Iraq Security Weekly Roundup Week #3

 
Levels of violence rose slightly in Iraq last week and casualty figures were higher than normal, partly due to a double suicide bombing which hit Kirkuk, as well as a rise in bombings and shootings in the central region. In total, at least 75 people were killed and 301 injured in nationwide incidents.

A total of 39 non-suicide bomb attacks left 23 people dead and 100 injured. An additional suicide bombing in Fallujah and a double suicide bombing in Kirkuk left at least 31 more people dead and 190 injured.

A rise in small arms fire attacks left 20 people dead and six injured. Indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) left five people injured.

Salah ad-Din province saw more attacks than any other area, although violence was also concentrated in Mosul, Kirkuk, Baghdad and Fallujah. Tuz Khurmatu in Salah ad-Din province also saw several attacks, as did Babil and Diyala provinces.

Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) territory remained relatively quiet although the Turkish air force continues to conduct cross-border raids in search of Kurdish rebels. The south of the country saw no major outbreaks of violence. 


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Source: AKE Group.

Weekly Security Update for 21st December 2011

Levels of violence fell in Iraq over the past week, with attacks concentrated in Mosul, Baghdad and Kirkuk. There was a scattering of incidents throughout the central provinces and a notable bombing attack on oil and gas infrastructure in Basrah province. Bomb attacks left at least 15 people dead and 77 injured, a decline from the previous week, while a consistent number of small arms attacks left 15 people dead and seven injured. There were no suicide attacks recorded over the course of the week, and the country should now be considered statistically overdue.

Politicking

The political situation appears to have deteriorated considerably over recent days. There are growing concerns that the arrest warrant for vice prime minister Tariq al-Hashimi will bring Iraq’s political communities to the brink of confrontation. Whether or not there is truth in the allegations made against al-Hashimi, the ongoing pursuit of alleged Ba’athists and suspected terrorists from the Sunni community in the central provinces will increase suspicions amongst the public that a witch hunt is underway. This is hardly a situation conducive towards reconciliation, development and advancement in the post-US era of the country and does not bode well for stability and security in 2012.

The Withdrawal

AKE issued a risk advisory for Iraq following the withdrawal of US forces which concluded on 17 December. US counter-insurgency operations will no longer take place on the ground while training of the Iraqi security forces has also been significantly scaled back. The country now faces a security gap, which various threat groups, both domestic and external may attempt to capitalise on. Violence may therefore rise over the course of 2012, not least as the political environment appears to growing more competitive and confrontational.

Medical Concerns

From a practical perspective foreign personnel will no longer be able to rely on advanced medical treatment in the event of illness or injury in the country. Organisations should therefore aim to be as medically self-sufficient as possible and ensure that employees have sufficient evacuation, repatriation and insurance cover in advance of travel. Organisations should also strongly consider taking medically trained personnel with them on deployments. For further information on security and medical support in the country please emailoperations@akegroup.com.

Abductions

Three people were kidnapped in separate incidents in the central provinces last week, including a mayor in Babil province who was later found shot dead. Three ministry employees abducted last week were also found shot dead in Salah ad-Din province. AKE will be producing its quarterly update on worldwide kidnap trends in the new year. If you would like to be added to the mailing list please complete your details here.

Basrah Bombings

Up to three improvised explosive devices targeted oil pipelines servicing southern oilfields last week. There were no casualties but open sources indicate that the pipes were damaged and local output was reduced by half for at least a day. While an investigation is ongoing, there is widespread speculation over the threat group behind the incident. With the perpetrators potentially either from local communities along the length of the pipeline, or amongst energy workers themselves, the importance of due diligence, employee consultation and community engagement has once again been highlighted. It is not economically feasible to station guards along the entire length of pipeline infrastructure, but engaging with local communities and staying in close communication with employees will work well towards mitigating the risk of further violence. Needless to say, close relations with local communities will also work towards empowering the Iraqi public and illustrating that the energy sector is there for the good of the country, and not to steal a sovereign resource.

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Source :  AKE

Risk Update Worldwide

Bahrain
On 9 December riot police fired tear gas at hundreds of anti-government demonstrators attempting to march from the village of Musalla to the east of Manama, towards the pearl roundabout, which became the focus of pro-democracy unrest between January and March. Tensions remain, particularly among the country’s Shi’ah majority, and there is an ongoing risk of anti-government demonstrations that have the potential to turn violent.

