Iraq "In Focus"

Initial results of the 20 April provincial elections show Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s State of
Law coalition leading in eight of the twelve provinces holding elections, reports Reuters. With 87 per
cent of the ballots tabulated, the coalition’s strong showing consolidates Maliki’s position ahead of
2014 parliamentary elections.
Prime Minister Maliki appeared to blame the Syrian civil war for Iraq’s growing sectarian violence,
according to Al Jazeera. Maliki stated, “[s]trife is knocking on the doors of everyone, and no one will
survive if it enters, because there is a wind behind it, and money, and plans”. Iraq’s most recent wave
of violence began on 23 April when government security forces moved against anti-government
protesters, primarily Sunni, in the town of Hawijad sparking
clashes that left 53 people dead, according to Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). Following five days of bloody
violence in Iraq, Australian Associated Press (AAP) reports
more than 215 people killed in sectarian attacks. UN Special
Envoy to Iraq Martin Kobler urged political, tribal and religious
leaders “not to let anger win over peace”, warning that the
country was “at a crossroads”, reports BBC. In an effort to quell
violence in the country, Iraqi authorities suspended the licenses
of ten television satellite stations on 28 April. Iraqi authorities
accused the stations of inciting sectarian violence, according to
BBC. Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission stated that
stations such as pro-Sunni Al Jazeera encouraged revenge
against security forces after the raiding of a Sunni protest camp
on 22 April that sparked country-wide violence.


Meanwhile, as fighting raged in the northern city of Fallujah and villages surrounding Baquba there were signs that Maliki’s military was “fracturing along sectarian lines”, reports New York Times (NYT). An influential Sunni cleric, Sheik Abdul Malik al-Saadi, has urged members of Iraq’s security forces to abandon their posts and join the opposition. The Iraqi army is already facing Sunni attrition within its ranks. Also, AAP reports that Sunni Minister of Education Mohammed Ali Tamimand Minister of Science and Technology Abdulkarim al Samarraie resigned from their Cabinet posts after the 22 April incident.
A number of other security-related events were reported this past week. A group of unidentified gunmen seized the government offices of the Sunni town Sulaiman Bek on 25 April, according to Middle East Online. Soon after, Iraqi forces used helicopter gunships to fire at militants hiding in the village which was eventually retaken on 26 April, reports NYT. On 26 April, three Sunni mosque bombings in Baghdad and an additional bombing north of the country’s capital left four dead and fifty wounded, reports AAP. In Sunni-majority Anbar province, militants shot and killed five Iraqi soldiers on 27 April, reports Reuters. As a result, a curfew was imposed throughout Anbar province, according to RFE/RL. On the same day, Reuters reports that Sunni tribes from Anbar province announced the formation of the Army of Pride and Dignity, “meant to protect Anbar province”, according to Sheikh Saeed Al Lafi. Also, Kurdish security forces deployed beyond the formal boundary of their autonomous region on 27 April, a move they said was to protect civilians in the oil-rich territory over which both the Kurds and Baghdad claim jurisdiction, according to Reuters. On 29 April, five car bombs struck predominately Shi’ite cities and districts across Iraq, killing 36 people and wounding scores more, reports Associated Press (AP).
Murat Karayilan, military head of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK1) told Voice of America (VOA) that an estimated 2,000 PKK fighters would commence their withdrawal from Turkey in early May 2013 and expect completion within several months. The announcement is the first major step forward in the peace process between the Turkish government and PKK rebels. Additionally, PKK members will receive political training in the Kandil Mountains of northern Iraq, according to UPI. After training is completed, the PKK will launch a democratization campaign in Iraq.
In economic news, Russian oil company Lukoil expects to produce 150,000 crude barrels per day from the West Qurna-2 field by January 2014, reports UPI. The West Qurna complex is near the Iraqi port city of Basra and is estimated to contain as many as 14 billion barrels of crude.
Thanks & Regards,
Mohamedridha Alaskari.

____________________________________________
As it of: CimicWeb. Landa Lavender, resources: AP, AAP, NYT, RFE/RL, BBC, VOA,

Raises security risk rating for Iraq

 The country is now rated at 38 (Grave Security Concerns), up one point from 37 as a result of a recent increase in violence in the country.

The Iraqi security forces are reported to have killed several people when they opened fire on demonstrators at an anti-government protest in the northern town of Hawijah earlier on 23 April.

