Libya Update, 20 January 2012

Summary
Conditions in Tripoli and Benghazi are currently calm but sporadic clashes should be anticipated in towns along the Mediterranean coast, particularly those liberated by outsider militia forces. The Gharyan-Assabia area south of Tripoli saw clashes between rival militia fighters on 13-14 January for example. AKE has also received unconfirmed reports that foreign nationals have been briefly detained in the Sabha area. Caution should be exercised in the southern desert region. Reporting conditions are poor and there is little in the way of an official security force presence in the area.
 


Projections
Tripoli will remain stable although there is a risk of further sporadic clashes involving different militia groups, which maintain a presence in some outlying areas of the city.

The process of integrating militia groups into the national army will continue, although it may be some time before an NTC-controlled body is in control of the entire city.

The risk of clashes in other major cities along the Mediterranean coast will also remain. Those cities that were liberated by outside forces, including Sirte, Gharyan, Bani Walid, Bin Jawad and Brega are more at risk of inter-factional tensions.

Benghazi will remain calm and there is less risk of inter-factional clashes than in other major cities.

Tripoli
Conditions remain outwardly calm in Tripoli. There are no longer large numbers of militia fighters roaming the streets and AKE personnel on the ground describe conditions as favourable, organised and relatively peaceful. There will remain the risk of sporadic clashes between rival militia groups if they return to the city – which will remain a likelihood over the transition period of the coming months. There is also the ongoing potential for terrorist attacks by supporters of the former regime.

Gharyan
Two people were killed and at least 16 others were wounded on 13 and 14 January during clashes between rival militia groups near the town of Gharyan, south of Tripoli. A Gharyan city council spokesman stated that fighters from the nearby town of Assabia, which he claimed was home to at least 70 known former Gaddafi loyalists, had fired artillery at Gharyan, provoking a response from local militiamen. Defence Minister Osama al-Juwali reportedly contacted officials in Gharyan and requested that they cease firing. AKE continues to warn of the risk posed by sporadic clashes throughout the country. Those areas where local rivalries are inflamed by the recent arming of local militias are proving to be particularly susceptible to sporadic fighting, and a number of clashes have occurred in the west of the country, to the south and west of the capital Tripoli.

Sabha
There have been a number of rumours of unlawful summary detentions of foreign personnel in the Sabha area. Although no details have yet been confirmed, personnel operating in the region are advised to maintain a high level of vigilance in and around the southern desert region. Those rumoured to be detained were reportedly released soon afterwards. The reports however, could not be independently verified. Security is being provided by militia groups from Zintan and movement around the area will be greatly improved if personnel travel with a Zintani guide, or a Libyan national with contacts among the militia group.

National Police Force
Libya’s Interior Ministry opened its doors on 14 January to members of the country’s militia groups looking to sign up to a national police force. However, after 24-hours, only 100 new recruits had signed up, demonstrating the challenge facing the NTC in amalgamating the militias under a single, centrally controlled umbrella. The majority of those who did sign up were from smaller militias which lacked the power to threaten the authority of the NTC. Those from the larger militia groups, particularly those from Zintan, Misrata and Benghazi, have remained reluctant to disband for fear of losing their ability to influence events, and ostensibly to safeguard the revolution from any remaining pro-Gaddafi groups.

Political Section
Twelve moderate Islamist parties have voiced their opposition to the proposed election law, published by the NTC on 2 January, claiming that by forcing candidates to run as independents in the upcoming polls, it will encourage voting along tribal lines and give undue influence to the wealthy. As Libya currently has no law regulating political parties, and no parties of any merit currently exist in the country, candidates may increasingly rely on tribal power and affiliation to win seats. This would risk alienating smaller tribal and ethnic groups in the country such as the Berbers, increasing the likelihood of inter-communal tensions following the polls.


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Source: AKE

AKE Representation
AKE’s Middle East specialist Alan Fraser is currently in Libya, studying security conditions, particularly those affecting reconstruction, business travellers and the energy sector. He will also be participating in an AKE assessment of security conditions around oil infrastructure in the country. The completed report will likely be of interest to many. If you or any of your colleagues would like to know more about the assessment or our work in Libya please contact intel@akegroup.com. If you would like to arrange a meeting with AKE in the country please send an email directly toalan.fraser@akegroup.com.

Libya Risk report is out !

 

Summary

The risk of clashes involving militia groups in the capital will increase as a deadline for groups from outside the city to leave approaches, there is an ongoing risk of further demonstrations in both Tripoli and Benghazi. The Ras Ajedir border crossing between Libya and Tunisia fully opened on 19 December after being closed on 30 November following clashes on the border. Tensions are still reported to be higher in Sirte than the majority of other major cities, and the presence of Misratan militia groups patrolling the streets has the potential to heighten tensions. Meanwhile, the UN Security Council, US and EU lifted sanctions on the Libyan Central Bank and its subsidiary the Libyan Foreign Bank (LFB) over the last week. 

Tripoli

There is an ongoing risk of clashes involving the various militia groups in the capital, the risk will increase over the coming week as a deadline for groups from outside the city to leave approaches. Demonstrations in support of the deadline are also likely, although these will likely remain non-violent. Some demonstrations by militiamen calling for more pay sprang up around hotels housing Western media personnel in recent months and AKE assesses that the risk of continued protests of this nature remains. Government buildings, particularly the Interior Ministry, are also at risk of being targeted by demonstrators; however, so far these protests have also remained non-violent. 

Benghazi

AKE assesses that there is an ongoing risk of further demonstrations in Benghazi, most of which will be focused in central areas of the city, particularly Sharjah square. There are also concerns over levels of crime in the city, which increased following the ousting of pro-Gaddafi forces in February. 

The Borders

The Ras Ajedir border crossing between Libya and Tunisia fully opened on 19 December after being closed on 30 November following clashes and an increase in attacks on the border from the Libyan side. The violence, which Tunisian border guards claimed involved Libyan militia groups firing on Tunisian border posts, affected both the Ras Ajedir and Dehiba border crossings.     

                            

Sirte

Although the city continues the slow process of rebuilding, tensions are still reported to be higher here than the majority of other major cities. Areas of the city sustained substantial damage in the final siege of the city, particularly District Two, which was the last bastion of Gaddafi supporters in the city. In many areas of the city AKE sources on the ground have reported ongoing frustrations and a lack of the upbeat revolutionary fervour that can be seen elsewhere. One sign of this is the relative lack of revolutionary flags to be found in the city compared to other major cities. Fighters from Misrata continue to patrol the streets, and this could be a source of increasing tensions over the short term as some reports indicate growing frustration at what many locals call the Misratan occupation of their city. As is the case in many of the major cities that are patrolled by militia groups from elsewhere, there is an ongoing risk of clashes and demonstrations by locals calling for the outsider to leave. 

Political

The UN Security Council lifted sanctions on the Libyan Central Bank and its subsidiary the Libyan Foreign Bank (LFB) on 16 December. The move will allow tens of billions of dollars of assets held abroad to be unfrozen, helping to address an acute cash flow crisis within the government and Central Bank itself. Meanwhile, the US followed the UN move by lifting most of the sanctions it had placed on the government and the Central Bank. The EU then followed suit on 21 December, by lifting sanctions on the both institutions. However, an EU statement confirmed that a partial freeze of assets of the Libyan Investment Authority and Libya Africa Investment Portfolio imposed on 16 September, before the overthrow of 

Muammar Gaddafi, would remain in force.

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Source: AKE