Lebanon
Six people were injured when an improvised explosive device was detonated next to a UNIFIL peacekeeping patrol in the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon on 9 December. The attack was the third targeting the international force this year, which is made up of mainly French and Italian troops. Further attacks are likely; it remains unclear who is responsible.

Libya
Gunfights broke out near the international airport on 11 December when militiamen opened fire on the convoy of army chief Major-General Khalifa Haftar. The initial incident was followed by hours of armed clashes, with army officials claiming that former rebel militiamen from the Zintan brigade were responsible for the initial attack. Tensions are likely to increase further in the capital as a deadline for militia groups to return home moves closer.

Mexico
A professor at Pachuca Polytechnic University was injured by a letter bomb on 8 December. The academic belongs to the institution's security committee and is the third attack of its type this year. Radical, single-issue groups, such as one that opposes nanotechnology, are known to campaign strongly in academic institutions across the country; the attack highlights the terrorist threat posed by these groups as well as other, better-known elements in the country.

Peru
In an unexpected move, Prime Minister Saloman Lerner resigned on 10 December, prompting the rest of the cabinet to stand down in accordance with Peruvian law. President Humala was forced into a considerable cabinet reshuffle, as part of which a number of his friends and confidantes have been given key portfolios. Lerner was a popular man and his departure has unsettled those key sectors of Peruvian society that have been less than impressed with the President's unsympathetic attitude towards striking miners.

Russia
Thousands of protesters took to the streets in Moscow on 10 December to demand political reforms and a rerun of parliamentary elections. The protests were the largest Moscow has seen for several years and were notable for the lack of arrests and violence which often mar opposition activities. On 12 December, President Medvedev rejected calls for a rerun to be held but ordered a probe to be held into electoral fraud allegations.

Syria
At least 18 people were killed in clashes around the country on 11 December. In Homs, 11 people were killed; there are concerns that the military may be preparing for a full military assault on the city. Violence was also reported in northern Idlib province and in the south of the country near the Jordanian border. A general strike called by opposition activists was observed in some parts of Damascus although fear of reprisals by pro-government militias likely kept many at home.


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Source: AKE

How Iraq’s Religious Parties Attempted To Seize Power In The Post-Invasion Vacuum

In April 2003, the government of Saddam Hussein fell. With it went the bureaucracy and the security forces. Into this vacuum stepped local Shiite clerics and exile political parties, all attempting to take advantage of the chaos to seize power. The Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) in coordination with Iran moved in thousands of its militiamen. Moqtada al-Sadr’s followers tried to take over in major cities, and killed one of his main rivals. The SIIC and Sadrists were not only able to take control of some areas of the country during this period, but set the stage for them to become the new leaders of Iraq.
The Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) was one of the largest and most well organized parties to step into the void created by the overthrow of Saddam. As early as November 2001, the SIIC’s militia, the Badr Brigade met with friendly tribes, to begin planning for post-Saddam Iraq. Badr told the sheikhs to take over government offices after the impending U.S. invasion. This was coordinated with the Iranians, which the SIIC had close ties to. The Supreme Council’s founders Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim and Sayid Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who came from one of Iraq’s leading religious families, fled to Iran during the Iran-Iraq War where they created the party. They pledged allegiance to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard created the Badr Brigade to help in its war with Baghdad. The Supreme Council would later forge ties with the Americans, participating in various opposition meetings before the March 2003 invasion. The U.S. ended up picking the SIIC as being the main Shiite party it would work with, despite its ties to Iran. This was partly due to its connections with other leading opposition parties like the Kurds and the Iraqi National Congress, all of which the SIIC had worked with for years. In the new Iraq, the Hakims were hoping to play upon their name, opposition to Saddam, support from Tehran, and organization to take advantage of the U.S. invasion. This gave it an early lead to become one of the new powers in the country.

