Worlwide Risk Report

Bahrain
Seven policemen were wounded when an improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated at a protest in the village of Eker, near the capital Manama on 10 April. Levels of violence have gradually escalated over recent months, and are likely to raise questions over the efficacy of continuing with the Bahrain Grand Prix, due to take place in April.

Chile
A bomb exploded outside a Banco de Estado branch on Jose Pedro Alessandri avenue in Santiago’s Macul district on 9 April. The device was rudimentary and caused only superficial damage; this means of attack coupled with the anarchist pamphlets found nearby suggest a small, anarchist group was responsible. The incident follows a spate of attacks against bank branches in February.

Colombia
The head of the FARC denied that the group is weakening, and launched several attacks on military targets over the weekend to reinforce the point. A bomb attack in Putumayo and an ambush in the Choco killed up to nine troops. Attacks on the military are likely to intensify as the FARC concentrates its efforts on government targets and regional groups articulate their dissatisfaction with central committee policies.

Kosovo
A bomb detonated in the northern town of Mitrovica killed an ethnic Albanian man and injured his family members on 8 April. Mitrovica is a flashpoint for inter-ethnic violence between Albanians and Serbs, and tensions are likely to increase in the run-up to local and general elections in Serbia on 6 May.

Malawi
Following the death of President Bingu wa Mutharika on 5 April, former Vice-President Joyce Banda was sworn in as President of Malawi on 7 April. One of Mutharika’s fiercest critics, she publicly appealed for calm. However, Banda has already sacked controversial police chief Peter Mukhito, an ally of the late president, suggesting her rule will mark a welcome change for the country and end its international isolation.

Mali
Ousted President Toure formally resigned as part of an ECOWAS-sponsored deal to restore civilian order announced on 6 April. Under the deal, Diouncounda Traore, who is the president of the National Assembly, will be appointed as the interim president of Mali with a mission to organise elections within 40 days. Sanctions were lifted immediately, but instability is likely in the immediate run-up to the elections.

Nigeria
An Easter Sunday car bombing in Kaduna killed 38 people and injured many others. The vehicle exploded on a busy street in the centre of the town, and reports suggest that it was heading towards a church. In Jos, a bomb exploded the same day, injuring several people. No one has taken responsibility for the attacks yet, but Boko Haram warned of attacks over Easter.
Papua New Guinea
Papua New Guinea's parliament voted on 5 April to delay mid-year national elections by six months, prolonging a political crisis in the resource-rich South Pacific nation and prompting Australia to ask for the decision to be reviewed. Parliament was told electoral rolls were not up-to-date and police not ready to provide enough security for the polls, which are held every five years and scheduled for June.

Yemen
At least 57 people were killed during clashes on 10 April, that were sparked when suspected Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)-linked Ansar al-Sharia militants attacked a military base near the southern city of Loder, in Abyan province. The group has been highly active in Abyan province since the beginning of the uprising in 2011, and have intensified operations since the election of Saleh's former deputy as interim leader.

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Source: AKEINTAKE, AKE

Worldwide Kidnap Report

LONDON Feb 17 (Reuters) - Kidnap and ransom trends are in constant flux, with Somali piracy and Mexican kidnapping on the up, while hostage-taking in Colombia and Iraq is in decline.

Below is an overview of global kidnap trends with estimates of the numbers of foreigners taken captive every month, compiled largely with information from risk consultancy AKE's quarterly kidnap and ransom report.

INDIAN OCEAN -- 95 PER MONTH

Somali pirates hijacking merchant ships in the Indian Ocean frequently take more foreigners hostage in a single month than all other kidnappers in the world combined. Experts estimate several hundred Somalis head out in small boats and increasingly on larger captured motherships, boarding vessels and sailing them to pirate havens. At any given time, the pirates are estimated to hold up to 700 hostages, mainly aboard their ships in worsening conditions. Ransoms have risen swiftly over the last year, with the record payment said to be $9 million for a Korean tanker late last year. The average settlement per ship is estimated to be $3-4 million, with ships usually held for more than 100 days. Shippers warn that despite international naval patrols, the problem is worsening to the extent ships may be forced to take a longer route around Africa, driving up costs.