This will likely prompt an intensification of anti-government sentiments elsewhere in the country and could lead to more sporadic violence at protests in towns such as Mosul and Fallujah.

Terrorist organisations may also increase their bombing campaigns against government and security force targets in an attempt to win sympathy from the demonstrators.

Bombings should also be expected over the coming few days as the results of the recent provincial elections are due to be announced.

Levels of violence are currently higher than normal in Iraq. At least 108 people were killed and 309 injured in nationwide incidents last week. It saw more attacks than any other week so far this year.

_________________________________________
Source: AKE Group

Iraq Weekly Roundup week # 11

As Iraq prepares to mark the ten-year anniversary of the multinational invasion, security conditions remain poor in the country.

The overall number of attacks remained relatively unchanged last week when compared to weeks earlier in the year, although there was a fall in the number of fatalities.

At least 78 people were killed and 185 injured in nationwide incidents, which is relatively standard.

The previous week had seen an unusually high death toll, partly because of an attack on Syrian soldiers in Anbar province which left dozens dead.

Last week saw at least 40 non-suicide explosive attacks, which is higher than normal, but the majority of devices used were relatively small or low-yielding in terms of casualties inflicted. They left 16 people dead and 84 injured.

Three additional suicide explosive attacks left 23 people dead and 86 injured, including several in an attack against the Ministry of Justice in central Baghdad.

There was a fall in the number of shooting attacks, which left 37 people dead and 15 injured, but there was nonetheless a rise in the use of the tactic against election officials and ministry employees, especially in Baghdad.

Violence was concentrated in the usual hotspots of Baghdad (which saw more fatalities than anywhere else in the country) Mosul and Kirkuk, with clusters in Fallujah, Ba'qubah, Tikrit, Riyadh and Bayji.

The southern city of Basrah was also hit by a rare double bombing over the weekend left around 35 causalities. 

____________________________
Source: AKE  

Iraq Security Weekly Roundup Week #4

At least 96 people were killed and 263 injured in Iraqi violence last week. The total number of attacks did not rise considerably from recent weeks, but the number of associated casualties did.

A total of 34 bomb attacks left 61 people dead and 167 injured, including a suicide bombing in Tuz Khurmatu which left 35 people dead and 70 injured. Small arms fire attacks left 35 people dead and 36 injured. There were also several indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) but they did not cause any casualties.

The most hostile part of the country was Anbar province, which saw a notable deterioration in conditions. Local Sunni residents continue to demonstrate against what they perceive to be state discrimination against their community. Protests turned violent last week with a number of people killed and injured in stand-offs with the security forces. The local mood is likely to remain volatile and personnel should be prepared for a possible escalation if the government does not take appropriate steps.

Violence was also concentrated in the northern city of Mosul and the province of Salah ad-Din while Baghdad and Diyala province also saw a number of attacks. Both the south of the country and KRG territory in the north were quiet.

______________________________________
Source: AKE

Iraq Weekly Roundup. Last week in 2012

Levels of violence fell in Iraq last week. At least 21 people were killed and 55 injured in nationwide incidents, a relatively low figure for the country.

A total of 21 bomb attacks left two people dead and 42 injured. Most of the devices were small and evidently low-yielding in terms of the number of casualties caused. There were no suicide bombings reported.

Small arms fire attacks left 17 people dead and five injured. Indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) left one person dead and three injured. Two people were also abducted although one was freed by the police a few hours later.

Violence was concentrated in the centre of the country, as well as the northern city of Mosul which saw more attacks than anywhere else. The south of the country was relatively quiet although the authorities are preparing for possible attacks over the coming days. The Kurdish region also saw ongoing Turkish military operations against Kurdish rebels in the mountains.

At the time of writing a series of additional bombings have also been reported around the country, with casualties reported in Babil, Diyala and Ta'mim provinces. Shi'ah pilgrims are amongst the victims and more such attacks against them should be anticipated over the coming days as they gather to mark Arba'een, due to culminate on 3 January.


_____________________________
Source: AKE Group

Iraq Weekly Roundup WEEK # 32

Levels of violence fell in Iraq last week, but conditions are still relatively worse than normal, particularly in the central region. At least 100 people were killed and 148 injured in nationwide incidents.

A total of 31 bomb attacks left 52 people dead and 112 injured, a fall from the previous week. There was a rise in the number of small arms fire attacks, which left 43 people dead and 36 injured.

