال بغداد أيضا تحت وطأة الهجمات الإرهابية في مناطق متفرقة مهنا ذات الغالبية الشيعية.

 

 

لا تزال المنطقة الجنوبية في معظمها هادئة. الشمال تدار من قبل السلطات الكردية، كما هزت بعض انشطة تنظيم الدولة الاسلامية حول محيط الاقليم, في حين أن التدفق الكبير للاجئين المستمر سيستمر في الضغط على السلطات.

 

 

من جميع الحوادث سجلت اطلاق النار المسجد المذكور في محافظة ديالى يعرض أكبر سبب للقلق. ويمكن أن يشير إلى احتمالية عودة العنف الطائفي في المنطقة الوسطى مختلطة الطوائف. إذ ان زخم عمليات القتل الانتقامية في تصاعد و انها قد تؤدي الى تصعيد كبير في العنف والهجرة الجماعية الفورية للمدنيين في عدة مجالات.

Iraq Security Weekly roundup, week #40

Last week a total of 25 bomb attacks left 48 people dead and 161 injured. Small arms attacks left 81 people dead and 28 injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants, and a large number of Sunni civilians gunned down in a mosque in Diyala province. Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 33 people dead and 43 injured.

Islamist militants led by the Islamic State (IS) continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region. The Kurdish Peshmerga, supported by US air strikes, managed to push back the IS frontlines away from Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) territory but IS fighters are likely to regroup around Mosul, a city unlikely to return to government rule for a considerable amount of time.

Elsewhere, fighting remains concentrated in areas with large Sunni populations, particularly the northern and central provinces, in areas such as Anbar province (both rural and urban areas), south and west of Kirkuk, Jurf as-Sakhr in Babil province and Diyala and Salah ad-Din provinces. Baghdad also continues to see sporadic terrorist attacks.

The southern region remains mostly quiet. The Kurdish administered north, rattled by IS activities around its peripheries, also saw a rare bombing, while the ongoing significant influx of refugees will continue to put pressure on the authorities.

Of all the incidents recorded, the aforementioned mosque shooting in Diyala province perhaps presents the greatest cause of concern. It could signal the return of sectarian bloodshed in the mixed central region. If the momentum of revenge killings escalates it could lead to a significant escalation in violence and prompt mass migration of civilians in several areas.

_________

Resource: AKE

ISIS works on merge its norther front across Iraq and Syria.

Recent ISIS operations in Hasaka and Ninewa provinces indicate that ISIS has begun to further merge its northern battlefronts across the Syrian-Iraq border. ISIS is eradicating pockets of resistance that fall within the territory ISIS seeks to claim for its Caliphate, including the Iraqi city of Sinjar near the border in Ninewa province. ISIS seized the city of Sinjar on August 3, 2014 despite the protection of the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga forces, roughly 100 km east of Hasaka city, the provincial capital of the adjacent Syrian province. ISIS operations in these Northern provinces are likely linked, and the recent ISIS offensive in northern Iraq must be evaluated through a cross-border lens. Since mid-July ISIS has seized control of the Regiment 121 Artillery Base in Hasaka Province in addition to the Division 17 and Brigade 93 Bases in ar-Raqqa Province. ISIS forces also appear to be mobilizing to seize the final base in ar-Raqqa, the Tabqa Military Airbase. Significantly, these operations have proceeded in tandem with a campaign to remove internal threats to the Caliphate posed by isolated Syrian regime bases in ar-Raqqa province, and it appears ISIS is quickly moving toward a successful consolidation and hardening of its exterior borders in Northern Syria.

Hasaka Province

Since ISIS seized control of Mosul on June 10, ISIS has successfully merged its southern Deir ez-Zour and Anbar systems. Syria’s northeastern Hasaka Province is becoming a primary battleground as ISIS continues to consolidate its gains in Iraq and Syria and begins to merge its Hasaka and Ninewa areas of operation. Hasaka hosts important logistical lines of communication that connect ISIS strongholds in ar-Raqqa to recent ISIS gains in Ninewa, making Hasaka a significant front for ISIS operational planning. The province is also home to a large portion of Syria’s oil fields, a valuable strategic asset that ISIS has fought to control elsewhere in Syria. The main body of the Syrian opposition is largely absent from the province, where a low regime footprint and a large Kurdish population render it an undesirable area for most counter-regime forces in the Syrian opposition.[1]While Syrian Kurds in northern Syria declared their independence from the central government in the fall of 2013, they nonetheless cooperate at local levels with regime forces for purposes of social control.