MEXICO -- 20 PER MONTH

Kidnapping in Mexico is rising swiftly. Most attacks target migrant workers from elsewhere in Central and Latin America. These range from "express kidnappings", in which the victim is taken to an ATM and forced to pay their own ransom, to abductions lasting up to about 60 days. Abductions of Mexicans are on the rise, but limited reporting makes estimating the numbers difficult. So far, Western nationals have not tended to be targeted. The upper limit for a payout has reportedly been $30 million.

GULF OF GUINEA -- 5 PER MONTH

While the dangers of piracy and attacks on shipping and oil platforms in the Gulf of Guinea pale in comparison to those in the Indian Ocean, the threat is seen growing particularly ahead of Nigeria's April 2011 elections. Attacks tend to be more violent than those from Somali pirates and the danger to crew higher. The average time in captivity is less than 30 days and ransoms vary from $10,000-$2 million.

NIGERIA -- 1-2 PER MONTH

Kidnapping of foreigners and locals continues to be a problem in Nigeria, particularly in the Niger Delta with the threat from both militants and armed gangs. Ransoms for foreign nationals range from $28,000-$204,000, with ransom payments for Nigerians generally less than $100,000. Time spent in captivity is varied, with the longest period some 465 days.

SUDAN -- 1 PER MONTH

Kidnapping, particularly of aid staff in Sudan's Darfur region, is seen on the increase and is restricting relief operations. Charity workers, United Nations staff and African Union peacekeepers have all been targeted. The average time spent in captivity is 100 days. There is insufficient data to estimate average ransom payments for foreign nationals. Sudanese command ransoms of less than $100,000.

AFGHANISTAN -- 1-2 PER MONTH

The risk of kidnap of foreigners, particularly aid staff, reduces relief work in Afghanistan. A particularly high proportion of kidnaps there ended in violent deaths, either through execution or during special forces rescue missions. Foreigners kidnapped and released alive can wait up to 300 days, with ransoms ranging from $300,000-$750,000. Some 5-10 Afghans are taken hostage each week with ransoms of less than $100,000.

SAHEL -- 1 PER MONTH

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) appears to have stepped up efforts to kidnap foreigners in North Africa's Sahel region, while local tribes have also used this as a revenue stream. Experts estimate kidnapping could have given $65 million to AQIM since 2005, the majority of its revenue stream. French forces have taken an increasingly aggressive approach with mixed results as they launch military rescue missions.

PAKISTAN -- 1 PER MONTH

Both militant groups and criminal gangs kidnap Pakistanis and occasionally foreigners. Pakistanis are generally held for about 30 days for ransoms of about $50,000, while foreigners tend to be held for longer with the record being 500 days.

REST OF AFRICA

Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia each see on average slightly less than one foreign national kidnapped a month. In Congo, risks are seen highest in the east, with extractive industry staff and aid workers most at risk. The number of foreigners kidnapped in Somalia is low as so few operate there, but ransoms can be as high as $3 million and victims held for prolonged periods. There are fears kidnapped foreigners might be sold to al Qaeda-linked Islamist groups who might kill them for propaganda value or try to trade them for prisoner exchange.

MIDDLE EAST

Kidnappings of both foreigners and local Iraqis soared in the aftermath of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion but have since fallen sharply. Yemen is now seen as the Middle Eastern country in which foreigners are most at risk of kidnap.

ASIA

Outside Pakistan and Afghanistan, the greatest danger of kidnap in Asia is seen in the Philippines. Islamist militants have targeted wealthy Chinese-Filipino businessmen and students.

LATIN AMERICA

Kidnapping in Colombia has fallen sharply due to disarray amongst militant groups, public anger at the tactic and better coordination by security forces. Kidnapping is seen on the increase in Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador.

