Friday, January 13, 2012

World Risk Updates, 09 January 2012


China – Philippines
The Philippines accused China of violating the 2002 ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea after Chinese vessels were spotted inside the Philippine territory in the Spratly Islands, an area also claimed as part of Chinese territory.
Germany
Germany’s President Christian Wulff continues to come under increasing pressure following allegations of a loan scandal. The President has so far rejected calls for his resignation but his political support could be waning as opposition leaders indicate they are willing to find a consensus candidate. His resignation could spark a crisis for Merkel’s coalition government as it struggles to maintain domestic support for its response to the Eurozone crisis.
Iran
Official reports stated that an additional major uranium enrichment facility will be established in a protected underground site near Qom. Enrichment and underground nuclear facilities are nothing new in Iran but the dispersal of such facilities in more than one well-defended site will make any military response by foreign countries much more difficult, thus strengthening Iran’s position on the nuclear issue.
Nigeria
Unknown gunmen killed at least 21 people, reportedly southern Christian worshippers, on 6 January in Adamawa state. Only a few days after Boko Haram’s threat for all Christians to leave the north expired, informal groups seem to be using publicly voiced sectarianism to conduct attacks on religious communities. The prospect of Christian groups arming themselves in the face of an ineffective state security response cannot be discounted.  
Peru-Venezuela
Petroperu has announced that it will invest in new project in the Orinoco belt. Although new President Ollanta Humala has been keen to downplay his links to President Chavez, a former mentor, the new ties, which represent a potentially hazardous investment, underline the ideological as opposed to pragmatic bonds between the two.
Philippines
More than 3 million Catholic worshippers marched through Manila on 9 January in an annual procession, despite a warning from President Benigno Aquino III that Abu Sayyaf (ASG) may try and target the marchers. Around 15,000 policemen have been deployed around the capital, amid the threat that there may be a growing likelihood that terrorists are looking further north to hit Manila.
Yemen
Cabinet proposed a draft immunity law protecting President Ali Abdullah Saleh, his family and aides from prosecution. It is still to be approved in parliament but many Yemenis are angry following extensive violence at the hands of the security forces, blamed on Saleh and members of his family. The UN also criticised the proposal as a violation of international law.
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Source: AKE

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