Iraq Security Weekly Roundup week #29

There was a fall in the number of attacks reported in Iraq last week. At least 130 people were killed and 402 injured in nationwide incidents.

However, while this is a reduction from the previous week, overall levels of violence remain very high in the country. Last week's fatality figure is well above average.

Violence was concentrated around Mosul, Kirkuk and the wider area surrounding Baghdad (especially in Fallujah, Ba'qubah and Muqdadiyah districts).

There were additional incidents reported around Basrah in the south, while clusters were also reported around Tuz Khurmatu and Shirqat in the north.

A total of 57 non-suicide bomb attacks left 58 people dead and 205 injured, a high figure for the country.

At least 10 additional suicide bombings left 29 more people dead and 155 injured. This is also a very high number, possibly linked to the belief amongst some radical Islamists that the holy month of Ramadan is ideally suited to martyrdom.

Small arms attacks left 30 people dead and 18 injured. A rise in indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) also left eight people dead and 24 injured.

On 21 July militants also conducted two complex attacks against prisons in Abu Ghraib and Taji, both in the outskirts of Baghdad, in an attempt to free prisoners held at the institutions. Reports differ as to the number of inmates released during the deadly attacks but several suspected members of al-Qaeda-affiliated organisations could be among the escapees.


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Source: AKE Group

Iraq Security Weekly Roundup, week #12

Levels of violence rose considerably in Iraq last week, making it the second-worst week for violence so far this year.

At least 125 people were killed and 302 injured in nationwide incidents, the worst casualty figures since a spate of co-ordinated terrorist attacks in September.

At least 49 non-suicide bomb attacks left 82 people dead and 253 injured – a very high figure for the country.

Three additional suicide bombings left 11 people dead and 33 injured. There has been a rise in suicide attacks over recent weeks although most appear to have inflicted a relatively small number of casualties.

Small arms attacks left 32 people dead and 14 injured, a relatively high figure. Many took place in the capital where militants appear to have resumed targeted assassinations against civic employees and senior members of the security forces. Officials associated with the April provincial elections have also been singled out countrywide.

Otherwise, indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) left three people injured. Two people were also found stabbed to death in Anbar and Wassit provinces.

Violence was concentrated in Baghdad, which experienced more attacks than any other week since the end of 2011. Mosul was also violent, but more customarily so. Otherwise incidents were concentrated in the central region, predominantly in districts adjacent to the capital.

World Risk Updates

Bahrain

Security forces dispersed several hundred Shia demonstrators near the capital Manama on 18 December. The demonstrators gathered near a roundabout on the Budaiya highway for the fourth day in a row, until police stormed the area forcing them out. Tensions continue to simmer in Bahrain and are unlikely to dissipate until the opposition feel that they are being listened to by the government.

Côte d’Ivoire

Following a local dispute, at least six people were killed by the government's new army, the Republican Forces of Côte d’Ivoire, after armed youths raided military barracks on 17 December in Vavoua in the west. The undisciplined and fragile nature of the country's armed forces - comprised of former warring factions - has sparked regular clashes since the end of post-election hostilties. Rebuilding the security apparatus is President Ouattara's biggest challenge.

DRC

After the Supreme Court confirmed Kabila's re-election, opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi called for the DRC armed forces to stop obeying Kabila. Kabila is due to be sworn in on 20 December, but Tshisekedi has declared himself president. Tshisekedi has departed from conciliatory calls for peaceful protest and is stepping on dangerous ground, risking a full-scale return to widespread violence.

Egypt

Security forces wielding batons and firing teargas clashed on 19 December with rock-throwing demonstrators who continue to call for an end to military rule. At least one person was killed in the latest clashes, bringing the total number of casualties in the recent spate of violence to 11. The demonstrations have been largely confined to the Midan Tahrir area of the city; however, there is potential for clashes to spill-over into adjoining streets in the downtown area.

Kazakhstan

15 people were reportedly killed following riots in the western region of Mangistau. The unrest was sparked on 16 December by striking oil workers in the town of Zhanaozen during independence celebrations; the violence subsequently spread to Shetpe and the regional capital, Aktau. Security personnel are likely to take an increasingly heavy-handed approach to quelling any further possible outbreaks of unrest.

North Korea

Kim Jong Il's abrupt death leaves his son Jong Un as his designated heir, although attention is likely to focus on his brother-in-law Jang Song Taek, who is expected to act as caretaker while Kim Jong Un consolidates control. South Korea’s military, supported by 28,500 US troops, is currently on high alert as developments are monitored. The current expectation is for a continuation of the status quo, where Pyongyang will continue to use its nuclear programme to leverage foreign aid where the potential for increased foreign policy tensions and the possibility of small scale military attacks on South Korea continues. It is likely the DPRK’s foreign policy will remain erratic.

