Monday, July 7, 2014

##Iraq remains in crisis, Another weekly roundup with analysis

Islamist fighters, such as those from the Islamic State (IS), continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region.

Clashes between the different sides accounted for the bulk of violence. Otherwise a total of 19 non-suicide bomb attacks left 10 people dead and 48 injured. Four additional suicide bombings left 24 people dead and 57 injured. Small arms attacks left seven people dead and six injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants. Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 49 people dead and 50 injured.

Militants continue to abduct large numbers of people in territory they control, although they may not be held for a ransom. They may simply be executed instead; Islamist militants are rumoured to be killing opponents and ethnic minorities in areas under their control. Otherwise, a number of Turkish hostages were released from captivity but several more Turkish nationals seized from the consulate in Mosul remain in captivity.

The Islamists continue to try and blow up Shi'ah religious buildings, with several destroyed in the Mosul area last week. The militants are also still highly intent on attacking the four revered Shi'ah shrines (in Karbala, Samarra, Najaf and Kadhimiyah) with mortars landing dangerously close to the Askari mosque in Samarra last week. A suicide attack also reportedly hit the Kadhimiyah area earlier on 7 July. A direct hit on one of these shrines would likely prompt a major backlash from the Shi'ah community, potentially sparking a resurgence in sectarian bloodshed. Already conditions have worsened significantly. The UN announced last week that 2,417 people were killed in June, making it one of the bloodiest months since the 2006-2007 period.

In the south of the country followers of radical Shi'ah cleric Mahmoud al-Hassan al-Sharki (who oppose the government and the legitimacy of revered Shi'ah leader Ayotollah Ali al-Sistani) engaged in clashes with the security forces around Karbala and Qadissiyah.

In the north of the country the Kurdish regional authorities also called for a referendum on whether or not the area should become an independent state. For now the area is in a position of relatively strength in comparison to the rest of Iraq but an independent Iraqi Kurdistan will face a geopolitical minefield in what remains a notorious volatile near-neighbourhood.


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Source: AKE

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