Immediately after the March 2003 invasion, the SIIC sent in thousands of its Badr Brigade fighters into Iraq. They positioned some in Kurdistan before the attack, while others moved in from Iran. The United States was aware of these moves, and warned Badr that it would be attacked if it were encountered during the invasion. In April 2003, the U.S. deployed peshmerga and Special Forces into Diyala province to try to block Badr from entering from Iran there. Neither of these actions deterred the Supreme Council however. The Badr Brigade was able to seize key cities in Diyala, and ended up fighting Baathists, Sunni tribes, and the Iranian-opposition party Mujahedeen e-Khalq in the province. This forced the United States to try to disarm the Badr, which only partially worked. The SIIC also moved to seize power in southern Iraqi cities like Basra, Najaf, and Karbala. In Kut, the capital of Wasit for example, SIIC cleric Sayid Abbas Fadhil claimed control of the city, and took over the city hall before U.S. forces arrived. The Badr Brigade also began assassinating Baathists. While being nominally aligned with the United States, the Supreme Council proved to have its own agenda. The SIIC had been waiting for twenty years for the fall of Saddam, and were not going to pass up the opportunity to assert itself across Iraq. They moved into Shiite areas of northern and southern Iraq, went after their opponents like former regime members, and set themselves up as the new government in parts of the country.

Moqtada al-Sadr was also active during this period. First, Ayatollah Kadhem al-Hussein al-Haeri, a leading cleric based in Qom, Iran, appointed Sadr his representative in Iraq on April 7, 2003. The next day, al-Haeri issued a Fatwa calling on Shiites to seize power, and to oppose the United States. At the same time, Sadrists began asserting their control over Sadr City in Baghdad and southern Iraq, setting up offices, banning alcohol, and making women wear veils. On April 10, Sadr’s followers assassinated one of Moqtada’s main rivals, Sayid Abdul Majid al-Khoei in the Imam Ali shrine in Najaf, and surrounded the house of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most senior cleric in Iraq, threatening him as well. Like the Supreme Council, the Sadrists tried to take over local administration in several of the country’s cities. Sadr’s followers also began working at the grass roots level with their offices that distributed social services to build up its support. Sadr went on to directly challenge his rivals by assassinating Sayid Khoei and threatening Ayatollah Sistani. Those events set the trend for the Sadrists as they would become the main movement of the Shiite poor, as well as one of the more violent militias.

Both the Hakims and Sadr were able to translate their early moves after the U.S. invasion into political power in post-Saddam Iraq. In 2003, Sayid Abdul Aziz Hakim became a member of the Iraqi Governing Council put together by the Coalition Provisional Authority. The Sadrists led two revolts in 2004, and became the major Shiite opposition group to the Americans. In 2005, the two parties decided to work together in the United Iraqi Alliance, which ended up winning the most seats in parliament in the two elections held that year. They then took over local administrations, provincial councils, governorships, and police forces in southern Iraq as a result. They then turned on Sunnis in response to the constant sectarian attacks by groups like Al Qaeda in Iraq, as well as fighting each other for dominance of southern Iraq. The United States was caught flatfooted to deal with any of this. They did not expect the government to totally collapse in the wake of the invasion, and did nothing during the chaotic weeks that followed when the war was officially over. That space allowed groups like the Supreme Council and Sadrists to rise to prominence. The SIIC turned out to be the party, the United States decided to work with, because it was willing to cooperate with them, while the Sadrists were considered a threat, because they constantly called for the Americans to leave the country, and were willing to use force to achieve that. Today, both parties remain members of the government, which is in part, the result of their aggressive moves to seize power in the wake of the U.S. invasion.
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Source: AK News

BASRA - Several people were killed and dozens injured in a marketplace bombing in Basra on 24 November.

Coinciding with both Thanksgiving and the start of a major oil and gas conference the bombers may have been sending a signal to the international community.

Hundreds of US vehicles are currently snaking their way along Iraqi highways as part of the ongoing withdrawal from the country. There are also numerous foreign delegates in the city for the Basra International Oil and Gas conference. However, the marketplace was likely viewed as a softer target, easier for the terrorists to attack. Security remains an obstacle for firms looking to work in Iraq. However, conditions are still quieter in the oil-rich south of the country than in the central and northern regions. Despite the latest attack, Basra still sees far fewer incidents of violence than Baghdad, which bodes well for the numerous companies looking to work in the area. 
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Source: AKE