Worlwide Risk Report

Bahrain
Seven policemen were wounded when an improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated at a protest in the village of Eker, near the capital Manama on 10 April. Levels of violence have gradually escalated over recent months, and are likely to raise questions over the efficacy of continuing with the Bahrain Grand Prix, due to take place in April.

Chile
A bomb exploded outside a Banco de Estado branch on Jose Pedro Alessandri avenue in Santiago’s Macul district on 9 April. The device was rudimentary and caused only superficial damage; this means of attack coupled with the anarchist pamphlets found nearby suggest a small, anarchist group was responsible. The incident follows a spate of attacks against bank branches in February.

Colombia
The head of the FARC denied that the group is weakening, and launched several attacks on military targets over the weekend to reinforce the point. A bomb attack in Putumayo and an ambush in the Choco killed up to nine troops. Attacks on the military are likely to intensify as the FARC concentrates its efforts on government targets and regional groups articulate their dissatisfaction with central committee policies.

Kosovo
A bomb detonated in the northern town of Mitrovica killed an ethnic Albanian man and injured his family members on 8 April. Mitrovica is a flashpoint for inter-ethnic violence between Albanians and Serbs, and tensions are likely to increase in the run-up to local and general elections in Serbia on 6 May.

Malawi
Following the death of President Bingu wa Mutharika on 5 April, former Vice-President Joyce Banda was sworn in as President of Malawi on 7 April. One of Mutharika’s fiercest critics, she publicly appealed for calm. However, Banda has already sacked controversial police chief Peter Mukhito, an ally of the late president, suggesting her rule will mark a welcome change for the country and end its international isolation.

Mali
Ousted President Toure formally resigned as part of an ECOWAS-sponsored deal to restore civilian order announced on 6 April. Under the deal, Diouncounda Traore, who is the president of the National Assembly, will be appointed as the interim president of Mali with a mission to organise elections within 40 days. Sanctions were lifted immediately, but instability is likely in the immediate run-up to the elections.

Nigeria
An Easter Sunday car bombing in Kaduna killed 38 people and injured many others. The vehicle exploded on a busy street in the centre of the town, and reports suggest that it was heading towards a church. In Jos, a bomb exploded the same day, injuring several people. No one has taken responsibility for the attacks yet, but Boko Haram warned of attacks over Easter.
Papua New Guinea
Papua New Guinea's parliament voted on 5 April to delay mid-year national elections by six months, prolonging a political crisis in the resource-rich South Pacific nation and prompting Australia to ask for the decision to be reviewed. Parliament was told electoral rolls were not up-to-date and police not ready to provide enough security for the polls, which are held every five years and scheduled for June.

Yemen
At least 57 people were killed during clashes on 10 April, that were sparked when suspected Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)-linked Ansar al-Sharia militants attacked a military base near the southern city of Loder, in Abyan province. The group has been highly active in Abyan province since the beginning of the uprising in 2011, and have intensified operations since the election of Saleh's former deputy as interim leader.

____________________________________________
Source: AKEINTAKE, AKE

World Risk Updates

Bahrain

Security forces dispersed several hundred Shia demonstrators near the capital Manama on 18 December. The demonstrators gathered near a roundabout on the Budaiya highway for the fourth day in a row, until police stormed the area forcing them out. Tensions continue to simmer in Bahrain and are unlikely to dissipate until the opposition feel that they are being listened to by the government.

Côte d’Ivoire

Following a local dispute, at least six people were killed by the government's new army, the Republican Forces of Côte d’Ivoire, after armed youths raided military barracks on 17 December in Vavoua in the west. The undisciplined and fragile nature of the country's armed forces - comprised of former warring factions - has sparked regular clashes since the end of post-election hostilties. Rebuilding the security apparatus is President Ouattara's biggest challenge.

DRC

After the Supreme Court confirmed Kabila's re-election, opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi called for the DRC armed forces to stop obeying Kabila. Kabila is due to be sworn in on 20 December, but Tshisekedi has declared himself president. Tshisekedi has departed from conciliatory calls for peaceful protest and is stepping on dangerous ground, risking a full-scale return to widespread violence.

Egypt

Security forces wielding batons and firing teargas clashed on 19 December with rock-throwing demonstrators who continue to call for an end to military rule. At least one person was killed in the latest clashes, bringing the total number of casualties in the recent spate of violence to 11. The demonstrations have been largely confined to the Midan Tahrir area of the city; however, there is potential for clashes to spill-over into adjoining streets in the downtown area.

Kazakhstan

15 people were reportedly killed following riots in the western region of Mangistau. The unrest was sparked on 16 December by striking oil workers in the town of Zhanaozen during independence celebrations; the violence subsequently spread to Shetpe and the regional capital, Aktau. Security personnel are likely to take an increasingly heavy-handed approach to quelling any further possible outbreaks of unrest.

North Korea

Kim Jong Il's abrupt death leaves his son Jong Un as his designated heir, although attention is likely to focus on his brother-in-law Jang Song Taek, who is expected to act as caretaker while Kim Jong Un consolidates control. South Korea’s military, supported by 28,500 US troops, is currently on high alert as developments are monitored. The current expectation is for a continuation of the status quo, where Pyongyang will continue to use its nuclear programme to leverage foreign aid where the potential for increased foreign policy tensions and the possibility of small scale military attacks on South Korea continues. It is likely the DPRK’s foreign policy will remain erratic.

US

President Obama has signed in a spending bill which will avoid forcing the closedown of certain government agencies such as defence and labour, as previously agreed. The move prevents tax rises for most workers but protects the emergency welfare benefits currently received by millions of Americans. Although the legislative battles on Capitol Hill are expected to continue, this bill provides for government financing through to September 2012, which will come as a relief to Obama as he heads into the elections.

_____________________________________________

Source: AKE