SummaryA French ex-serviceman was shot dead in his apartment in Tripoli on 8 January by an unidentified assailant; further details on the incident remain unclear. Tripoli in general is assessed to be safe, although there is an ongoing risk of further sporadic clashes. A government committee assigned to help integrate former rebel fighters back into civilian life is to be allocated an initial budget of US$8bln. A senior National Oil Corporation (NOC) official stated on 12 January that oil exports are set to rise to 800,000 bpd in January 2012. Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has reportedly accepted in principle a request by the National Transitional Council (NTC) to try Saif al-Islam Gaddafi in the country, and Foreign Minister Ashour Bin Khayal stated that Libya has received around US$20bln of funds frozen following the imposition of UN sanctions.ProjectionsTripoli will remain stable although there is a risk of further sporadic clashes involving different militia groups, which maintain a presence in some outlying areas of the city. The process of integrating militia groups into the national army will continue, although it may be some time before an NTC-controlled body is in control of the entire city.
The risk of clashes in other major cities along the Mediterranean coast will also remain. Those cities that were liberated by outside forces, including Sirte, Bani Walid, Bin Jawad and Brega, are more at risk of inter-factional tensions. Benghazi will also remain calm and there is less risk of inter-factional clashes than in other major cities.
The NTC will continue the process of integrating former rebel fighters into national security forces and wider society. Further investment in this area is likely given the size of the challenge.TripoliOn 8 January a French ex-serviceman was shot dead in his apartment by an unidentified assailant. The man, who had retired from the military, was reportedly working in Libya, although further details surrounding the incident were unclear. The killing was an isolated incident and there is no evidence that Western personnel operating in the city could become targets.
The security situation in Tripoli remains stable. AKE sources on the ground have previously highlighted the reduced presence of militia groups on the streets and a significant reduction in the number of checkpoints in the city over the last month. The majority of the armed security presence in the city is ostensibly operating under the national army umbrella. Most of those fighters who make up the national army in the city previously belonged to militia brigades from Tripoli; however, it also includes fighters from Benghazi and Misrata. The police presence in the city remains low, and the visible presence appears at times to be limited to traffic direction. However, the presence is likely to increase over the coming months as the city continues to return to normal.
The International Airport remains under the control of Zintan militiamen, and there are reported to be other militia groups present in outlying areas of the city. The transition towards a unified centrally-controlled security force in the capital has made significant progress in recent months, although further steps are required to create a lasting solution, with militia groups remaining in control of significant areas of territory. AKE sources on the ground assess that the risk of sporadic clashes involving militia groups remains, as does the potential for revenge operations by militiamen targeting alleged Gaddafi loyalists.Rebel FightersA government committee, the Warriors Affairs Committee, will be assigned to help integrate former rebel fighters back into civilian life and will be allocated an initial budget of US$8bln, according to the head of the new committee, Moustafa al-Sagizli. He also stated that each government ministry will be allocating around US$2bln to fund volunteers to travel abroad for language and computer training, and to give micro-credit loans to help find work and start new businesses.
AKE has long highlighted that the greatest challenge facing the NTC will be reintegrating back into society the tens of thousands of rebel fighters who liberated the country from the regime of Muammar Gaddafi. The latest statement demonstrates that the interim regime is aware of the size of the challenge; however, militiamen who continue to occupy a number of major cities and are providing security to the southern oilfields will be reluctant to hand over their arms in return for promises of investment, and will require tangible benefits.Oil exportsA senior National Oil Corporation (NOC) official stated on 12 January that oil exports are set to rise to 800,000 bpd in January 2012. The NOC expects to deliver between 40 and 45 cargoes of crude in January. In December 2011 the NOC agreed to sell cargoes to trading houses Glencore, Vitol, Gunvor and Trafigura, breaking with the tradition of allowing oil majors exclusive access to its export cargoes. However, oil majors will still export the vast majority of Libyan crude.
The source also stated that power generation was holding back the return to production of a number of fields in the south of the country, and that once the power problem was solved, production would be able to return to pre-conflict levels.Saif al Islam TrialMinister of Justice Ali Humaida Ashour stated on 12 January that the ICC had accepted in principle the request by Libyan authorities to try Saif al-Islam Gaddafi in the country and that a final decision would be made within weeks.
Ashour also stated that Saif al-Islam would be tried on charges of mismanagement of public funds, homicide and rape, and if convicted he could face the death penalty. Human Rights Watch has repeatedly called for Saif al-Islam to be given access to a lawyer and Ashour confirmed that Saif would be allowed to hire a lawyer of his choosing.Political SectionLibya officially lifted trade and economic sanctions that were imposed on Switzerland and Lebanon by the former regime. The move is expected to encourage business between the countries, particularly in the energy sector and in post-war reconstruction.