The main hubs of violence were Fallujah, Ba'qubah, Tikrit, Baghdad, Kirkuk and Mosul. The south of the country saw no major incidents. Aside from a small demonstration in Sulaymaniyah and ongoing Turkish military operations on the border, Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) territory was also quiet.

A spate of attacks targeted the security forces in the central provinces on 2 August while several planned breakouts and attacks on prisons took place. An Iraqi journalist was also shot dead in Mosul on 31 July.

Tensions continue to rise between the Kurdish and Federal authorities, with a non-violent but potentially explosive standoff occurring between the Peshmerga and Iraqi army in a disputed area of Ninawa province over the course of the week. The federal troops have since withdrawn but the situation may escalate once again along the disputed belt of Ninawa, Diyala and Ta'mim provinces.

Note that the government has implemented a ruling granting a public day off on every Thursday during Ramadan.

____________________________
Source: AKE

Iraq Weekly Roundup

Summary
Levels of violence rose in Iraq last week. Security measures were gradually relaxed following the conclusion of the Arab League Summit which appeared to grant militants slightly more opportunity to conduct attacks.
Geographical Distribution
At least 29 people were killed and 19 injured in nationwide incidents, with Mosul suffering the majority of the country’s violence. Kirkuk was the next most badly affected area, whilst Baghdad saw only three attacks. Even the normally stable city of Arbil in Kurdistan saw a rare sticky bomb attack. The south of the country remained relatively quiet.
Tactics
A total of 20 bomb attacks left 10 people dead and 12 injured countrywide. This is a rise from the previous week but the majority of the devices were small and low-yielding in terms of casualties. There were no suicide bombings recorded. A rise in the number of small arms fire attacks left 16 people dead and five injured. This is a relatively high figure, with most incidents taking place in Mosul. An additional indirect fire attack, also in Mosul, left two people dead and two injured.
Kidnap for Ransom
Two civilians were abducted in Kirkuk, which remains the abduction capital of the country. Indeed AKE’s latest K&R report shows it to be one of the worst cities in the world for kidnap and ransom activity.
Energy Sector Violence
The oil sector was targeted in two attacks last week, with the authorities making safe an explosive device on a field in Diyala province. Three devices also detonated on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline in Salah ad-Din province, disrupting supply through the facility for 24 hours. An officer from the oil police was also shot dead in an attack in Kirkuk. The sector remains an attractive target and organisations are advised to review safety and contingency plans surrounding their operations.

_____________________________________________
Source: AKE

Building Iraq's Military (Al-Akhbar, March 1)

The US Embassy in Baghdad announced earlier this week that the Iraqi army has received a new batch of Abrams tanks. It said that the US has already delivered 131 tanks to the army and is close to completing the full delivery of 140. The Iraqi defense ministry confirmed receiving them, adding that the Iraqi forces have completed their training in the new tanks.

But some parliament members said that they were surprised that the US Embassy is withholding the remaining tanks. These parliament members demanded an investigation be opened into why there were not delivered.

According to a US Embassy statement, however, "the nine remaining tanks are in Iraq, but in US possession...waiting for the arrival of certain components for these tanks so it can deliver a complete purchase to the Iraqi army in accordance with US government standards. As soon as the components arrive, OSC-I (Office of Security Cooperation-Iraq) will deliver the additional nine tanks to the Iraqi army. We expect this will take place within the coming weeks."

The delivery of the tanks comes as part of a major and long-term plan to allegedly arm the Iraqi military with modern US weapons. This is particularly important now that Iraq has the capacity to deploy a professional army based on voluntary, rather than obligatory, recruitment.

Although different numbers are floating around on the possible cost of the arms deal, the official estimate was declared by General Muhammad al-Askari, the defense ministry spokesman, who put it at US$13 billion.

Al-Askari said that the government has signed contracts with Washington that include the purchase of F-16 fighter jets, helicopters, tanks, warships, and light weapons.

Iraq had requested 18 F-16 fighter jets at US$2.5 billion, or US$150 million per jet, as the first installment for purchasing 100 F-16's.

But the weapons deal has been surrounded by controversy from its very inception.

Iraqi Kurdish leaders have expressed strong reservations in regards to arming the Iraqi military.Iraqi Kurdish leaders - recalling their bitter experiences with previous governments - have expressed strong reservations in regards to arming the Iraqi military with such modern weapons, fearing that the federal government might use them against the Kurds in the future.

