Saturday, January 28, 2012

Libya Update

Summary
The security presence around Tripoli’s major hotels increased temporarily on 26 January, however it remains unclear whether this was in response to a specific threat. In general, security in the capital remains positive. Protestors stormed the Benghazi headquarters of the interim ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) on 21 January, during protests against the presence of former Gaddafi regime members in the government, while tribal fighters reportedly loyal to Muammar Gaddafi seized the previous regime stronghold of Bani Walid, 110 miles south east of Tripoli, on 23 January. The NTC has subsequently been forced to recognise the tribally-based local government council. Hundreds of Islamist demonstrators turned out in central areas of Tripoli, Benghazi and Sabha to demand that the countries new constitution be based on Shari’a law. Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) has ended its operations in detention centres in the country after its staff were asked to patch up detainees mid-way through torture sessions. Meanwhile, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) stated it had increased production further towards pre-conflict levels, while the deputy head of the NTC Abdel Hafiz Ghoga stated on 22 January that he had resigned from his position due to the growing protests against him.

Projections
Tripoli will remain stable, although there is an ongoing risk of sporadic clashes on the outskirts of the city involving militia groups and National Army units. 

In the West of the country the risk of clashes is assessed to be higher by AKE personnel on the ground. In recent months clashes have occurred in the Warshafenna tribal areas to the west of the capital, the city of Gharyan to the south and Bani Walid to the south east. The potential for further clashes in these areas remains.

Benghazi will remain stable, although there is a risk of further demonstrations by workers calling for better pay and conditions, as well as rebels asking for increased compensation for their actions during the eight month conflict.

Tripoli
Tripoli remains stable, and movement around the city is relatively free. There are some permanent checkpoints towards the outskirts of the city, including the entrance to major districts such as Tajura and on the airport road towards Tripoli International Airport, however these are not generally stopping traffic.

AKE sources on the ground noted an increased security presence on 26 January around the city's major hotels, with an increased number of checkpoints around the centre of the city, where the majority of major hotels are located. The presence was once again reduced the on 27 January and it remains unclear whether the increased presence was in response to a specific threat or the recent instability in a number of areas in the West of the country.

Benghazi
Protestors stormed the Benghazi headquarters of the interim ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) on 21 January as demonstrations over the continued presence of Gaddafi-era officials in the organisation escalated. Protestors have been demonstrating, largely peacefully, for weeks and AKE has previously highlighted potential for sporadic violence. Former rebel fighters have also been demonstrating over the level of cash compensation received from the NTC. There is an ongoing risk of further violence of this nature.

Strikes have also been reported in Benghazi, largely involving both private and public sector workers calling for better pay and conditions. Furthermore, there are tensions in many organisations with workers who are demanding they receive their full salaries for time out of work during the 8 month conflict. Demonstrations of this nature are likely to occur in Benghazi and other major towns and cities throughout the country.

Bani Walid    
Tribal fighters reportedly loyal to Muammar Gaddafi seized the previous regime stronghold of Bani Walid, 110 miles south east of Tripoli, on 23 January. Reports suggest the attack was launched by 100-150 well armed, well organised men. The incident has highlighted the weakness of central authority in the region and raised concerns about a potential slide towards further instability and violence.
    
The NTC has been forced to recognise the tribally-based local government council, demonstrating its ineffectiveness when faced with stiff resistance by local tribal leaders. Members of the Warfalla tribe in Bani Walid stated that defence minister Osama al-Juwali accepted the new council’s authority during day-long talks in the town on 25 January, meaning the government has effectively ceded a large degree of control of the town to the local tribal elders.

Although the armed men who carried out the attack were framed in many reports as Gaddafi loyalists, the uprising was likely more to do with ongoing distrust and disagreements with the NTC and other militia groups who ensure security in the region, as opposed to any ideological attachment to the previous regime.
    
Islamist Demonstrations    
Hundreds of Islamist demonstrators turned out in central areas of Tripoli, Benghazi and Sabha to demand that the countries new constitution be based on Shari’a law. Organisers said the move was a response to the emergence of secular parties following the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. Prior to the overthrow of the former regime, no political parties existed in Libya, a fact that likely helped to prevent unity from forming between different tribal groups and regions.