Foreign Minister Ashour Bin Khayal stated on 10 January that Libya has received around US$20bln in assets that were held overseas by the regime of Muammar Gaddafi and were frozen following the imposition of sanctions by the international community. An estimated US$150bln was frozen during the conflict and most of that made available to the new regime has come from the US, France and a number of other European states. Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed Abdul Aziz stated that a number of other countries, including Italy, Japan, Spain, France, Britain and the US are continuing to work on the unfreezing of blocked assets, which will be used to invest heavily in the rebuilding process, particularly in the areas of infrastructure, construction and the oil and gas sector.
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Source: AKE, INTAKE
The risk of clashes in other major cities along the Mediterranean coast will also remain. Those cities that were liberated by outside forces, including Sirte, Bani Walid, Bin Jawad and Brega, are more at risk of inter-factional tensions. Benghazi will also remain calm and there is less risk of inter-factional clashes than in other major cities.
The NTC will continue the process of integrating former rebel fighters into national security forces and wider society. Further investment in this area is likely given the size of the challenge.TripoliOn 8 January a French ex-serviceman was shot dead in his apartment by an unidentified assailant. The man, who had retired from the military, was reportedly working in Libya, although further details surrounding the incident were unclear. The killing was an isolated incident and there is no evidence that Western personnel operating in the city could become targets.
The security situation in Tripoli remains stable. AKE sources on the ground have previously highlighted the reduced presence of militia groups on the streets and a significant reduction in the number of checkpoints in the city over the last month. The majority of the armed security presence in the city is ostensibly operating under the national army umbrella. Most of those fighters who make up the national army in the city previously belonged to militia brigades from Tripoli; however, it also includes fighters from Benghazi and Misrata. The police presence in the city remains low, and the visible presence appears at times to be limited to traffic direction. However, the presence is likely to increase over the coming months as the city continues to return to normal.
The International Airport remains under the control of Zintan militiamen, and there are reported to be other militia groups present in outlying areas of the city. The transition towards a unified centrally-controlled security force in the capital has made significant progress in recent months, although further steps are required to create a lasting solution, with militia groups remaining in control of significant areas of territory. AKE sources on the ground assess that the risk of sporadic clashes involving militia groups remains, as does the potential for revenge operations by militiamen targeting alleged Gaddafi loyalists.Rebel FightersA government committee, the Warriors Affairs Committee, will be assigned to help integrate former rebel fighters back into civilian life and will be allocated an initial budget of US$8bln, according to the head of the new committee, Moustafa al-Sagizli. He also stated that each government ministry will be allocating around US$2bln to fund volunteers to travel abroad for language and computer training, and to give micro-credit loans to help find work and start new businesses.
AKE has long highlighted that the greatest challenge facing the NTC will be reintegrating back into society the tens of thousands of rebel fighters who liberated the country from the regime of Muammar Gaddafi. The latest statement demonstrates that the interim regime is aware of the size of the challenge; however, militiamen who continue to occupy a number of major cities and are providing security to the southern oilfields will be reluctant to hand over their arms in return for promises of investment, and will require tangible benefits.Oil exportsA senior National Oil Corporation (NOC) official stated on 12 January that oil exports are set to rise to 800,000 bpd in January 2012. The NOC expects to deliver between 40 and 45 cargoes of crude in January. In December 2011 the NOC agreed to sell cargoes to trading houses Glencore, Vitol, Gunvor and Trafigura, breaking with the tradition of allowing oil majors exclusive access to its export cargoes. However, oil majors will still export the vast majority of Libyan crude.
The source also stated that power generation was holding back the return to production of a number of fields in the south of the country, and that once the power problem was solved, production would be able to return to pre-conflict levels.Saif al Islam TrialMinister of Justice Ali Humaida Ashour stated on 12 January that the ICC had accepted in principle the request by Libyan authorities to try Saif al-Islam Gaddafi in the country and that a final decision would be made within weeks.
Ashour also stated that Saif al-Islam would be tried on charges of mismanagement of public funds, homicide and rape, and if convicted he could face the death penalty. Human Rights Watch has repeatedly called for Saif al-Islam to be given access to a lawyer and Ashour confirmed that Saif would be allowed to hire a lawyer of his choosing.Political SectionLibya officially lifted trade and economic sanctions that were imposed on Switzerland and Lebanon by the former regime. The move is expected to encourage business between the countries, particularly in the energy sector and in post-war reconstruction.
Foreign Minister Ashour Bin Khayal stated on 10 January that Libya has received around US$20bln in assets that were held overseas by the regime of Muammar Gaddafi and were frozen following the imposition of sanctions by the international community. An estimated US$150bln was frozen during the conflict and most of that made available to the new regime has come from the US, France and a number of other European states. Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed Abdul Aziz stated that a number of other countries, including Italy, Japan, Spain, France, Britain and the US are continuing to work on the unfreezing of blocked assets, which will be used to invest heavily in the rebuilding process, particularly in the areas of infrastructure, construction and the oil and gas sector.
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Source: AKE, INTAKE
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