The military arm of the de-facto independent Kurdish PYD party, the YPG, is in control of much of the province’s countryside and capitalizes on local support from Christian and Arab tribal elements to defend against ISIS incursions. The Kurdish Asayish security forces in charge of maintaining control inside city centers alsocoordinate locally with the regime’s NDF militias, which include units of Arab tribesmen from the al-Sharabiyin and al-Tay tribes in addition to elements of Christian militias. At the time of the fall of Mosul, the Syrian regime maintained control of the Qamishli airport and three hardened military bases throughout the province in addition to maintaining internal control within the major cities of Hasaka and Qamishli. The provincial capital of Hasaka City has remained under joint control between Syrian regime and Kurdish forces, each of which maintaincontrol over different neighborhoods with coordination to ensure service provision and quality of life within the city.

Rather than targeting these regime enclaves, ISIS operations within the province throughout June and early July were largely directed against YPG forces in the countryside surrounding the cities of Ras al-Ayn and Qamishli on the Turkish border. In these zones, small units of ISIS fighters operating in strategically located villages regularly contested terrain held by Kurdish YPG forces in the countryside and maintained limited pressure on regime and YPG resupply lines to Hasaka city. ISIS forces also leveraged support from local Arab tribal elements, including the Sharabia tribe, a local rival to the YPG-allied Shaamar tribe. The most significant ISIS stronghold in the province’s northern countryside is located at Tel Hamis deep within the countryside northeast of Hasaka City, which ISIS assumed firm control after successfully repulsing an attempt by the YPG to seize the village in early January 2014. South of the city, it is assessed that the ISIS stronghold at ash-Shaddadi continues to serve as a command headquarters for ISIS forces throughout eastern Syria in addition to facilitating cross-border lines of communication and transit into Iraq’s Ninewa province.

This ISIS activity in the Hasaka countryside focused on maintaining lines of communication that traverse the province in addition to creating sufficient operating room for ISIS forces to mobilize on other fronts. However, ISIS forces also conducted initial shaping operations to isolate Hasaka city from its flow of supplies from Qamishli to the north. ISIStargeted the areas surrounding Qamishli Airport with Grad rockets and conducted kidnappings of several bus passengers on the Hasaka-Qamishli road in late June. ISIS forces also continued to contest the towns of Tal Ma’arof, Kharab al-A’skar, and Tel Alo in the YPG-controlled countryside south of Qamishli throughout July. Interdicting a second major supply line to Hasaka City, ISIS has pressured YPG forces along the Ras al-Ayn – Hasaka road, targeting YPG forces in the vicinity of Tel Tamir, a town strategically located at the junction of two of the province’s major highways. An IED detonated in a car along the road between Hasaka City and Tel Tamir on July 3, killing a PYD council member and a member of the town’s Popular Council. In addition, an ISIS SVBIED reportedly disguised as a truck bringing supplies to the area targeted a YPG camp just northwest of Tel Tamir on the road to Ras al-Ayn on July 13, killing eight. While limited in scope, these attacks in the weeks prior to the attack on Sinjar demonstrate the ability of ISIS to penetrate deep into YPG-controlled territory in zones likely marked for future incorporation into the Islamic State.

ISIS advances against critical regime installations

ISIS significantly escalated attacks against the Syrian regime throughout much of northeastern Syria beginning in mid-July. ISIS forces attackedregime positions in Deir ez-Zour city and launched a significant offensive against the al-Sha’er gas field in the Homs desert in central Syria on July 16. While the regime was ultimately able to recapturethe gas field, the ISIS attack served to test regime responses and to force a regime deployment of significant reinforcements to an area highly isolated from other critical fronts. This feint by ISIS was likely calculated to soften regime targets elsewhere in Syria. Three days after the regime launched an offensive to regain control of the gas field, ISIS began a highly successful campaign against regime bases throughout Northern Syria. These include the Regiment 121 Artillery base in Hasaka Province in addition to the Division 17 and Brigade 93 bases in ar-Raqqa Province, with indicators of an upcoming ISIS attack to seize the Tabqa Military Airbase. The ISIS seizure of three regime military bases in Northern Syria serves to set the stage for ISIS forces in Hasaka and ar-Raqqa to achieve territorial continuity across northern Syria after the elimination of internal threats to the borders of the Caliphate.