Kurdish leaders have privately told media sources that they have asked the US administration to impose a condition on Baghdad that would ban its jets from flying over autonomous Kurdish airspace.

But the request was turned down, according to Iraqi air force commander, Lieutenant Anwar Hamad Amin, who said, "Our modern jets will carry out their flights over all Iraqi airspace, including the Kurdistan region, which is part of federal Iraq and its air space."

Iraqiya List leaders Ayad Allawi and Rafe al-Essawi have joined the front opposing the armament deal in a December 7 article in the The New York Times. But the third leader in the List, Osama al-Nujaifi, publicly distanced himself from this article, saying his name was inserted without his knowledge.

In the article, the two political leaders rejected arming Iraq's military and other security forces, saying "American assistance to Iraq's army, police, and intelligence services must be conditioned on those institutions being representative of the nation rather than one sect or party."

But these politicians' reservations have not had a direct or significant effect on the arms deal. Their positions are widely seen as motivated by political and sectarian considerations.

Externally, Kuwait was alone in opposing weapons sales to Iraq, citing its fears of a new invasion similar to Saddam Hussein's 1990 assault on the emirate.

Political sources said that the official Kuwaiti criticism came from the highest political levels. As a part of this criticism, they informed Washington of their opposition to the Iraqi purchase of F-16 fighter jets. When they failed to stop the deal, Kuwait requested written US assurances that these weapons will not be used against it in the future.

Many ordinary Iraqis have also expressed opposition to the armament campaign, dismayed by poor public services, deteriorating living conditions, and the breakdown of infrastructure.

Shortages in electricity and clean drinking water have become a major problem, which the government has repeatedly failed to address, except in the autonomous region of Kurdistan.

Analysts and politicians say that there is a public awareness of the need to build a professional army capable of defending the country and confronting security challenges that often claim the lives of civilians.

But some analysts view public opposition to arms expenditures as being directed at the government's priorities more than an explicit rejection of arming the military.

"There were purchase deals where the money was paid to some countries but the weapons never arrived."Other legitimate fears expressed by political and judicial circles surrounding these enormous arms deals stem from huge corruption cases related to previous arms deals, especially under Allawi's government. In 2005, then Defense Minister Hazem Shaalan was convicted and sentenced in absentia on charges of financial corruption involving the embezzlement of US$1.3 billion.

Military affairs experts point to examples of exposed corruption cases, including a US$25 million contract approved by Shaalan's ministry, when the real value of the deal did not exceed US$5 million. According to the online newspaper of the Iraqi National Congress, led by Ahmad Chalabi, the contract put the price of one purchased bullet at 16 cents, while its real value was 4 cents.

In a 2007 report by the late Marie Colvin in The Sunday Times, she quoted Iraqi sources and Western diplomats as saying that Shaalan was accused of embezzling US$800 million from the defense ministry's budget.

This amount was part of almost US$9 billion that went missing from the general Iraqi budget during the first years of the occupation. The Sunday Times quoted Judge Radi al-Radi, the former head of the commission that investigated the case, as saying that it was one of the biggest embezzlement operations in the world.

Other examples of corruption in the armament files, which have become a popular topic among Iraqis, include press exposures of a number of cases.

For example, the defense ministry signed a deal to purchase the latest MB5 rifles, each estimated at a cost of US$3,500, but instead imported poorly made, Egyptian-made copies valued at US$200 per rifle.

Another case involves a deal to "purchase Pakistani-made armored personnel carriers, which turned out to be so old that they can barely fend off Kalashnikov bullets, let alone the fact that their steering wheels are on the right hand side, not the left."

According to analysts and observers closely monitoring this issue, these Iraqi armament scandals do not absolve Maliki's current or previous government from responsibility.

"It seems that the opportunity has not yet arose to open these files and expose scandals of corruption, which will not be any less shocking than others under the Allawi and [Ibrahim] al-Jaafari governments," as one observer put it.

Meanwhile, the parliamentary security and defense committee has before it arms deals that date back to the days of Saddam Hussein.

"There were purchase deals where the money was paid to some countries but the weapons never arrived," MP Hakem al-Zameli said, adding, "We are examining and reviewing this matter."

Analysts say that Iraqis widely expect the next government to expose new facts and strike larger deals, but that bad services will remain unchanged and the infrastructure will only deteriorate further.

This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.