Both the conservative Muslim Brotherhood and various Salafist groups were present, both of whom follow relatively conservative versions of Islam. The Brotherhood is believed to be the most organised group in the country at present, a fact that may help it gain significant ground in upcoming elections.

Torture Allegations
Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) has ended its operations in detention centres in Libya because its staff were asked to patch up detainees mid-way through torture sessions so the abuse could continue. The incidents were said to have happened in Misrata during the height of the conflict. Having informed both the Misratan Military Council and the NTC of the incidents with no subsequent action being taken, MSF decided to cease operations. 

Meanwhile an Amnesty International report claims that several people have died after being tortured by militias in Libyan detention centres in Tripoli, Gharyan and Misrata.

Oil Production    
The National Oil Corporation (NOC) said in a statement on its website that oil production had increased to 1.3 bln bpd as more companies resume production. Waha Oil Corporation, a joint venture between ConocoPhillips, Marathon, Amerada Hess and the NOC, is the latest to increase its production by restarting operations at the Dahra and Samah oil fields.

Political Section
The deputy head of the NTC Abdel Hafiz Ghoga stated on 22 January that he had resigned from his position due to the growing protests against him. Ghoga, accused of changing his allegiances to the NTC once it became clear the Gaddafi regime was finished, along with a number of other former members of the Gaddafi regime has been targeted by demonstrators calling for a complete break with the past. On 21 January, demonstrators stormed the NTC building in Benghazi as protests took a violent turn. Ghoga stated that his decision to resign was made in the national interest and to allow the NTC to proceed undistracted by questions over its legitimacy.



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Sources: AKE, INTAKE

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Libya Update, 20 January 2012

Summary
Conditions in Tripoli and Benghazi are currently calm but sporadic clashes should be anticipated in towns along the Mediterranean coast, particularly those liberated by outsider militia forces. The Gharyan-Assabia area south of Tripoli saw clashes between rival militia fighters on 13-14 January for example. AKE has also received unconfirmed reports that foreign nationals have been briefly detained in the Sabha area. Caution should be exercised in the southern desert region. Reporting conditions are poor and there is little in the way of an official security force presence in the area.
 


Projections
Tripoli will remain stable although there is a risk of further sporadic clashes involving different militia groups, which maintain a presence in some outlying areas of the city.

The process of integrating militia groups into the national army will continue, although it may be some time before an NTC-controlled body is in control of the entire city.

The risk of clashes in other major cities along the Mediterranean coast will also remain. Those cities that were liberated by outside forces, including Sirte, Gharyan, Bani Walid, Bin Jawad and Brega are more at risk of inter-factional tensions.

Benghazi will remain calm and there is less risk of inter-factional clashes than in other major cities.

Tripoli
Conditions remain outwardly calm in Tripoli. There are no longer large numbers of militia fighters roaming the streets and AKE personnel on the ground describe conditions as favourable, organised and relatively peaceful. There will remain the risk of sporadic clashes between rival militia groups if they return to the city – which will remain a likelihood over the transition period of the coming months. There is also the ongoing potential for terrorist attacks by supporters of the former regime.

Gharyan
Two people were killed and at least 16 others were wounded on 13 and 14 January during clashes between rival militia groups near the town of Gharyan, south of Tripoli. A Gharyan city council spokesman stated that fighters from the nearby town of Assabia, which he claimed was home to at least 70 known former Gaddafi loyalists, had fired artillery at Gharyan, provoking a response from local militiamen. Defence Minister Osama al-Juwali reportedly contacted officials in Gharyan and requested that they cease firing. AKE continues to warn of the risk posed by sporadic clashes throughout the country. Those areas where local rivalries are inflamed by the recent arming of local militias are proving to be particularly susceptible to sporadic fighting, and a number of clashes have occurred in the west of the country, to the south and west of the capital Tripoli.