Ar-Raqqa

ISIS forces launched an attack to seize control of the Division 17 base just north of ar-Raqqa city on July 23. Two SVBIEDs were detonated at the entrance to the base, allowing ISIS fighters to advance into southern portions of the base. While there werereports that these VBIEDs detonated shy of their targets, the ISIS advance was nonetheless successful, and ISIS fighters immediately posted avideo from inside the military housing facility inside the base. After the initial advance, ISIS beheadedsix regime soldiers and displayed their severed heads near the al-Na’im roundabout within ar-Raqqa city. ISIS’s Wilayat ar-Raqqa account announced a curfew in ar-Raqqa on July 24, allegedly so that ISIS could hunt down regime forces who had escaped into the city. Regime forces immediately launched over 14 airstrikes against ar-Raqqa and Tabqa cities as helicopter gunships targeted ISIS positions, likely to provide cover for a large-scale regime withdrawal. Regime forces withdrew northward toward the al-Rayhat village, however ISIS ambushed a contingent of the withdrawing forces in the town of Abu Sharib, capturing andexecuting 50 regime soldiers on July 25. A total of 300 soldiers are reported to have successfully withdrawn to al-Rayhat, while additional hundredsrelocated to the Division 93 base in Ayn Isa, roughly 40 km south of Tel Abyad on the Turkish border. “Tens” of soldiers are also reported to have reachedthe Tabqa military airbase southwest of ar-Raqqa city. The regime also launched two scud missiles against ISIS positions in ar-Raqqa from the Brigade 155 base in Qalamoun, and SOHR reported that a regime convoy supported by both fixed and rotary wing aircraft was deployed from al-Salamia to ar-Raqqa on July 25.

ISIS fighters seized the entirety of ar-Raqqa’s 17th Division Base on July 25 following the full withdrawal of the regime forces that had remained to provide cover. ISIS social media accounts in ar-Raqqa posted dozens of pictures of seized equipment as well as pictures of fighters sleeping and praying inside the base. 105 regime fighters, including at least 19 officers, were reportedly killedduring the assault, while more than 140 soldiers are still missing. General Salim Hassoun and General Jihad Habib al-Qadda are rumored to be among those killed. Following a short period of consolidation in ar-Raqqa, ISIS forces launched an offensive to capture the Brigade 93 base north of ar-Raqqa city near the village of Ayn Issa. ISIS reportedly ordered the residents of villages surrounding the base to evacuate the area on July 29. A full ISIS offensive against the base wasdeclared by the ISIS Wilayat ar-Raqqa on August 5, immediately followed by the detonation of threeSVBIEDs against the base and a swift ISIS seizure of much of the base. SOHR reported that 15 ISIS fighters and 36 regime soldiers were killed, some of which were symbolically beheaded by ISIS after the attack. By August 8, ISIS forces gained full control of the base and regime forces were reported to have pulled back towart the Tabqa military airport in addition to villages west of the fallen Brigade 93 base. At the time of writing, ISIS forces appear to bemobilizing its forces and equipment to storm the Taqba base, the last regime stronghold in ar-Raqqa province.

Hasaka

In response to the initial ISIS escalation in Deir ez-Zour and the Homs Desert in mid-July, the Syrian regime increased its pressure against ISIS positions in Southern Hasaka Province, targeting areas controlled by ISIS south of Hasaka city, such as the al-Khair silos and the Karama village. Likely in retaliation for this increase in regime pressure on ISIS positions, two IEDs exploded in Hasaka City on July 22, one in a store near the al-Qahira Cinema and one targeting a store selling alcohol on al-Ahram street, killing a total of seven. These explosions were a notable departure from the city’s relative calm throughout the war and predicated a significant ISIS escalation against fortified regime infrastructure south of the city. Hours after launching a the offensive against the Division 17 military base north of ar-Raqqa City, ISIS fighters attacked the Regiment 121 artillery base in Malabiah south of Hasaka City. In response, the regime immediately closed all roads leading into the city, instituted a curfew, and conducted air raids around the base. However, regime forces were unable to repel the attacking ISIS forces, which received reinforcements on July 24.

Simultaneous attacks against other regime installations in the province neutralized the regime’s ability to reinforce the base and prevented an immediate counterattack against the ISIS rear. While also attacking the “Kawkab” military base east of the city, ISIS deployed three SVESTS against amilitary operations center within the city, reportedly by disguising the suicide bombers in NDF uniforms. A leading member of the Ba’ath party named Hanna Atalla was reportedly killed in the attack. Effectively severing the regime resupply line from Qamishli ISIS forces seized the town of Safiya, located 10 km north of Hasaka City at a critical juncture in the two Qamishli-Hasaka highways. Farther north, a number of explosions occurred in Qamishli city: first, a large explosion targeted the local headquarters of military intelligence on al-Wahda Street. Syrian state news outlet SANA also reported the detonation of second explosive device planted in the city’s southern al-Tay neighborhood, and ISIS reportedly targeted a bus transporting regime forces with a stun grenade.

Finally, as fighting in the Regiment 121 base continued, an ISIS SVBIED detonated at the Panorama checkpoint at the southern entrance to Hasaka city on July 26 amidst clashes in the area between ISIS and YPG fighters. The SVBIED is likely to have hindered the regime’s ability to reinforce the Regiment 121 base, and the ISIS Wilayat Baraka (Hasaka) twitter account subsequently claimed to have successfully halted a regime military convoy at the checkpoint. After three days of clashes, ISIS seized full control of the base on July 27. A prominent NDF commander named Abdul-Samad al-Nazzal was reportedlykilled during the fighting in addition to GeneralMiziad Salameh, the commander of Regiment 121. Following the full seizure of the base, ISIS releasedpictures purporting to document a large quantity of heavy weaponry seized from within the base, including at least four howitzers. ISIS social media accounts also released a video tour of the base and the captured military equipment.