US

President Obama has signed in a spending bill which will avoid forcing the closedown of certain government agencies such as defence and labour, as previously agreed. The move prevents tax rises for most workers but protects the emergency welfare benefits currently received by millions of Americans. Although the legislative battles on Capitol Hill are expected to continue, this bill provides for government financing through to September 2012, which will come as a relief to Obama as he heads into the elections.

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Source: AKE

Iraq Weekly Roundup, 19 December 2011

Summary

Levels of violence fell in Iraq over the past week, with at least 33 people killed and 84 injured. Attacks were concentrated in Mosul, Baghdad and Kirkuk, with a scattering of incidents through the central provinces and a notable bombing attack on oil and gas infrastructure in Basrah province.

Tactics

At least 26 bomb attacks left 15 people dead and 77 injured, a decline from the previous week, while a consistent number of small arms fire attacks left 15 people dead and seven injured. There was only one indirect fire (rocket or mortar) attack reported but it caused no casualties or damage. There were no suicide attacks recorded over the course of the week, and the country should now be considered statistically overdue.

Abductions

Three people were kidnapped in separate incidents, including a mayor in Babil province who was later found shot dead. Three ministry employees abducted last week were also found shot dead in Salah ad-Din province. A rare abduction was also recorded in Kurdistan, although the victim was freed very quickly by a security force operation.

The Withdrawal

Meanwhile AKE issued a risk advisory for Iraq on Global Intake following the withdrawal of US forces from the country which concluded on 17 December. Counter-insurgency operations on the ground will no longer take place while training of the Iraqi security forces has also been significantly scaled back. The country now faces a security gap, which various threat groups, both domestic and external may attempt to capitalise on. Violence may therefore rise over the course of 2012, not least as the political environment appears to growing more competitive and 

confrontational

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Source: AKE

How Iraq’s Religious Parties Attempted To Seize Power In The Post-Invasion Vacuum

In April 2003, the government of Saddam Hussein fell. With it went the bureaucracy and the security forces. Into this vacuum stepped local Shiite clerics and exile political parties, all attempting to take advantage of the chaos to seize power. The Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) in coordination with Iran moved in thousands of its militiamen. Moqtada al-Sadr’s followers tried to take over in major cities, and killed one of his main rivals. The SIIC and Sadrists were not only able to take control of some areas of the country during this period, but set the stage for them to become the new leaders of Iraq.
The Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) was one of the largest and most well organized parties to step into the void created by the overthrow of Saddam. As early as November 2001, the SIIC’s militia, the Badr Brigade met with friendly tribes, to begin planning for post-Saddam Iraq. Badr told the sheikhs to take over government offices after the impending U.S. invasion. This was coordinated with the Iranians, which the SIIC had close ties to. The Supreme Council’s founders Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim and Sayid Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who came from one of Iraq’s leading religious families, fled to Iran during the Iran-Iraq War where they created the party. They pledged allegiance to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard created the Badr Brigade to help in its war with Baghdad. The Supreme Council would later forge ties with the Americans, participating in various opposition meetings before the March 2003 invasion. The U.S. ended up picking the SIIC as being the main Shiite party it would work with, despite its ties to Iran. This was partly due to its connections with other leading opposition parties like the Kurds and the Iraqi National Congress, all of which the SIIC had worked with for years. In the new Iraq, the Hakims were hoping to play upon their name, opposition to Saddam, support from Tehran, and organization to take advantage of the U.S. invasion. This gave it an early lead to become one of the new powers in the country.

Immediately after the March 2003 invasion, the SIIC sent in thousands of its Badr Brigade fighters into Iraq. They positioned some in Kurdistan before the attack, while others moved in from Iran. The United States was aware of these moves, and warned Badr that it would be attacked if it were encountered during the invasion. In April 2003, the U.S. deployed peshmerga and Special Forces into Diyala province to try to block Badr from entering from Iran there. Neither of these actions deterred the Supreme Council however. The Badr Brigade was able to seize key cities in Diyala, and ended up fighting Baathists, Sunni tribes, and the Iranian-opposition party Mujahedeen e-Khalq in the province. This forced the United States to try to disarm the Badr, which only partially worked. The SIIC also moved to seize power in southern Iraqi cities like Basra, Najaf, and Karbala. In Kut, the capital of Wasit for example, SIIC cleric Sayid Abbas Fadhil claimed control of the city, and took over the city hall before U.S. forces arrived. The Badr Brigade also began assassinating Baathists. While being nominally aligned with the United States, the Supreme Council proved to have its own agenda. The SIIC had been waiting for twenty years for the fall of Saddam, and were not going to pass up the opportunity to assert itself across Iraq. They moved into Shiite areas of northern and southern Iraq, went after their opponents like former regime members, and set themselves up as the new government in parts of the country.