Sabha
There have been a number of rumours of unlawful summary detentions of foreign personnel in the Sabha area. Although no details have yet been confirmed, personnel operating in the region are advised to maintain a high level of vigilance in and around the southern desert region. Those rumoured to be detained were reportedly released soon afterwards. The reports however, could not be independently verified. Security is being provided by militia groups from Zintan and movement around the area will be greatly improved if personnel travel with a Zintani guide, or a Libyan national with contacts among the militia group.

National Police Force
Libya’s Interior Ministry opened its doors on 14 January to members of the country’s militia groups looking to sign up to a national police force. However, after 24-hours, only 100 new recruits had signed up, demonstrating the challenge facing the NTC in amalgamating the militias under a single, centrally controlled umbrella. The majority of those who did sign up were from smaller militias which lacked the power to threaten the authority of the NTC. Those from the larger militia groups, particularly those from Zintan, Misrata and Benghazi, have remained reluctant to disband for fear of losing their ability to influence events, and ostensibly to safeguard the revolution from any remaining pro-Gaddafi groups.

Political Section
Twelve moderate Islamist parties have voiced their opposition to the proposed election law, published by the NTC on 2 January, claiming that by forcing candidates to run as independents in the upcoming polls, it will encourage voting along tribal lines and give undue influence to the wealthy. As Libya currently has no law regulating political parties, and no parties of any merit currently exist in the country, candidates may increasingly rely on tribal power and affiliation to win seats. This would risk alienating smaller tribal and ethnic groups in the country such as the Berbers, increasing the likelihood of inter-communal tensions following the polls.



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Source: AKE

AKE Representation
AKE’s Middle East specialist Alan Fraser is currently in Libya, studying security conditions, particularly those affecting reconstruction, business travellers and the energy sector. He will also be participating in an AKE assessment of security conditions around oil infrastructure in the country. The completed report will likely be of interest to many. If you or any of your colleagues would like to know more about the assessment or our work in Libya please contact intel@akegroup.com. If you would like to arrange a meeting with AKE in the country please send an email directly toalan.fraser@akegroup.com.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Quarterly Kidnap Report



LONDON – Risk consultancy firm AKE has released its quarterly Kidnap Report, confirming Latin America as the top hotspot for kidnap and ransom incidents. Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia continue to register the highest number of abductions worldwide.

AKE’s kidnap analyst Taryn Evans explains that the pressure being placed on rebel and criminal groups is likely to lead to an increase in opportunistic kidnap in both Colombia and Mexico in the short term. The northern triangle of Central America is likely to see an accompanying rise in the number of abductions as the security situation continues to deteriorate. In Venezuela foreign nationals are at high risk in urban centres, with express kidnappings occurring with the greatest frequency.

“Kidnap groups across the region are rapidly developing into sophisticated networks that are capable of operating transnationally” Evans adds.

The Afghanistan / Pakistan border region is also high risk, with businessmen, tradesmen and construction workers being frequently targeted. Insecurity overall is also set to increase in Iraq following the withdrawal of US troops. This will likely lead to an increase in the number of abductions in 2012.

Africa has witnessed a noticeable deterioration in security conditions over the last three months. In the east, along the Somalia / Kenya border, four foreign nationals were taken, all of whom remain in captivity.

“The deteriorating humanitarian situation in the region, accompanied by an influx of aid workers, is leading to higher rates of abduction, especially around refugee camps”, explains Evans.

Further west in the Sahel region, kidnappings have increased in and around Mali, where five foreign nationals were taken and one shot dead.

“Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is likely to begin teaming up with returning Tuareg fighters in the coming months and try to extend its influence into northern Nigeria.”

Monday, January 16, 2012

Risk Updates


Guatemala
The newly sworn-in president, Otto Perez Molina, has pledged to join Mexico and Honduras in using the army to counter the growing violence in the country associated with organised crime. His announcement came a day after a Congressman was shot dead by unidentified gunmen, reportedly for seeking to switch to Perez's ruling party. Violence in the country is likely to worsen in the short-term, especially in the northeast.