While rumors initially emerged that regime forces withdrew from the city itself in order to reinforce key remaining military bases elsewhere in the province, it appears the regime instead consolidated control of its own critical  infrastructure within the city, such as water pumping stations and jails, with the help of security forces and the NDF, while possibly transferring further control of certain neighborhoods to Kurdish forces. An official PYD account reassured civilians that Kurdish forces maintained full control over the administration of Kurdish areas of the city, and the YPG conducted amilitary parade in the Salhiya neighborhood in a show of strength on July 31. While fighting in the city’s southern countryside initially continued, regime forces claim to have consolidated control of the southern outskirts of the city amidst a reported ISIS withdrawal into its own territory deeper south of the city. Clashes between regime forces and ISIS in the village of Sabe Sekor southeast of the city on July 31 indicate that the ISIS forces that attacked the Kawkab military base likely withdrew southeast toward the Iraqi border. A primary transit route for ISIS fighters between Iraq and Syria, this zone is likely a staging area for ISIS forces operating in the Jazeera desert, and could have been the area from which ISIS forces mobilized in the August 3 attack on Sinar.

In addition, some ISIS forces withdrew west of the city, forcing a civilian relocation from the western al-Neshwa area of the city due to heavy ISIS bombardment to cover its retreating forces. Furtherclashes erupted on August 5 between gunmen and YPG fighters near al-Bairuti Bridge at the northern entrance to the southern Gweran neighborhood of Hasaka city after a military convoy of YPG fighters attempted to enter the neighborhood  and make arrests. It is possible this altercation was the result of the distribution of an August 4 ISIS statementthat called for residents in Syria’s northeast region to halt their support for the YPG and foreshadowed an impending ISIS assault upon Hasaka city.Reports have emerged that the regime is considering relocating the official administration of Hasaka province to the city of Qamishli amidst fears of a full ISIS offensive against the city, and negotiationsare reportedly ongoing over the formation of a joint Governing Council for the city that could facilitate a regime drawdown.

The ISIS main effort against the Regiment 121 Artillery Base is likely to have deployed from the ISIS stronghold of al-Shadadi in southern Hasaka Province, however the supporting efforts in the cities of Hasaka and Qamishli were likely staged from elsewhere within the province, possibly the ISIS stronghold in Tel Hamis. Pro-ISIS activists posted on Twitter that the combined offensives in ar-Raqqa and Hasaka involved a total of 1,400 fighters: 600 in ar-Raqqa and 800 in Hasaka, although this is impossible to verify. An ISIS mobilization near Ras al-Ayn was reported by SOHR on July 17, and it is possible that these forces were integrated into the offensive against Hasaka City. The requirements for consolidating control in Deir ez-Zour in addition to the simultaneous escalation in ar-Raqqa province makes it unlikely that the ISIS force in Hasaka drew manpower from elsewhere within Syria. It is equally unlikely that ISIS forces were reallocated from Iraq, due to the requirements to mount the significant escalation against the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga on August 3. Therefore, it is assessed that ISIS did not relieve other positions within either theatre in order to conduct this operation.

The seizure of these three regime bases removed obstacles for ISIS freedom of movement within the areas of operation south of Hasaka city and north of ar-Raqqa city. ISIS will likely attempt to seize the city of Hasaka itself in order to successfully link these two systems, as the major highways that allow for transit northwest into ar-Raqqa province pass through the city’s outskirts.  While ISIS will likely continue to pressure regime and YPG supply lines through Qamishli, an attack against the city itself is unlikely in the near term. The city’s distance from current ISIS lines of communication makes it an less likely objective, and its importance to both the YPG and the regime will ensure stiff resistance and provide a strong deterrence against an ISIS attack.

Sinjar

While shifting to a consolidation phase in Hasaka, ISIS forces in Iraq’s Ninewa province attacked the isolated Kurdish stronghold of Sinjar on August 3, successfully forcing a tactical retreat by Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga forces. The assault appears to have been conducted by the ISIS Wilayat Ninewa force, likely the same force that seized the city of Mosul on June 10. However, testament to the cross-border nature of the full ISIS force in this area, ISIS’s Syrian Wilayat al-Baraka (Hasaka) claimed to have sent fighters to participate in a subsequent attack against the village of Khan Suwwar north of the Sinjar mountains. The seizure of Sinjar represents a linked effort to neutralize threats to the ISIS interior, successfully removing a key obstacle to the territorial integrity linking its Hasaka and Ninewa Wilayats. If ISIS continues to expand in northern Iraq, ISIS forces may turn northward to the oil fields in Syria’s Hasaka province after securing and hardening the current borders of its Caliphate. The fields remain under YPG control, and are likely to be heavily defended by both YPG and local tribal elements. ISIS forces to date have largely refrained from mounting a meaningful challenge to this control, as the fields present a hardened target with less immediate implications for the consolidation of the Caliphate. However, a two-front offensive against Hasaka’s northeast launched from the ISIS stronghold of Tel Hamis in Hasaka and ISIS positions within Ninewa province may have sufficient momentum to meaningfully challenge the YPG for control of the oil infrastructure. As such, a campaign into northeastern Hasaka is a possible future course of action if ISIS is able to secure and harden the current borders of its Caliphate.

