Worlwide Risk Report

Bahrain
Seven policemen were wounded when an improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated at a protest in the village of Eker, near the capital Manama on 10 April. Levels of violence have gradually escalated over recent months, and are likely to raise questions over the efficacy of continuing with the Bahrain Grand Prix, due to take place in April.

Chile
A bomb exploded outside a Banco de Estado branch on Jose Pedro Alessandri avenue in Santiago’s Macul district on 9 April. The device was rudimentary and caused only superficial damage; this means of attack coupled with the anarchist pamphlets found nearby suggest a small, anarchist group was responsible. The incident follows a spate of attacks against bank branches in February.

Colombia
The head of the FARC denied that the group is weakening, and launched several attacks on military targets over the weekend to reinforce the point. A bomb attack in Putumayo and an ambush in the Choco killed up to nine troops. Attacks on the military are likely to intensify as the FARC concentrates its efforts on government targets and regional groups articulate their dissatisfaction with central committee policies.

Kosovo
A bomb detonated in the northern town of Mitrovica killed an ethnic Albanian man and injured his family members on 8 April. Mitrovica is a flashpoint for inter-ethnic violence between Albanians and Serbs, and tensions are likely to increase in the run-up to local and general elections in Serbia on 6 May.

Malawi
Following the death of President Bingu wa Mutharika on 5 April, former Vice-President Joyce Banda was sworn in as President of Malawi on 7 April. One of Mutharika’s fiercest critics, she publicly appealed for calm. However, Banda has already sacked controversial police chief Peter Mukhito, an ally of the late president, suggesting her rule will mark a welcome change for the country and end its international isolation.

Mali
Ousted President Toure formally resigned as part of an ECOWAS-sponsored deal to restore civilian order announced on 6 April. Under the deal, Diouncounda Traore, who is the president of the National Assembly, will be appointed as the interim president of Mali with a mission to organise elections within 40 days. Sanctions were lifted immediately, but instability is likely in the immediate run-up to the elections.

Nigeria
An Easter Sunday car bombing in Kaduna killed 38 people and injured many others. The vehicle exploded on a busy street in the centre of the town, and reports suggest that it was heading towards a church. In Jos, a bomb exploded the same day, injuring several people. No one has taken responsibility for the attacks yet, but Boko Haram warned of attacks over Easter.
Papua New Guinea
Papua New Guinea's parliament voted on 5 April to delay mid-year national elections by six months, prolonging a political crisis in the resource-rich South Pacific nation and prompting Australia to ask for the decision to be reviewed. Parliament was told electoral rolls were not up-to-date and police not ready to provide enough security for the polls, which are held every five years and scheduled for June.

Yemen
At least 57 people were killed during clashes on 10 April, that were sparked when suspected Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)-linked Ansar al-Sharia militants attacked a military base near the southern city of Loder, in Abyan province. The group has been highly active in Abyan province since the beginning of the uprising in 2011, and have intensified operations since the election of Saleh's former deputy as interim leader.

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Source: AKEINTAKE, AKE

Worldwide Risk updates

Libya
The National Transitional Council (NTC) sent military forces to the south eastern town of al-Kufra, where clashes between rival local tribes have killed dozens of people. Militiamen from the Zwai tribe have clashed with fighters from the Tibu ethnic group led by Isa Abdel Majid, who they accuse of attacking al-Kufra backed by mercenaries from Chad.

Mexico
The arrest of Jaime Herrera Herrera, a drug maker for the Sinaloa cartel, will have little impact on the cartel’s trade in methamphetamine but will further impede its efforts to assert control over its existing territories. Any decline in revenue along with a corresponding loss of personnel will hit the cartel hard as Los Zetas seek to encroach upon their western strongholds. Increased violence in these regions should be anticipated.

North Korea
The DPRK stepped up its rhetoric by targeting the series of joint military drills planned by South Korea and the US. In return, live fire exercises by the North are anticipated although artillery attacks are not expected.

Russia
Ibrahim Khalil Daudov, Dagestani branch commander of Doka Umarov’s Caucasus Emirate insurgency, was reportedly killed by police in Dagestan on 11 February in a raid against Islamic militants near the village of Gurbuki; his body remained unidentified until 14 February.  His death comes as part of a recently launched campaign against insurgents in the Chechen-Dagestani border area.   

Senegal
Violence continued in and around Dakar ahead of presidential elections on 26 February, with six having been killed thus far. Demonstrations have occurred following police use of teargas nearby a Mosque in the capital on 17 February. Security forces are expected to respond to increased violence with a heavy handed response.

Yemen
An explosion damaged a polling station in the southern port city of Aden on 20 February, one day before presidential elections were due to begin. Former Vice-President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi is the only candidate in the elections due to terms agreed in a transition deal. There is a risk of further attacks by Islamist and southern separatist militants throughout the country over the election period.

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Source: AKE

World Risk Updates, 09 January 2012

China – Philippines
The Philippines accused China of violating the 2002 ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea after Chinese vessels were spotted inside the Philippine territory in the Spratly Islands, an area also claimed as part of Chinese territory.

Germany
Germany’s President Christian Wulff continues to come under increasing pressure following allegations of a loan scandal. The President has so far rejected calls for his resignation but his political support could be waning as opposition leaders indicate they are willing to find a consensus candidate. His resignation could spark a crisis for Merkel’s coalition government as it struggles to maintain domestic support for its response to the Eurozone crisis.

Iran
Official reports stated that an additional major uranium enrichment facility will be established in a protected underground site near Qom. Enrichment and underground nuclear facilities are nothing new in Iran but the dispersal of such facilities in more than one well-defended site will make any military response by foreign countries much more difficult, thus strengthening Iran’s position on the nuclear issue.
Nigeria
Unknown gunmen killed at least 21 people, reportedly southern Christian worshippers, on 6 January in Adamawa state. Only a few days after Boko Haram’s threat for all Christians to leave the north expired, informal groups seem to be using publicly voiced sectarianism to conduct attacks on religious communities. The prospect of Christian groups arming themselves in the face of an ineffective state security response cannot be discounted.  
Peru-Venezuela
Petroperu has announced that it will invest in new project in the Orinoco belt. Although new President Ollanta Humala has been keen to downplay his links to President Chavez, a former mentor, the new ties, which represent a potentially hazardous investment, underline the ideological as opposed to pragmatic bonds between the two.

Philippines
More than 3 million Catholic worshippers marched through Manila on 9 January in an annual procession, despite a warning from President Benigno Aquino III that Abu Sayyaf (ASG) may try and target the marchers. Around 15,000 policemen have been deployed around the capital, amid the threat that there may be a growing likelihood that terrorists are looking further north to hit Manila.

Yemen
Cabinet proposed a draft immunity law protecting President Ali Abdullah Saleh, his family and aides from prosecution. It is still to be approved in parliament but many Yemenis are angry following extensive violence at the hands of the security forces, blamed on Saleh and members of his family. The UN also criticised the proposal as a violation of international law.

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Source: AKE