Kosovo
Police clashed with protesters on 14 January close to the Serbia-Kosovo Merdare border crossing during a rally against the import of Serbian goods; clashes were also reported at the Konculj crossing.  Radical self-determination group Vetevendosje had announced its intention to block the border and flow of goods and the northern Kosovo border area will remain volatile in the short term.

Libya
Two people were killed and at least 16 others were wounded on 13 and 14 January during clashes between rival militia groups near the town of Gharyan, south of the capital Tripoli. A Gharyan city council spokesman stated that fighters from the nearby town of Assabia, which he claimed was home to at least 70 known former Gaddafi loyalists, had fired artillery at Gharyan, provoking a response from local militiamen. AKE continues to warn of the risk posed by sporadic clashes throughout the country.

Nigeria  
President Jonathan partially reinstated the fuel subsidy at a reduced rate after late-night talks on 15 January. The unions subsequently urged their members to stay off the streets but maintained that the strike was still in place pending further government talks. The unions will continue trying to extract further concessions, while the government maintains its commitment to deregulating the downstream sector. A period of political brinkmanship may ensue.

Taiwan
After securing a second term in the presidential elections with nearly 52 per cent of the vote, Ma Ying-Jeou will now have to maintain the delicate balance in cross-strait Chinese relations. Voters that support the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who received 46 per cent of the vote, will remain concerned over Taiwan’s growing dependence on the mainland.

Qatar
Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani stated on 14 January that he was in favour of Arab nations intervening in Syria. The statement came during an interview with US broadcaster CBS. Al-Thani stated that in order to stop the killing, some Arab troops should be deployed to the country. The statement was the first of its kind from any Arab leader, and is unlikely to have the backing of the majority of Arab states, in the short-term at least.

Yemen
Security officials stated on 15 January that dozens of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) militants had taken control of the town of Radda in al-Baydah province, south east of the capital Sanaa on 15 January. The development marks the first time AQAP-linked militants have been able to expand their control outside southern Abyan province.

Iraq Weekly Roundup, 16 January 2012


Summary
The number of attacks taking place in Iraq actually fell last week. Nonetheless, the associated number of casualties was still much higher than average. At least 100 people were killed and 261 injured in nationwide incidents, several of which targeted Shi’ah pilgrims gathering to commemorate Arba’een. Violence was concentrated in the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk in the north, as well as Ramadi and Ba’qubah in the central provinces.

Bombings
A total of 30 non-suicide bomb attacks left 29 people dead and 97 injured. A further 53 people were killed and 130 injured in a suicide bombing targeting Shi’ah pilgrims in Basrah on 14 January, while three more suicide bombings in the capital and north of the country left nine people dead and 32 injured.

Other Tactics
A lower than normal number of small arms fire attacks left six people dead and two injured. There was only one indirect fire attack (rockets and mortars) recorded but it left no casualties. There were no kidnap incidents reported.

Energy Sector Attack
One of the most noteworthy bombings of the week targeted the equipment of Angolan energy company Sonangol. No one was injured in the attack but equipment was damaged and the incident serves as a reminder that oil and gas firms remain an attractive target for militants in the country.

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Libya Update, 13 January 2012

SummaryA French ex-serviceman was shot dead in his apartment in Tripoli on 8 January by an unidentified assailant; further details on the incident remain unclear. Tripoli in general is assessed to be safe, although there is an ongoing risk of further sporadic clashes. A government committee assigned to help integrate former rebel fighters back into civilian life is to be allocated an initial budget of US$8bln. A senior National Oil Corporation (NOC) official stated on 12 January that oil exports are set to rise to 800,000 bpd in January 2012. Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has reportedly accepted in principle a request by the National Transitional Council (NTC) to try Saif al-Islam Gaddafi in the country, and Foreign Minister Ashour Bin Khayal stated that Libya has received around US$20bln of funds frozen following the imposition of UN sanctions.ProjectionsTripoli will remain stable although there is a risk of further sporadic clashes involving different militia groups, which maintain a presence in some outlying areas of the city. The process of integrating militia groups into the national army will continue, although it may be some time before an NTC-controlled body is in control of the entire city.