Following the fall of Sinjar, Syrian Kurdish YPG forces moved in to control the Iraqi side of the Yarubiya border crossing and to counter an ISIS advance against the nearby Iraqi town of Rabia. According to a statement released by the YPG General Command, 700 Peshmerga fighters initiallyretreated into Syrian territory following the ISIS assault on Sinjar, where some are reported to have received medical treatment by Kurdish doctors. In the statement the YPG also committed to cooperating at the “highest levels” with the Peshmerga in order to counter the ISIS assault. In addition, YPG forces have opened routes into Kurdish territory in Hasaka Province for refugeesfleeing from Sinjar. Co-chairman of the PYD Salih Muslim confirmed YPG involvement in Iraq, statingduring a telephone interview that the forced withdrawal of the Peshmerga from Sinjar prompted the YPG to cross the border “to support and assist” the Peshmerga forces. He also stated that YPG forces crossed the border from several locations, likely in the effort to manage the flow of refugees. On August 4, a redeployment of Peshmerga forces to the border allowed the combined Kurdish forces to successfully regain control of the border crossing after clashes with ISIS. In addition, YPG and Peshmerga forces continue to contest ISIS positions on the nearby outskirts of Rabia. According to the head of the YPG’s information center, YPG forces have conducted five successful operations against ISIS forces in Ninewa province and participated in attacks by the Peshmerga against ISIS forces in Zumar and Kaskie in addition to Rabia.

The YPG defense of Iraqi Kurds and Yezidis against ISIS is the first case of YPG deployment outside of Syrian territory. The Syrian PYD had previouslyattempted and failed to reach an agreement with the Iraqi Kurdish National Council (KNC) to create joint de-facto administrations in northern Syria that could have provided for military cooperation between the two bodies. Without the support of the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq Mahmoud Barzani, the PYD was forced to negotiate local settlements with Christian and Arab groups in order to secure its territory. This balancing within northern Syria is unlikely to change in the wake of the fall of Sinjar and the deployment of the YPG into Iraqi territory. While local support to the Peshmerga near the Syrian-Iraqi border to deter further ISIS advances in this zone is in the interest of the YPG, Syria will undoubtedly remain its primary focus.

Further, sources of local support to the YPG within Syria will prove increasingly crucial if ISIS continues to advance within Hasaka province. Testament to the importance of local relationships for continued YPG control in the province, in late July the PYD appointed Humaydi Dahmam al-Assi al Jarba, a member of the Shammar tribe and a cousin of former Syrian Coalition chief Ahmad Jarba, as co-governor of Hasaka Province. The Shammar tribe has historically facilitated YPG operations against ISIS, and was instrumental in the YPG’s ability to reinforce the Yarubiya border crossing and to secure YPG control of Hasaka’s oil fields after the fall of Mosul. The deepening of these ties is an indicator of the continued importance of local Syrian alliances within the Kurdish war effort against ISIS. As ISIS continues to push forward with its campaign in Northern Iraq and Syria, the continued ability of the YPG and the Peshmerga to continue mount successful resistance will be a limiting factor in the ISIS advance.

Conclusion:

Through a significant escalation against the Syrian regime and the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga beginning in mid-July, ISIS forces have made large advances in a campaign to consolidate internal control within the Caliphate. The Syrian regime’s Regiment 121, Division 17, and Brigade 93 military bases have fallen to ISIS, and indicators have emerged of an upcoming ISIS attack against the Tabqa military airbase southwest of ar-Raqqa City. ISIS has also seized the Peshmerga stronghold at Sinjar in the west of Iraq’s Ninewa Province, successfully consolidating its internal line of control across the Jazeera desert into Syria. The breath of these linked offensives across Iraq and Syria illustrate the ISIS priority objective of establishing territorial integrity for the Caliphate, and are evidence of the large military capacity ISIS still possesses nearly two months after the fall of Mosul.

