Monday, February 20, 2012

Worldwide Risk updates

Libya
The National Transitional Council (NTC) sent military forces to the south eastern town of al-Kufra, where clashes between rival local tribes have killed dozens of people. Militiamen from the Zwai tribe have clashed with fighters from the Tibu ethnic group led by Isa Abdel Majid, who they accuse of attacking al-Kufra backed by mercenaries from Chad.

Mexico
The arrest of Jaime Herrera Herrera, a drug maker for the Sinaloa cartel, will have little impact on the cartel’s trade in methamphetamine but will further impede its efforts to assert control over its existing territories. Any decline in revenue along with a corresponding loss of personnel will hit the cartel hard as Los Zetas seek to encroach upon their western strongholds. Increased violence in these regions should be anticipated.

North Korea
The DPRK stepped up its rhetoric by targeting the series of joint military drills planned by South Korea and the US. In return, live fire exercises by the North are anticipated although artillery attacks are not expected.

Russia
Ibrahim Khalil Daudov, Dagestani branch commander of Doka Umarov’s Caucasus Emirate insurgency, was reportedly killed by police in Dagestan on 11 February in a raid against Islamic militants near the village of Gurbuki; his body remained unidentified until 14 February.  His death comes as part of a recently launched campaign against insurgents in the Chechen-Dagestani border area.   

Senegal
Violence continued in and around Dakar ahead of presidential elections on 26 February, with six having been killed thus far. Demonstrations have occurred following police use of teargas nearby a Mosque in the capital on 17 February. Security forces are expected to respond to increased violence with a heavy handed response.

Yemen
An explosion damaged a polling station in the southern port city of Aden on 20 February, one day before presidential elections were due to begin. Former Vice-President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi is the only candidate in the elections due to terms agreed in a transition deal. There is a risk of further attacks by Islamist and southern separatist militants throughout the country over the election period.



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Source: AKE

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