EUROPE

The former Soviet Union is seen as having the highest risk of kidnap for foreigners, while a bad harvest has seen an increasing trend of farmers being kidnapped in an attempt to gain control of their grain stores. Short duration "tiger kidnaps" are becoming increasingly common in Western Europe due to the economic crisis, particularly in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. (Editing by Janet Lawrence)

Quarterly Kidnap Report

LONDON – Risk consultancy firm AKE has released its quarterly Kidnap Report, confirming Latin America as the top hotspot for kidnap and ransom incidents. Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia continue to register the highest number of abductions worldwide.

AKE’s kidnap analyst Taryn Evans explains that the pressure being placed on rebel and criminal groups is likely to lead to an increase in opportunistic kidnap in both Colombia and Mexico in the short term. The northern triangle of Central America is likely to see an accompanying rise in the number of abductions as the security situation continues to deteriorate. In Venezuela foreign nationals are at high risk in urban centres, with express kidnappings occurring with the greatest frequency.

“Kidnap groups across the region are rapidly developing into sophisticated networks that are capable of operating transnationally” Evans adds.

The Afghanistan / Pakistan border region is also high risk, with businessmen, tradesmen and construction workers being frequently targeted. Insecurity overall is also set to increase in Iraq following the withdrawal of US troops. This will likely lead to an increase in the number of abductions in 2012.

Africa has witnessed a noticeable deterioration in security conditions over the last three months. In the east, along the Somalia / Kenya border, four foreign nationals were taken, all of whom remain in captivity.

“The deteriorating humanitarian situation in the region, accompanied by an influx of aid workers, is leading to higher rates of abduction, especially around refugee camps”, explains Evans.

Further west in the Sahel region, kidnappings have increased in and around Mali, where five foreign nationals were taken and one shot dead.

“Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is likely to begin teaming up with returning Tuareg fighters in the coming months and try to extend its influence into northern Nigeria.”

World Risk Updates, 09 January 2012

China – Philippines
The Philippines accused China of violating the 2002 ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea after Chinese vessels were spotted inside the Philippine territory in the Spratly Islands, an area also claimed as part of Chinese territory.

Germany
Germany’s President Christian Wulff continues to come under increasing pressure following allegations of a loan scandal. The President has so far rejected calls for his resignation but his political support could be waning as opposition leaders indicate they are willing to find a consensus candidate. His resignation could spark a crisis for Merkel’s coalition government as it struggles to maintain domestic support for its response to the Eurozone crisis.

Iran
Official reports stated that an additional major uranium enrichment facility will be established in a protected underground site near Qom. Enrichment and underground nuclear facilities are nothing new in Iran but the dispersal of such facilities in more than one well-defended site will make any military response by foreign countries much more difficult, thus strengthening Iran’s position on the nuclear issue.
Nigeria
Unknown gunmen killed at least 21 people, reportedly southern Christian worshippers, on 6 January in Adamawa state. Only a few days after Boko Haram’s threat for all Christians to leave the north expired, informal groups seem to be using publicly voiced sectarianism to conduct attacks on religious communities. The prospect of Christian groups arming themselves in the face of an ineffective state security response cannot be discounted.  
Peru-Venezuela
Petroperu has announced that it will invest in new project in the Orinoco belt. Although new President Ollanta Humala has been keen to downplay his links to President Chavez, a former mentor, the new ties, which represent a potentially hazardous investment, underline the ideological as opposed to pragmatic bonds between the two.

Philippines
More than 3 million Catholic worshippers marched through Manila on 9 January in an annual procession, despite a warning from President Benigno Aquino III that Abu Sayyaf (ASG) may try and target the marchers. Around 15,000 policemen have been deployed around the capital, amid the threat that there may be a growing likelihood that terrorists are looking further north to hit Manila.

Yemen
Cabinet proposed a draft immunity law protecting President Ali Abdullah Saleh, his family and aides from prosecution. It is still to be approved in parliament but many Yemenis are angry following extensive violence at the hands of the security forces, blamed on Saleh and members of his family. The UN also criticised the proposal as a violation of international law.

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Source: AKE