Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Iraq Security Weekly roundup

  Islamist militants led by the Islamic State (IS) continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region.


Violence remains particularly concentrated in urban parts of Anbar, Salah ad-Din, Ninawa, western Diyala, south-western Ta'mim and northern Babil provinces. Terrorist attacks also continue to take place throughout Baghdad.


Air strikes continue to target militant positions in sparsely populated areas in the west of Anbar and Ninawa provinces near the border with Syria.


Last week saw a handful of attacks in the south of the country, including what appears to have been sectarian killings at a Sunni mosque in Basrah, as well as two small bombings in the city of Najaf, a major centre for the Shi'ah community. IS militants continue to try and provoke a backlash from the Shi'ah community by attacking religious interests.


A total of 34 non-suicide bomb attacks left 30 people dead and 111 injured countrywide. As Ramadan drew to a close three additional suicide bombings left 101 people dead and 53 injured.


Small arms attacks left eight people dead and eight injured, although it is likely that many more members of the security forces were shot during clashes with militants. The reporting climate is very poor amid the violence which makes it difficult to cross reference and verify all reports.


Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 46 people dead and 67 injured.


At least eight people were reportedly abducted. Some are likely to be murdered rather than held for a ransom. At least 41 bodies were also recovered by the authorities in different parts of the central region.


As the fighting rages on, the heavily divided parliament managed to appoint a new president. The Kurd Fouad Massoum faces a very difficult challenge in trying to help form a unity government in Baghdad. With Nuri al-Maliki intent on retaining his position as prime minister, with numerous Sunni and Kurdish politicians staunchly opposed to his candidacy, the government-formation process will remain very slow, which will hinder any efforts at resolving the current violence in the country.


Amid the protracted fighting AKE affirmed the security risk rating for Iraq last week at 45 (Highly Dangerous Business Environment). AKE also affirmed the security risk rating for KRG territory at 19 (Elevated Risk). 



_____________________

Source: AKE GROUP.


Monday, July 21, 2014

Iraq remains in Crisis, New Security Weekly Roundup

 Islamist militants led by the Islamic State (IS) continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region.

A total of 48 non-suicide bomb attacks left 53 people dead and 220 injured last week - an increase from recent weeks.

Three additional suicide bombings left seven people dead and 15 injured.

Small arms attacks left 14 people dead and 118 injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants.

Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 46 people dead and 142 injured.

The bodies of at least 26 people were also recovered abandoned in various parts of the central region.

Last week's summary:
  • Total number of violent incidents: 625 (slight rise from previous week)
  • Total fatalities (not including militants): 146 (decrease from previous week)
  • Total injured (not including militants): 495
  • Average weekly number of violent incidents: 57 (2012) and 98 (2013)
  • Average weekly fatalities: 60 (2012) and 140 (2013)

______________________
Source: AKE GROUP.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Iraq Security Weekly Roundup

Islamist militants led by the Islamic State (IS) continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region.

The Iraqi government warned the UN that the militants had seized a chemical weapons facility north-west of Baghdad as well as nuclear material in Mosul, although various commentators reported that the militants would be unable to weaponise the material to any major extent and that it did not pose a major concern – at least not in comparison to the overall capabilities and threat posed by the IS in its existing form.

Amid the ongoing crisis the Iraqi parliament convened on 13 July but failed to appoint key members of government and subsequently adjourned within minutes of meeting. The next session will take place on 15 July.

The scope for cross-party agreement will remain low, with sharply deteriorating relations between Nuri al-Maliki and his allies and the Kurdish regional authorities in the north. Last week Nuri al-Maliki accused Erbil of harbouring terrorists while the Kurdish authorities seized control of two major oilfields near Kirkuk. While they aim to protect the assets the move is nonetheless provocative and will harm relations with the federal authorities.

With political relations so frayed the authorities will continue to seek a military solution to the insurgency in the central and northern provinces but without extensive negotiations, inclusion of key community figures and meaningful efforts to form an inclusive government the military solution will not pacify or stabilise the country.

