Monday, December 5, 2011

Worldwide Risk Updates 5,Dec. 11


Afghanistan 
suicide bomber killed three and injured around 70 after he tried to penetrate the outer perimeter of Combat Outpost McClain. The attack is suspected to be the work of the Haqqani network, after an ISAF mission captured the commander they allege to be responsible. The significance of the attack is drawn from its location; Logar province, along with Wardak, is seen to be crucial in terms of its position to ensure long term security in Kabul. The fact that this is the second large attack in six weeks in the region suggests that that insurgents can relatively easily carry out attacks in the future and that travel to bases in Logar and Wardak, particularly when entering and exiting, is considered high risk.

Bahrain
An improvised explosive device (IED), placed under a vehicle by unidentified militants, was detonated near the British embassy in the capital Manama on 4 December. No casualties were reported following the incident, which comes amid ongoing tensions and anti-government demonstrations in and around the capital.
Egypt
The Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party is expected to be the major winner from the first round of elections to the country’s lower house. Egyptians are scheduled to return to the polls on 5 December for run-off votes that will conclude the first round of voting. Another two rounds will be held for other parts of the country, and will conclude on 11 January. The Salafist al-Nour Party is also expected to perform well in the first round, a result that may add to uncertainty among investors and the business community.
 

Libya-Tunisia
Tunisia closed all its border crossing points with Libya on 4 December following clashes between militiamen and border guards at the Dehiba border crossing which leads to the Nafusa Mountains region of Libya. The main crossing at Ras Ajidir was also closed following the clash, which led Deputy Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagur to promise measures will be put in place to secure both crossings.

Pakistan
As reported in the last two AKE Kidnap reports, kidnappers in Pakistan are increasingly targetingBritish citizens of Pakistani origin returning for business or to visit family. The UK Serious Organised Crimes Agency reported a three-fold leap in the number taken between 2006 and 2008, while incomplete data is likely to mean that the actual figure is higher. Please email intel@akegroup.comfor more information regarding our Kidnap Report and quarterly brief.
Russia
Exit polls indicate that ruling United Russia party is set to lose its constitutional majority in the State Duma, although is likely to retain a simple majority amidst allegations of widespread electoral fraud. The result will come as a blow to Prime Minister Putin, who is to run in presidential elections in March, although he is still unlikely to face any real opposition. President Medvedev is set to see his legitimacy fall, and plans to install him as Prime Minister under a Putin presidency are likely to come under increased scrutiny.

Serbia-Kosovo
Serbia and Kosovo agreed on 2 December to cooperate over their volatile common border in an agreement which is set to see the gradual establishing of integrated crossing points. A number of KFOR personnel had been injured in skirmishes in recent weeks and the stalemate had been seen as hindering Belgrade's EU aspirations. Serbian President Tadic has now called on Serb Kosovars to respect the deal, in the hopes that Serbia will be able to fulfill EU candidacy conditions.





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Resource: AKE Intel.

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