Monday, December 19, 2011

World Risk Updates


Bahrain
Security forces dispersed several hundred Shia demonstrators near the capital Manama on 18 December. The demonstrators gathered near a roundabout on the Budaiya highway for the fourth day in a row, until police stormed the area forcing them out. Tensions continue to simmer in Bahrain and are unlikely to dissipate until the opposition feel that they are being listened to by the government.

Côte d’Ivoire
Following a local dispute, at least six people were killed by the government's new army, the Republican Forces of Côte d’Ivoire, after armed youths raided military barracks on 17 December in Vavoua in the west. The undisciplined and fragile nature of the country's armed forces - comprised of former warring factions - has sparked regular clashes since the end of post-election hostilties. Rebuilding the security apparatus is President Ouattara's biggest challenge.

DRC
After the Supreme Court confirmed Kabila's re-election, opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi called for the DRC armed forces to stop obeying Kabila. Kabila is due to be sworn in on 20 December, but Tshisekedi has declared himself president. Tshisekedi has departed from conciliatory calls for peaceful protest and is stepping on dangerous ground, risking a full-scale return to widespread violence.

Egypt
Security forces wielding batons and firing teargas clashed on 19 December with rock-throwing demonstrators who continue to call for an end to military rule. At least one person was killed in the latest clashes, bringing the total number of casualties in the recent spate of violence to 11. The demonstrations have been largely confined to the Midan Tahrir area of the city; however, there is potential for clashes to spill-over into adjoining streets in the downtown area.

Kazakhstan
15 people were reportedly killed following riots in the western region of Mangistau. The unrest was sparked on 16 December by striking oil workers in the town of Zhanaozen during independence celebrations; the violence subsequently spread to Shetpe and the regional capital, Aktau. Security personnel are likely to take an increasingly heavy-handed approach to quelling any further possible outbreaks of unrest.

North Korea
Kim Jong Il's abrupt death leaves his son Jong Un as his designated heir, although attention is likely to focus on his brother-in-law Jang Song Taek, who is expected to act as caretaker while Kim Jong Un consolidates control. South Korea’s military, supported by 28,500 US troops, is currently on high alert as developments are monitored. The current expectation is for a continuation of the status quo, where Pyongyang will continue to use its nuclear programme to leverage foreign aid where the potential for increased foreign policy tensions and the possibility of small scale military attacks on South Korea continues. It is likely the DPRK’s foreign policy will remain erratic.

US
President Obama has signed in a spending bill which will avoid forcing the closedown of certain government agencies such as defence and labour, as previously agreed. The move prevents tax rises for most workers but protects the emergency welfare benefits currently received by millions of Americans. Although the legislative battles on Capitol Hill are expected to continue, this bill provides for government financing through to September 2012, which will come as a relief to Obama as he heads into the elections.
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Source: AKE

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