Libya Risk report is out !

 

Summary

The risk of clashes involving militia groups in the capital will increase as a deadline for groups from outside the city to leave approaches, there is an ongoing risk of further demonstrations in both Tripoli and Benghazi. The Ras Ajedir border crossing between Libya and Tunisia fully opened on 19 December after being closed on 30 November following clashes on the border. Tensions are still reported to be higher in Sirte than the majority of other major cities, and the presence of Misratan militia groups patrolling the streets has the potential to heighten tensions. Meanwhile, the UN Security Council, US and EU lifted sanctions on the Libyan Central Bank and its subsidiary the Libyan Foreign Bank (LFB) over the last week. 

Tripoli

There is an ongoing risk of clashes involving the various militia groups in the capital, the risk will increase over the coming week as a deadline for groups from outside the city to leave approaches. Demonstrations in support of the deadline are also likely, although these will likely remain non-violent. Some demonstrations by militiamen calling for more pay sprang up around hotels housing Western media personnel in recent months and AKE assesses that the risk of continued protests of this nature remains. Government buildings, particularly the Interior Ministry, are also at risk of being targeted by demonstrators; however, so far these protests have also remained non-violent. 

Benghazi

AKE assesses that there is an ongoing risk of further demonstrations in Benghazi, most of which will be focused in central areas of the city, particularly Sharjah square. There are also concerns over levels of crime in the city, which increased following the ousting of pro-Gaddafi forces in February. 

The Borders

The Ras Ajedir border crossing between Libya and Tunisia fully opened on 19 December after being closed on 30 November following clashes and an increase in attacks on the border from the Libyan side. The violence, which Tunisian border guards claimed involved Libyan militia groups firing on Tunisian border posts, affected both the Ras Ajedir and Dehiba border crossings.     

                            

Sirte

Although the city continues the slow process of rebuilding, tensions are still reported to be higher here than the majority of other major cities. Areas of the city sustained substantial damage in the final siege of the city, particularly District Two, which was the last bastion of Gaddafi supporters in the city. In many areas of the city AKE sources on the ground have reported ongoing frustrations and a lack of the upbeat revolutionary fervour that can be seen elsewhere. One sign of this is the relative lack of revolutionary flags to be found in the city compared to other major cities. Fighters from Misrata continue to patrol the streets, and this could be a source of increasing tensions over the short term as some reports indicate growing frustration at what many locals call the Misratan occupation of their city. As is the case in many of the major cities that are patrolled by militia groups from elsewhere, there is an ongoing risk of clashes and demonstrations by locals calling for the outsider to leave. 

Political

The UN Security Council lifted sanctions on the Libyan Central Bank and its subsidiary the Libyan Foreign Bank (LFB) on 16 December. The move will allow tens of billions of dollars of assets held abroad to be unfrozen, helping to address an acute cash flow crisis within the government and Central Bank itself. Meanwhile, the US followed the UN move by lifting most of the sanctions it had placed on the government and the Central Bank. The EU then followed suit on 21 December, by lifting sanctions on the both institutions. However, an EU statement confirmed that a partial freeze of assets of the Libyan Investment Authority and Libya Africa Investment Portfolio imposed on 16 September, before the overthrow of 

Muammar Gaddafi, would remain in force.

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Source: AKE