Worldwide Kidnap Report

LONDON Feb 17 (Reuters) - Kidnap and ransom trends are in constant flux, with Somali piracy and Mexican kidnapping on the up, while hostage-taking in Colombia and Iraq is in decline.

Below is an overview of global kidnap trends with estimates of the numbers of foreigners taken captive every month, compiled largely with information from risk consultancy AKE's quarterly kidnap and ransom report.

INDIAN OCEAN -- 95 PER MONTH

Somali pirates hijacking merchant ships in the Indian Ocean frequently take more foreigners hostage in a single month than all other kidnappers in the world combined. Experts estimate several hundred Somalis head out in small boats and increasingly on larger captured motherships, boarding vessels and sailing them to pirate havens. At any given time, the pirates are estimated to hold up to 700 hostages, mainly aboard their ships in worsening conditions. Ransoms have risen swiftly over the last year, with the record payment said to be $9 million for a Korean tanker late last year. The average settlement per ship is estimated to be $3-4 million, with ships usually held for more than 100 days. Shippers warn that despite international naval patrols, the problem is worsening to the extent ships may be forced to take a longer route around Africa, driving up costs.

MEXICO -- 20 PER MONTH

Kidnapping in Mexico is rising swiftly. Most attacks target migrant workers from elsewhere in Central and Latin America. These range from "express kidnappings", in which the victim is taken to an ATM and forced to pay their own ransom, to abductions lasting up to about 60 days. Abductions of Mexicans are on the rise, but limited reporting makes estimating the numbers difficult. So far, Western nationals have not tended to be targeted. The upper limit for a payout has reportedly been $30 million.

GULF OF GUINEA -- 5 PER MONTH

While the dangers of piracy and attacks on shipping and oil platforms in the Gulf of Guinea pale in comparison to those in the Indian Ocean, the threat is seen growing particularly ahead of Nigeria's April 2011 elections. Attacks tend to be more violent than those from Somali pirates and the danger to crew higher. The average time in captivity is less than 30 days and ransoms vary from $10,000-$2 million.

NIGERIA -- 1-2 PER MONTH

Kidnapping of foreigners and locals continues to be a problem in Nigeria, particularly in the Niger Delta with the threat from both militants and armed gangs. Ransoms for foreign nationals range from $28,000-$204,000, with ransom payments for Nigerians generally less than $100,000. Time spent in captivity is varied, with the longest period some 465 days.

SUDAN -- 1 PER MONTH

Kidnapping, particularly of aid staff in Sudan's Darfur region, is seen on the increase and is restricting relief operations. Charity workers, United Nations staff and African Union peacekeepers have all been targeted. The average time spent in captivity is 100 days. There is insufficient data to estimate average ransom payments for foreign nationals. Sudanese command ransoms of less than $100,000.

AFGHANISTAN -- 1-2 PER MONTH

The risk of kidnap of foreigners, particularly aid staff, reduces relief work in Afghanistan. A particularly high proportion of kidnaps there ended in violent deaths, either through execution or during special forces rescue missions. Foreigners kidnapped and released alive can wait up to 300 days, with ransoms ranging from $300,000-$750,000. Some 5-10 Afghans are taken hostage each week with ransoms of less than $100,000.

SAHEL -- 1 PER MONTH

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) appears to have stepped up efforts to kidnap foreigners in North Africa's Sahel region, while local tribes have also used this as a revenue stream. Experts estimate kidnapping could have given $65 million to AQIM since 2005, the majority of its revenue stream. French forces have taken an increasingly aggressive approach with mixed results as they launch military rescue missions.

PAKISTAN -- 1 PER MONTH

Both militant groups and criminal gangs kidnap Pakistanis and occasionally foreigners. Pakistanis are generally held for about 30 days for ransoms of about $50,000, while foreigners tend to be held for longer with the record being 500 days.

REST OF AFRICA

Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia each see on average slightly less than one foreign national kidnapped a month. In Congo, risks are seen highest in the east, with extractive industry staff and aid workers most at risk. The number of foreigners kidnapped in Somalia is low as so few operate there, but ransoms can be as high as $3 million and victims held for prolonged periods. There are fears kidnapped foreigners might be sold to al Qaeda-linked Islamist groups who might kill them for propaganda value or try to trade them for prisoner exchange.

MIDDLE EAST

Kidnappings of both foreigners and local Iraqis soared in the aftermath of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion but have since fallen sharply. Yemen is now seen as the Middle Eastern country in which foreigners are most at risk of kidnap.

ASIA

Outside Pakistan and Afghanistan, the greatest danger of kidnap in Asia is seen in the Philippines. Islamist militants have targeted wealthy Chinese-Filipino businessmen and students.