In order to achieve its goal of establishing a functional, viable state ISIS must continue to leverage its military capabilities to consolidate its interior lines across Iraq and Syria and form a set of identifiable and defensible borders. Eliminating interior vulnerabilities is a key component of this effort and is likely to remain a primary objective for the ISIS military campaign in ensuing weeks. The victories in ar-Raqqa, Hasaka, and Ninewa suggests that ISIS operational objectives prioritize setting the stage for the consolidation of control over logistical lines of communication from the Iraqi border and the current operational zone in southern Hasaka to strongholds in ar-Raqqa province in order to secure freedom of movement between currently separate systems. As continued military successes from increasingly unified theatres of operation fuel the ISIS war machine, a hardened ISIS exterior line is likely to allow ISIS forces to pursue further expansion.

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[1] An initial Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) and Ahrar al-Sham (HASI) footprint in villages near the Syrian-Iraqi border challenged the YPG within the Hasaka countryside, but was largely replaced in early 2014 by an ISIS threat as the JN-ISIS schism took hold and prompted a JN and HASI withdrawal to the west.

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Reposted from Institute for the study of war - Syria. 

Iraq Security Weekly Roundup

 Islamist militants led by the IS continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region but with the increased assistance being provided by the US military the militants are likely to lose territory in the short term in areas between Mosul and Erbil.

Otherwise fighting remains concentrated in areas with large Sunni populations, particularly the northern and central provinces.

Significant flashpoints include a large stretch of Ninawa province, areas south and west of Kirkuk, all of urban Anbar province (and numerous rural areas in the west of the province around the Syrian border), the Jurf as-Sakhr area of Babil province and many parts of Diyala and Salah ad-Din provinces. Baghdad also continues to see sporadic violence.

The southern region remains mostly quiet. The Kurdish administered north, while understandably rattled by IS activities around its peripheries, saw no major incidents of violence last week, although a significant influx of refugees will continue to put pressure on the authorities.

Last week a total of 39 non-suicide bomb attacks left 14 people dead and 77 injured countrywide. There were no additional suicide bombings reported which is statistically unusual.

Such a lull has occurred over recent years, normally either ahead of a significant co-ordinated terrorist attack involving a number of suicide bombers, or at a time when counter-insurgency operations intensify. The latter has occurred over recent days which may be the reason for the brief interruption in suicide attacks. Nonetheless, further suicide bombings, including co-ordinated potentially mass-casualty attacks, should be anticipated.

Small arms attacks left 11 people dead and four injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants. However, the true number of dead in the military operations is extremely difficult to ascertain.

At least 14 bodies were recovered abandoned in different parts of the central region (including in Baghdad).

Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 23 people dead and 32 injured according to open sources, but some of the figures come from areas under militant control. The true casualty figures in these areas are only likely to be verified following a cessation of hostilities and with the conducting of an intense social survey on the ground, but such a development is likely a long way away.

Please note: 

*It is very difficult to ascertain the number of violent incidents and casualties in areas contested by Islamic State (IS) militants and the true figure is likely to be significantly higher.

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Source: AKE GROUP

موجز الاحداث الامنية الاسبوعي للعراق

اجمالي الهجمات الغير انتحارية 45 قتيلا و 125 جريحا الاسبوع الماضي. بينما خلفت التفجيرات الانتحارية ما لا يقل عن 55 قتيلا و 104 جريح.

كما خلفت الهجمات بالاسلحة الخفيفة و المتوسطة تسعة قتلى و جرح واحد على الاقل, بما في ذلك خسائر القوات المسلحة العراقية خلال اشتباكاتها مع المسلحين.

اما حوادث اطلاق النار غير المباشرة (الصواريخ و قذائف الهاون و القصف المدفعي العسكري) فقد تركت 15 قتيلا و ما لا يقل عن 24 جريحا بالاظافة الى خطف سبعة اشخاص في حوادث منفصلة في وسط و شمال البلاد في حين عثرت السلطات الحكومية على ثلاثة جثث مجهولة في كل من بغداد و البصرة. كما سيطرت الدولة الاسلامية على عدد من البلدات الصغيرة في جميع انحاء الموصل الاسبوع الماضي, مما يزيد من في توسيع نطاق نفوذها في مناطق قريبة بشكل غير مريح الى حكومة اقليم كوردستان (الاراضي القريبة من الحكومة الكردية الاقليمية) كما اجبر العديد من المدنيين من الخلفيات العرقية والدينية على الفرار من مناطقهم مثل القرى ذات الاغلبية الايزيدية في فضاء سنجار و مدينة قرقوش ذات الاغلبية المسيحية.

 وتشير التقارير التي يصعب التحقق منها الى ان الفظائع واسعة النطاق ترتكب في المناطق الخاضعة لسيظرة الدولة الاسلامية وتحديدا ضد المدنيين اليزيديين و المسيحيين على حد سواء. ردا على التصعيد فقد وافقت الولايات المتحدة الامريكية على شن غارات جوية ضد اهداف لمتشددي الدولة الاسلامية.

