Iraq Security Weekly Roundup, week 5

Islamist militants led by the Islamic State (IS) organisation continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region.

Violence remains most pronounced in Anbar, Salah ad-Din and Ninawa provinces. Conditions have eased in Babil and Diyala provinces although incidents continue to take place on a regular basis in both.

Baghdad also continues to see daily attacks, although last week the authorities relaxed the night-time curfew imposed on the city since 2004.

Last week a total of 24 non-suicide bomb attacks left 29 people dead and 69 injured. Five additional suicide bombings left 32 people dead and 84 injured.

Small arms attacks left 29 people dead and 39 injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants.

Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 20 people dead and 68 injured, especially around Fallujah.

At least 128 people were publicly executed by militants or murdered only to have their bodies later recovered by the authorities.

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Source: AKE 

Iraq Security Weekly Roundup

 Islamist militants led by the IS continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region but with the increased assistance being provided by the US military the militants are likely to lose territory in the short term in areas between Mosul and Erbil.

Otherwise fighting remains concentrated in areas with large Sunni populations, particularly the northern and central provinces.

Significant flashpoints include a large stretch of Ninawa province, areas south and west of Kirkuk, all of urban Anbar province (and numerous rural areas in the west of the province around the Syrian border), the Jurf as-Sakhr area of Babil province and many parts of Diyala and Salah ad-Din provinces. Baghdad also continues to see sporadic violence.

The southern region remains mostly quiet. The Kurdish administered north, while understandably rattled by IS activities around its peripheries, saw no major incidents of violence last week, although a significant influx of refugees will continue to put pressure on the authorities.

Last week a total of 39 non-suicide bomb attacks left 14 people dead and 77 injured countrywide. There were no additional suicide bombings reported which is statistically unusual.

Such a lull has occurred over recent years, normally either ahead of a significant co-ordinated terrorist attack involving a number of suicide bombers, or at a time when counter-insurgency operations intensify. The latter has occurred over recent days which may be the reason for the brief interruption in suicide attacks. Nonetheless, further suicide bombings, including co-ordinated potentially mass-casualty attacks, should be anticipated.

Small arms attacks left 11 people dead and four injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants. However, the true number of dead in the military operations is extremely difficult to ascertain.

At least 14 bodies were recovered abandoned in different parts of the central region (including in Baghdad).

Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 23 people dead and 32 injured according to open sources, but some of the figures come from areas under militant control. The true casualty figures in these areas are only likely to be verified following a cessation of hostilities and with the conducting of an intense social survey on the ground, but such a development is likely a long way away.

Please note: 

*It is very difficult to ascertain the number of violent incidents and casualties in areas contested by Islamic State (IS) militants and the true figure is likely to be significantly higher.

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Source: AKE GROUP

Iraq Political Report

Politically the situation is changing rapidly at the time of writing, with the Da'wah party nominating Haidar al-Amadi as its candidate for prime minister while supporters of Nuri al-Maliki are contesting the appointment. The government-formation process is likely to remain fractious and difficult.

On 7 August AKE also raised the security risk rating for Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) territory following the expansion of IS activities on the borders of the semi-autonomous region.

The Iraq countrywide security risk rating was recently affirmed at 45 (Highly Dangerous Business Environment). KRG territory is now rated at 20 (Elevated Risk) up from 19. As a comparison, the United Kingdom is rated at 7 (Stable) and Iraq's neighbour Syria is rated at 56 (Extreme Security Risks).

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Source: AKE GROUP

Iraq Security Weekly Roundup

Islamist militants led by the Islamic State (IS) continue to battle with the federal and Kurdish security forces in several parts of the central and northern region.

The Iraqi government warned the UN that the militants had seized a chemical weapons facility north-west of Baghdad as well as nuclear material in Mosul, although various commentators reported that the militants would be unable to weaponise the material to any major extent and that it did not pose a major concern – at least not in comparison to the overall capabilities and threat posed by the IS in its existing form.

Amid the ongoing crisis the Iraqi parliament convened on 13 July but failed to appoint key members of government and subsequently adjourned within minutes of meeting. The next session will take place on 15 July.

The scope for cross-party agreement will remain low, with sharply deteriorating relations between Nuri al-Maliki and his allies and the Kurdish regional authorities in the north. Last week Nuri al-Maliki accused Erbil of harbouring terrorists while the Kurdish authorities seized control of two major oilfields near Kirkuk. While they aim to protect the assets the move is nonetheless provocative and will harm relations with the federal authorities.

With political relations so frayed the authorities will continue to seek a military solution to the insurgency in the central and northern provinces but without extensive negotiations, inclusion of key community figures and meaningful efforts to form an inclusive government the military solution will not pacify or stabilise the country.

As the fighting continues concerns have been raised over the stability of routes connecting Baghdad with the south of the country via Babil province. Roads around Jurf as-Sakhr are likely to be a significant battleground, the outcome of which will affect various aspects of life in the capital – including any evacuation plans which organisations in the city currently have in place.

Last week a total of 36 non-suicide bomb attacks left 12 people dead and 41 injured. Three additional suicide bombings left 36 people dead and 38 injured.

Small arms attacks left 38 people dead and 44 injured, including members of the security forces shot during clashes with militants. Indirect fire incidents (rockets, mortars and military artillery shelling) left 33 people dead and 87 injured.

At least 66 people were reportedly murdered, with their bodies found abandoned. Thirteen people were also reportedly abducted in the centre of the country.

Source:AKE

#Iraq #Security weekly roundup

Levels of violence fell in Iraq last week but conditions remain highly hostile nonetheless. At least 118 people were killed and 345 injured in nationwide incidents.

A total of 59 bomb attacks, including two suicide bombings, left 58 people dead and 188 injured. Small arms attacks left 35 people dead and 72 injured.

Indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) left 19 people dead and 85 injured. The security forces also continue to clash with Islamist militants, mainly around urban parts of Anbar province, the border with Syria and sporadically in parts of Babil, Diyala, Ninawa, Salah ad-Din and Ta'mim provinces.

The oil-rich south of the country was quiet last week although the security forces remain on alert for potential attacks. Militants are reportedly intent on infiltrating the area from Anbar province via the desert.

The Kurdish governed autonomous territory in the north of the country was also quiet last week although militant attacks on interests, particularly the Kurdish security forces, remain a possibility.

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Source: AKE