The risk of clashes in other major cities along the Mediterranean coast will also remain. Those cities that were liberated by outside forces, including Sirte, Bani Walid, Bin Jawad and Brega, are more at risk of inter-factional tensions. Benghazi will also remain calm and there is less risk of inter-factional clashes than in other major cities.

The NTC will continue the process of integrating former rebel fighters into national security forces and wider society. Further investment in this area is likely given the size of the challenge.
TripoliOn 8 January a French ex-serviceman was shot dead in his apartment by an unidentified assailant. The man, who had retired from the military, was reportedly working in Libya, although further details surrounding the incident were unclear. The killing was an isolated incident and there is no evidence that Western personnel operating in the city could become targets.

The security situation in Tripoli remains stable. AKE sources on the ground have previously highlighted the reduced presence of militia groups on the streets and a significant reduction in the number of checkpoints in the city over the last month. The majority of the armed security presence in the city is ostensibly operating under the national army umbrella. Most of those fighters who make up the national army in the city previously belonged to militia brigades from Tripoli; however, it also includes fighters from Benghazi and Misrata. The police presence in the city remains low, and the visible presence appears at times to be limited to traffic direction. However, the presence is likely to increase over the coming months as the city continues to return to normal.

The International Airport remains under the control of Zintan militiamen, and there are reported to be other militia groups present in outlying areas of the city. The transition towards a unified centrally-controlled security force in the capital has made significant progress in recent months, although further steps are required to create a lasting solution, with militia groups remaining in control of significant areas of territory. AKE sources on the ground assess that the risk of sporadic clashes involving militia groups remains, as does the potential for revenge operations by militiamen targeting alleged Gaddafi loyalists.
Rebel FightersA government committee, the Warriors Affairs Committee, will be assigned to help integrate former rebel fighters back into civilian life and will be allocated an initial budget of US$8bln, according to the head of the new committee, Moustafa al-Sagizli. He also stated that each government ministry will be allocating around US$2bln to fund volunteers to travel abroad for language and computer training, and to give micro-credit loans to help find work and start new businesses.

AKE has long highlighted that the greatest challenge facing the NTC will be reintegrating back into society the tens of thousands of rebel fighters who liberated the country from the regime of Muammar Gaddafi. The latest statement demonstrates that the interim regime is aware of the size of the challenge; however, militiamen who continue to occupy a number of major cities and are providing security to the southern oilfields will be reluctant to hand over their arms in return for promises of investment, and will require tangible benefits.
Oil exportsA senior National Oil Corporation (NOC) official stated on 12 January that oil exports are set to rise to 800,000 bpd in January 2012. The NOC expects to deliver between 40 and 45 cargoes of crude in January. In December 2011 the NOC agreed to sell cargoes to trading houses Glencore, Vitol, Gunvor and Trafigura, breaking with the tradition of allowing oil majors exclusive access to its export cargoes. However, oil majors will still export the vast majority of Libyan crude.

The source also stated that power generation was holding back the return to production of a number of fields in the south of the country, and that once the power problem was solved, production would be able to return to pre-conflict levels.
Saif al Islam TrialMinister of Justice Ali Humaida Ashour stated on 12 January that the ICC had accepted in principle the request by Libyan authorities to try Saif al-Islam Gaddafi in the country and that a final decision would be made within weeks.

Ashour also stated that Saif al-Islam would be tried on charges of mismanagement of public funds, homicide and rape, and if convicted he could face the death penalty. Human Rights Watch has repeatedly called for Saif al-Islam to be given access to a lawyer and Ashour confirmed that Saif would be allowed to hire a lawyer of his choosing.
Political SectionLibya officially lifted trade and economic sanctions that were imposed on Switzerland and Lebanon by the former regime. The move is expected to encourage business between the countries, particularly in the energy sector and in post-war reconstruction.