 وبدأت الغارات الجوية في 8 آب مستهدفة معاقل مسلحي الدولة الاسلامية حول محافظة نينوى صعودا الى المناطق المحاذية لمحافظة اربيل الكردية, كما تشمل عمليات الاغاثة الجوية لمساعدة المدنيين الفارين من مناطق النزاع المسلح. ومع ذلك, استمر القتال بين المقاتلين المسلحين و قوات الامن العراقية في مناطق عديدة تركزت في المنطقة الوسطى و الشمالية ومن المرجح ان تستمر الاشتباكات في المستقبل القريب.. وعلى الرغم من الضربات الامريكية المستمرة ايضا. وسيكون من الصعب جدا استعادة المدن و المناطق الحضرية الكبرى التي تسيطر عليها حاليا من قبل مقاتلي الدولة الاسلامية مثل الموصل.

نسخة معربة من النسخة الاصلية باللغة الانجليزية

Iraq Political Report

Politically the situation is changing rapidly at the time of writing, with the Da'wah party nominating Haidar al-Amadi as its candidate for prime minister while supporters of Nuri al-Maliki are contesting the appointment. The government-formation process is likely to remain fractious and difficult.

On 7 August AKE also raised the security risk rating for Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) territory following the expansion of IS activities on the borders of the semi-autonomous region.

The Iraq countrywide security risk rating was recently affirmed at 45 (Highly Dangerous Business Environment). KRG territory is now rated at 20 (Elevated Risk) up from 19. As a comparison, the United Kingdom is rated at 7 (Stable) and Iraq's neighbour Syria is rated at 56 (Extreme Security Risks).

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Source: AKE GROUP

Iraq Security Weekly Roundup

In total at least 26 non-suicide #bomb #attacks left 45 people dead and 125 injured last week in #Iraq. Four additional #suicide bombings left at least 55 people dead and 104 injured.

Small arms attacks left nine people dead and one injured, including members of the #security #forces shot during clashes with #militants. Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 15 people dead and 24 injured.

Seven people were #kidnapped in separate incidents in the centre and north of the country while the authorities recovered three bodies abandoned in #Baghdad and #Basrah.

#Islamic State (IS) militants seized a number of small towns around #Mosul last week, expanding their sphere of influence into areas uncomfortably close to Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) territory. 

The advance also forced numerous civilians from ethnic and religious backgrounds to flee areas such as the predominantly #Yazidi villages of Sinjar district and the predominantly #Christian town of #Qaraqosh. Reports, which are difficult to verify, are also indicating that extensive atrocities are being committed in areas under IS control, specifically against Yazidi and Christian civilians.

In response to the escalation the US approved targeted air strikes against IS militant targets. Bombings began on 8 August around Ninawa province and areas on routes approaching the Kurdish city of Erbil. Humanitarian air drops also took place around Mount Sinjar to help fleeing civilians gathered in the area to escape the militants.

Nonetheless, fighting continued between IS and affiliated fighters and the Iraqi security forces in numerous parts of the central and northern region. Clashes are also likely to continue for the foreseeable future, despite the US air strikes. It will be very difficult to retake major urban areas currently controlled by IS fighters, such as Mosul.

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Source: AKE GROUP

Iraq weekly security weekly report

Last week a total of 24 bomb attacks left 27 people dead and 79 injured. Small arms attacks left 31 people dead and nine injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants. Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 34 people dead and 74 injured.

Islamist militants led by the Islamic State (IS) continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region. They managed to gain several new towns over the weekend to the north and west of the city of Mosul.

Elsewhere violence remains particularly concentrated in urban parts of Anbar, Salah ad-Din, western Diyala, south-western Ta'mim and northern Babil provinces. Terrorist attacks also continue to take place throughout Baghdad.

Air strikes also continue to target militant positions in sparsely populated areas in the west of Anbar and Ninawa provinces near the border with Syria.

Last week saw a handful of attacks in the south of the country. The region remains comparatively much quieter than the central and northern provinces. To reflect this AKE created a new separate security risk rating for the region last week.

The new internal region is rated at AKE30 (Grave Security Concerns) and encompasses the provinces of Basrah, Maysan, Muthanna, Dhi Qar and Qadissiyah. The predominantly Shi'ah region contains the "super giant” oilfields of Rumaila, West Qurna, Majnoon and Halfaya which are arguably the most strategic assets in the country.

AKE maintains a unique 1-100 security risk rating system which expresses how hazardous a country or sub-national region is from a security perspective. A rating of 1 denotes that conditions are safe and stable, whereas a rating of 100 denotes widespread and terminal threat to life.  The ratings are updated in real-time by the AKE intelligence department. Unlike many existing risk rating scales, it does not state that a country is too dangerous to work in. Instead, it expresses in detail how hazardous an operating environment is, allowing a traveller or organisation to judge themselves whether or not they want to do business there.