LATIN AMERICA

Kidnapping in Colombia has fallen sharply due to disarray amongst militant groups, public anger at the tactic and better coordination by security forces. Kidnapping is seen on the increase in Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador.

EUROPE

The former Soviet Union is seen as having the highest risk of kidnap for foreigners, while a bad harvest has seen an increasing trend of farmers being kidnapped in an attempt to gain control of their grain stores. Short duration "tiger kidnaps" are becoming increasingly common in Western Europe due to the economic crisis, particularly in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. (Editing by Janet Lawrence)

Quarterly Kidnap Report

LONDON – Risk consultancy firm AKE has released its quarterly Kidnap Report, confirming Latin America as the top hotspot for kidnap and ransom incidents. Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia continue to register the highest number of abductions worldwide.

AKE’s kidnap analyst Taryn Evans explains that the pressure being placed on rebel and criminal groups is likely to lead to an increase in opportunistic kidnap in both Colombia and Mexico in the short term. The northern triangle of Central America is likely to see an accompanying rise in the number of abductions as the security situation continues to deteriorate. In Venezuela foreign nationals are at high risk in urban centres, with express kidnappings occurring with the greatest frequency.

“Kidnap groups across the region are rapidly developing into sophisticated networks that are capable of operating transnationally” Evans adds.

The Afghanistan / Pakistan border region is also high risk, with businessmen, tradesmen and construction workers being frequently targeted. Insecurity overall is also set to increase in Iraq following the withdrawal of US troops. This will likely lead to an increase in the number of abductions in 2012.

Africa has witnessed a noticeable deterioration in security conditions over the last three months. In the east, along the Somalia / Kenya border, four foreign nationals were taken, all of whom remain in captivity.

“The deteriorating humanitarian situation in the region, accompanied by an influx of aid workers, is leading to higher rates of abduction, especially around refugee camps”, explains Evans.

Further west in the Sahel region, kidnappings have increased in and around Mali, where five foreign nationals were taken and one shot dead.

“Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is likely to begin teaming up with returning Tuareg fighters in the coming months and try to extend its influence into northern Nigeria.”

Weekly Security Update for 28th December 2011

SummaryLevels of violence rose in Iraq over the past week, with dozens of people killed and injured in a series of attacks in Baghdad on 22 December. Meanwhile, the political crisis between senior politicians also endures, posing a significant risk to overall national stability and raising the possibility of major internal strife over the course of the coming year.

StatisticsIn total, at least 105 people were killed and 253 injured in nationwide violence last week, which was concentrated in the capital, as well as the northern cities of Kirkuk and Mosul. At least 48 separate bomb attacks left 82 people dead and 228 injured. Small arms fire attacks left 14 people dead and 13 injured.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months. Note the notable rise in the number of incidents reported last week.

Kidnap RiskLast week the US authorities issued a statement warning of the imminent risk of kidnap posed to American nationals. Evidently kidnap remains a major risk in the country and foreign personnel are advised not to become complacent. Iraqis continue to be abducted on a regular basis. The Iraqi authorities managed to free two kidnap victims in separate incidents in the north and centre of the country last week and dozens more are likely to be taken over the coming months. 

Baghdad ViolenceThere were several attacks over the course of 22 December in Baghdad, which left up to 70 people dead and almost 200 injured. The bombings, which were later claimed by al-Qaeda in Iraq took place in the districts of Abu Dshir, Adhimiyah, Allawi, Amil, Bayaa, Dourah, Ghazaliyah, Harthiyah, Jihad, Karradah, Mansour, New Baghdad, Qaddisiyah, Qahirah, Sha’ab, Shu’lah, Shurtah and Yarmouk as well as along Abu Nawas street, Maghrib street and Mohammed al-Qassim highway. Targets included a garage, school, hospital and the integrity commission office in Karradah, as well as gatherings of civilians, targeted on an indiscriminate basis.

Warning Signs Previous reports indicated that the authorities were expecting another mass-casualty terrorist attack and the country was indeed statistically overdue. What needs to be determined now is whether or not this latest spate of attacks, following the US military departure, signals a change in the tempo of violence. Organisations should review their security measures in light of the potential for a deterioration in conditions and be prepared for the frequency of attacks to increase from now on. Even organisations working in normally well patrolled districts such as Karradah, Jadriyah and even the International/Green Zone are reminded that they are not immune from risk. Indeed, it is precisely these districts which should be regarded as possible targets, not least because of their high profile and political weight.


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Source: AKE, BBC, AFP, NYTIMES, MOH, MOI, MOD