Risk Updates

Guatemala

The newly sworn-in president, Otto Perez Molina, has pledged to join Mexico and Honduras in using the army to counter the growing violence in the country associated with organised crime. His announcement came a day after a Congressman was shot dead by unidentified gunmen, reportedly for seeking to switch to Perez's ruling party. Violence in the country is likely to worsen in the short-term, especially in the northeast.

Kosovo

Police clashed with protesters on 14 January close to the Serbia-Kosovo Merdare border crossing during a rally against the import of Serbian goods; clashes were also reported at the Konculj crossing.  Radical self-determination group Vetevendosje had announced its intention to block the border and flow of goods and the northern Kosovo border area will remain volatile in the short term.

Libya

Two people were killed and at least 16 others were wounded on 13 and 14 January during clashes between rival militia groups near the town of Gharyan, south of the capital Tripoli. A Gharyan city council spokesman stated that fighters from the nearby town of Assabia, which he claimed was home to at least 70 known former Gaddafi loyalists, had fired artillery at Gharyan, provoking a response from local militiamen. AKE continues to warn of the risk posed by sporadic clashes throughout the country.

Nigeria  

President Jonathan partially reinstated the fuel subsidy at a reduced rate after late-night talks on 15 January. The unions subsequently urged their members to stay off the streets but maintained that the strike was still in place pending further government talks. The unions will continue trying to extract further concessions, while the government maintains its commitment to deregulating the downstream sector. A period of political brinkmanship may ensue.

Taiwan

After securing a second term in the presidential elections with nearly 52 per cent of the vote, Ma Ying-Jeou will now have to maintain the delicate balance in cross-strait Chinese relations. Voters that support the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who received 46 per cent of the vote, will remain concerned over Taiwan’s growing dependence on the mainland.

Qatar

Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani stated on 14 January that he was in favour of Arab nations intervening in Syria. The statement came during an interview with US broadcaster CBS. Al-Thani stated that in order to stop the killing, some Arab troops should be deployed to the country. The statement was the first of its kind from any Arab leader, and is unlikely to have the backing of the majority of Arab states, in the short-term at least.

Yemen

Security officials stated on 15 January that dozens of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) militants had taken control of the town of Radda in al-Baydah province, south east of the capital Sanaa on 15 January. The development marks the first time AQAP-linked militants have been able to expand their control outside southern Abyan province.