The Iraq countrywide security risk rating was recently affirmed at 45 (Highly Dangerous Business Environment). KRG territory is rated at 19 (Elevated Risk). As a comparison, the United Kingdom is rated at 7 (Stable) and Iraq's neighbour Syria is rated at 56 (Extreme Security Risks).

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Source: AKE

Iraq Security Weekly roundup

  Islamist militants led by the Islamic State (IS) continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region.

Violence remains particularly concentrated in urban parts of Anbar, Salah ad-Din, Ninawa, western Diyala, south-western Ta'mim and northern Babil provinces. Terrorist attacks also continue to take place throughout Baghdad.

Air strikes continue to target militant positions in sparsely populated areas in the west of Anbar and Ninawa provinces near the border with Syria.

Last week saw a handful of attacks in the south of the country, including what appears to have been sectarian killings at a Sunni mosque in Basrah, as well as two small bombings in the city of Najaf, a major centre for the Shi'ah community. IS militants continue to try and provoke a backlash from the Shi'ah community by attacking religious interests.

A total of 34 non-suicide bomb attacks left 30 people dead and 111 injured countrywide. As Ramadan drew to a close three additional suicide bombings left 101 people dead and 53 injured.

Small arms attacks left eight people dead and eight injured, although it is likely that many more members of the security forces were shot during clashes with militants. The reporting climate is very poor amid the violence which makes it difficult to cross reference and verify all reports.

Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 46 people dead and 67 injured.

At least eight people were reportedly abducted. Some are likely to be murdered rather than held for a ransom. At least 41 bodies were also recovered by the authorities in different parts of the central region.

As the fighting rages on, the heavily divided parliament managed to appoint a new president. The Kurd Fouad Massoum faces a very difficult challenge in trying to help form a unity government in Baghdad. With Nuri al-Maliki intent on retaining his position as prime minister, with numerous Sunni and Kurdish politicians staunchly opposed to his candidacy, the government-formation process will remain very slow, which will hinder any efforts at resolving the current violence in the country.

Amid the protracted fighting AKE affirmed the security risk rating for Iraq last week at 45 (Highly Dangerous Business Environment). AKE also affirmed the security risk rating for KRG territory at 19 (Elevated Risk). 

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Source: AKE GROUP.

Iraq remains in Crisis, New Security Weekly Roundup

 Islamist militants led by the Islamic State (IS) continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region.

A total of 48 non-suicide bomb attacks left 53 people dead and 220 injured last week - an increase from recent weeks.

Three additional suicide bombings left seven people dead and 15 injured.

Small arms attacks left 14 people dead and 118 injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants.

Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 46 people dead and 142 injured.

The bodies of at least 26 people were also recovered abandoned in various parts of the central region.

Last week's summary:

• Total number of violent incidents: 625 (slight rise from previous week)
• Total fatalities (not including militants): 146 (decrease from previous week)
• Total injured (not including militants): 495
• Average weekly number of violent incidents: 57 (2012) and 98 (2013)
• Average weekly fatalities: 60 (2012) and 140 (2013)

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Source: AKE GROUP.

Iraq Security Weekly Roundup

Islamist militants led by the Islamic State (IS) continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region.

The Iraqi government warned the UN that the militants had seized a chemical weapons facility north-west of Baghdad as well as nuclear material in Mosul, although various commentators reported that the militants would be unable to weaponise the material to any major extent and that it did not pose a major concern – at least not in comparison to the overall capabilities and threat posed by the IS in its existing form.

Amid the ongoing crisis the Iraqi parliament convened on 13 July but failed to appoint key members of government and subsequently adjourned within minutes of meeting. The next session will take place on 15 July.

The scope for cross-party agreement will remain low, with sharply deteriorating relations between Nuri al-Maliki and his allies and the Kurdish regional authorities in the north. Last week Nuri al-Maliki accused Erbil of harbouring terrorists while the Kurdish authorities seized control of two major oilfields near Kirkuk. While they aim to protect the assets the move is nonetheless provocative and will harm relations with the federal authorities.

With political relations so frayed the authorities will continue to seek a military solution to the insurgency in the central and northern provinces but without extensive negotiations, inclusion of key community figures and meaningful efforts to form an inclusive government the military solution will not pacify or stabilise the country.

As the fighting continues concerns have been raised over the stability of routes connecting Baghdad with the south of the country via Babil province. Roads around Jurf as-Sakhr are likely to be a significant battleground, the outcome of which will affect various aspects of life in the capital – including any evacuation plans which organisations in the city currently have in place.

Last week a total of 36 non-suicide bomb attacks left 12 people dead and 41 injured. Three additional suicide bombings left 36 people dead and 38 injured.

Small arms attacks left 38 people dead and 44 injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants. Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 33 people dead and 87 injured.

At least 66 people were reportedly murdered, with their bodies found abandoned. Thirteen people were also reportedly abducted in the centre of the country.

Source:AKE