Foreign Minister Ashour Bin Khayal stated on 10 January that Libya has received around US$20bln in assets that were held overseas by the regime of Muammar Gaddafi and were frozen following the imposition of sanctions by the international community. An estimated US$150bln was frozen during the conflict and most of that made available to the new regime has come from the US, France and a number of other European states. Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed Abdul Aziz stated that a number of other countries, including Italy, Japan, Spain, France, Britain and the US are continuing to work on the unfreezing of blocked assets, which will be used to invest heavily in the rebuilding process, particularly in the areas of infrastructure, construction and the oil and gas sector.



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Source: AKE, INTAKE 

Friday, January 13, 2012

World Risk Updates, 09 January 2012


China – Philippines
The Philippines accused China of violating the 2002 ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea after Chinese vessels were spotted inside the Philippine territory in the Spratly Islands, an area also claimed as part of Chinese territory.
Germany
Germany’s President Christian Wulff continues to come under increasing pressure following allegations of a loan scandal. The President has so far rejected calls for his resignation but his political support could be waning as opposition leaders indicate they are willing to find a consensus candidate. His resignation could spark a crisis for Merkel’s coalition government as it struggles to maintain domestic support for its response to the Eurozone crisis.
Iran
Official reports stated that an additional major uranium enrichment facility will be established in a protected underground site near Qom. Enrichment and underground nuclear facilities are nothing new in Iran but the dispersal of such facilities in more than one well-defended site will make any military response by foreign countries much more difficult, thus strengthening Iran’s position on the nuclear issue.
Nigeria
Unknown gunmen killed at least 21 people, reportedly southern Christian worshippers, on 6 January in Adamawa state. Only a few days after Boko Haram’s threat for all Christians to leave the north expired, informal groups seem to be using publicly voiced sectarianism to conduct attacks on religious communities. The prospect of Christian groups arming themselves in the face of an ineffective state security response cannot be discounted.  
Peru-Venezuela
Petroperu has announced that it will invest in new project in the Orinoco belt. Although new President Ollanta Humala has been keen to downplay his links to President Chavez, a former mentor, the new ties, which represent a potentially hazardous investment, underline the ideological as opposed to pragmatic bonds between the two.
Philippines
More than 3 million Catholic worshippers marched through Manila on 9 January in an annual procession, despite a warning from President Benigno Aquino III that Abu Sayyaf (ASG) may try and target the marchers. Around 15,000 policemen have been deployed around the capital, amid the threat that there may be a growing likelihood that terrorists are looking further north to hit Manila.
Yemen
Cabinet proposed a draft immunity law protecting President Ali Abdullah Saleh, his family and aides from prosecution. It is still to be approved in parliament but many Yemenis are angry following extensive violence at the hands of the security forces, blamed on Saleh and members of his family. The UN also criticised the proposal as a violation of international law.
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Source: AKE

Iraq Weekly Roundup, 9 January 2012

Summary
Levels of violence rose in Iraq last week. At least 107 people were killed and 300 injured in nationwide incidents. A total of 42 bomb attacks left 45 people dead and 192 injured. An additional suicide bombing targeting Shi’ah pilgrims in Dhi Qar province killed 44 more people and injured over 80 more. A slight rise in the number of small arms fire attacks left 16 people dead and 10 injured. Indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) left 17 people injured, all in Baghdad.

Current Trends
Much of the violence was concentrated in the centre of the country. Security measures are currently being heightened as the country prepares to mark the Shi’ah holy period of Arba’een. The event culminates on 13-14 January and will see numerous Shi’ah pilgrims converge on mosques and shrines, particularly in Karbala. Otherwise, Mosul saw numerous incidents while attacks were dispersed through the province of Ta’mim. Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) territory also saw a number of violent incidents, but they were largely related to low-level criminality and local disputes rather than politics or terrorism.

Abductions
Four people were kidnapped over the course of the week, including a Turkmen contractor who managed to escape within 24 hours of his abduction. Another kidnap victim, held for an unspecific period of time was also rescued during an operation in Diyala province. AKE will be releasing its quarterly kidnap report in the coming days.



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Source: AKE