As the fighting continues concerns have been raised over the stability of routes connecting Baghdad with the south of the country via Babil province. Roads around Jurf as-Sakhr are likely to be a significant battleground, the outcome of which will affect various aspects of life in the capital – including any evacuation plans which organisations in the city currently have in place.

Last week a total of 36 non-suicide bomb attacks left 12 people dead and 41 injured. Three additional suicide bombings left 36 people dead and 38 injured.

Small arms attacks left 38 people dead and 44 injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants. Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 33 people dead and 87 injured.

At least 66 people were reportedly murdered, with their bodies found abandoned. Thirteen people were also reportedly abducted in the centre of the country.

Source:AKE

Monday, July 7, 2014

##Iraq remains in crisis, Another weekly roundup with analysis

Islamist fighters, such as those from the Islamic State (IS), continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region.

Clashes between the different sides accounted for the bulk of violence. Otherwise a total of 19 non-suicide bomb attacks left 10 people dead and 48 injured. Four additional suicide bombings left 24 people dead and 57 injured. Small arms attacks left seven people dead and six injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants. Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 49 people dead and 50 injured.

Militants continue to abduct large numbers of people in territory they control, although they may not be held for a ransom. They may simply be executed instead; Islamist militants are rumoured to be killing opponents and ethnic minorities in areas under their control. Otherwise, a number of Turkish hostages were released from captivity but several more Turkish nationals seized from the consulate in Mosul remain in captivity.

The Islamists continue to try and blow up Shi'ah religious buildings, with several destroyed in the Mosul area last week. The militants are also still highly intent on attacking the four revered Shi'ah shrines (in Karbala, Samarra, Najaf and Kadhimiyah) with mortars landing dangerously close to the Askari mosque in Samarra last week. A suicide attack also reportedly hit the Kadhimiyah area earlier on 7 July. A direct hit on one of these shrines would likely prompt a major backlash from the Shi'ah community, potentially sparking a resurgence in sectarian bloodshed. Already conditions have worsened significantly. The UN announced last week that 2,417 people were killed in June, making it one of the bloodiest months since the 2006-2007 period.

In the south of the country followers of radical Shi'ah cleric Mahmoud al-Hassan al-Sharki (who oppose the government and the legitimacy of revered Shi'ah leader Ayotollah Ali al-Sistani) engaged in clashes with the security forces around Karbala and Qadissiyah.

In the north of the country the Kurdish regional authorities also called for a referendum on whether or not the area should become an independent state. For now the area is in a position of relatively strength in comparison to the rest of Iraq but an independent Iraqi Kurdistan will face a geopolitical minefield in what remains a notorious volatile near-neighbourhood.


___________________
Source: AKE

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Iraq in Crisis, Iraq Security weekly report



  • Total number of violent incidents recorded last week: 557 (slight decrease from previous week)
  • Average weekly number of violent incidents during previous years: 98 (2013) and 57 (2012)
  • Total fatalities last week (not including militants): approx. 314 (increase from previous week)
  • Average weekly fatalities during previous years: 140 (2013 and 60 (2012)
  • Total injured last week (not including militants): 352

Violence remains concentrated in urban parts of Anbar, Salah ad-Din, Diyala, Ninawa, Babil and Ta'mim province, as well as along the Syrian border. Baghdad and Kirkuk also continue to suffer sporadic terrorist attacks as the terrorists will want to maintain pressure on the federal and Kurdish authorities.

The southern region and northern Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) territory remain relatively quiet but they are nonetheless still at risk of terrorist violence. With support, now from Israel, for an independent Kurdish state, the borders of Iraq appear increasingly fragile, but any re-drawing of the map is unlikely to be easy, straightforward or peaceful.

Last week a total of 21 non-suicide bomb attacks left 10 people dead and 21 injured countrywide. Four additional suicide bombings left 40 people dead and 116 injured, a rise from recent weeks. Suicide bombings may become particularly common for the duration of Ramadan due to last until around 28 July.

Small arms attacks left 42 people dead and 57 injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants. Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 58 people dead and 158 injured (a notable rise). Militants appear to be using the tactic to target military facilities and intimidate populations in settlements which have not fallen under their control.



---------------
Source: AKE