Moqtada al-Sadr was also active during this period. First, Ayatollah Kadhem al-Hussein al-Haeri, a leading cleric based in Qom, Iran, appointed Sadr his representative in Iraq on April 7, 2003. The next day, al-Haeri issued a Fatwa calling on Shiites to seize power, and to oppose the United States. At the same time, Sadrists began asserting their control over Sadr City in Baghdad and southern Iraq, setting up offices, banning alcohol, and making women wear veils. On April 10, Sadr’s followers assassinated one of Moqtada’s main rivals, Sayid Abdul Majid al-Khoei in the Imam Ali shrine in Najaf, and surrounded the house of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most senior cleric in Iraq, threatening him as well. Like the Supreme Council, the Sadrists tried to take over local administration in several of the country’s cities. Sadr’s followers also began working at the grass roots level with their offices that distributed social services to build up its support. Sadr went on to directly challenge his rivals by assassinating Sayid Khoei and threatening Ayatollah Sistani. Those events set the trend for the Sadrists as they would become the main movement of the Shiite poor, as well as one of the more violent militias.

Both the Hakims and Sadr were able to translate their early moves after the U.S. invasion into political power in post-Saddam Iraq. In 2003, Sayid Abdul Aziz Hakim became a member of the Iraqi Governing Council put together by the Coalition Provisional Authority. The Sadrists led two revolts in 2004, and became the major Shiite opposition group to the Americans. In 2005, the two parties decided to work together in the United Iraqi Alliance, which ended up winning the most seats in parliament in the two elections held that year. They then took over local administrations, provincial councils, governorships, and police forces in southern Iraq as a result. They then turned on Sunnis in response to the constant sectarian attacks by groups like Al Qaeda in Iraq, as well as fighting each other for dominance of southern Iraq. The United States was caught flatfooted to deal with any of this. They did not expect the government to totally collapse in the wake of the invasion, and did nothing during the chaotic weeks that followed when the war was officially over. That space allowed groups like the Supreme Council and Sadrists to rise to prominence. The SIIC turned out to be the party, the United States decided to work with, because it was willing to cooperate with them, while the Sadrists were considered a threat, because they constantly called for the Americans to leave the country, and were willing to use force to achieve that. Today, both parties remain members of the government, which is in part, the result of their aggressive moves to seize power in the wake of the U.S. invasion.
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Source: AK News

حقيقة الميناء الكويتي الجديد !!!

قبل مدّة التقيت بعميد بالبحرية العراقية جان ضمن وفد التفاوض مع الكويتيين, كتله يا استاذ شنو القصّة مالت الميناء الكويتي !!؟؟
كَال هذا الميناء عبارة عن مؤامرة على العراق من الداخل !! لأن قبل مدّة اكو شكم سياسي حرامي وقّع عقد مد سكة حديدية بين الكويت و العراق و تمت المصادقة على هذا المشروع, بعدها بمدّة طرحو الكويتيين مشروع الميناء الجديد . فكرة هذا المشروع تجي سفن الشحن لهذا الميناء محملة بضائع تنزلها بالميناء و من الميناء راح يتم نقلها للعراق عن طريق سكّة الحديد الي راح يتم انشائها بين العراق و الكويت و اكو مشروع اخر لأنشاء مخزن كبير جدا بمدينة الكوت لخزن هذي البضائع,, يعني الشغلة بيها خيانه للبلد !! و اكو شكم واحد انتخبناهم و صعّدناهم بأصواتنا .. راحو باعوا البلد بشكم مليون دولار !!!! يعني الشغلة اساساً اذا نلغي مشروع سكة الحديد بين الكويت و العراق مراح ينجح هذا الميناء لأن هو عبارة عن محطة للتفريغ لا اكثر و لا اقل و بعدين هو مراح يصير بيه مخزن لخزن البضائع لأن حجمه صغير, و اذا فعلا تم انشاء الميناء راح تنسد قناة خور عبد الله من قبل الكويتيين و مراح تدخل سفن الشحن للعراق !!! لأن الجزء الاكبر من القناة تابع للكويت بحسب اخر ترسيم حدود بين العراق و الكويت لأن صدّام الله يلعنه كلما يدزوله الامم المتحدة حتى يدز لجنة اشراف لترسيم الحدود يرفض !!! الى ان صار اعلى مد بالبحر طلعوا الامم المتحدة وي الكويتيين ورسموا الحدود المشتركة و مثل منعرف اعلى مد للبحر يعني اعلى ارتفاع لسطح الماء و جان  الاعمق من القناة بجهة الكويت و الجرف بجهة العراق فصار مركز عمق القناة من نصيب الكويت و الجرف من نصيب العراق .. مختصر مفيد البلد مبيوع من زمن صدام و اجو الحرامية بعد صدام باعو ما تبقى من البلد !!!